Os limites do crescimento econômico brasileiro

A record 115 vessels were waiting to load 3.53 million metric tons of sugar at Brazil’s six main ports on July 27, according to consultant Santos Associados Consultoria Ltda. and shipping company Unimar Agenciamentos Maritimos Ltda. Loading may be delayed further because of a week of rainfall starting Aug. 1, Celso Oliveira, a meteorologist for Somar Meteorologia, said yesterday.
fonte

Como a natureza limpa o mar

Where is all the oil? Nearly two weeks after BP finally capped the biggest oil spill in U.S. history, the oil slicks that once spread across thousands of miles of the Gulf of Mexico have largely disappeared. Nor has much oil washed up on the sandy beaches and marshes along the Louisiana coast...
Perhaps the most important cause of the oil’s disappearance, some researchers suspect, is that the oil has been devoured by microbes. The lesson from past spills is that the lion’s share of the cleanup work is done by nature in the form of oil-eating bacteria and fungi. The microbes break down the hydrocarbons in oil to use as fuel to grow and reproduce. A bit of oil in the water is like a feeding frenzy, causing microbial populations to grow exponentially...
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Sobre Keynes e os Keynesianos

Niall Ferguson: "... It was said of the Bourbons that they forgot nothing and learned nothing. The same could easily be said of some of today’s latter-day Keynesians. They cannot and never will forget the policy errors made in the US in the 1930s. But they appear to have learned nothing from all that has happened in economic theory since the publication of their bible, John Maynard Keynes’s The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, in 1936...
Those economists, like New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who liken confidence to an imaginary “fairy” have failed to learn from decades of economic research on expectations. They also seem not to have noticed that the big academic winners of this crisis have been the proponents of behavioural finance, in which the ups and downs of human psychology are the key..."
Fonte: Financial Times

O real está ainda sobre-valorizado diz o índice Big Mac

Leia mais sobre o "Big Mac Index" que mede em um produto a paridade de poder de compra entre diferentes moedas e quando se compara esta paridade com a taxa atual nominal, se nota sobre- e sub-valorizações. Note a sobre-valorização do real contra a forte sub-valorização do peso Argentina. Agora vale fazer férias em Argentina.

Aprender economia (e inglês) na forma divertida

Assiste este youtube vídeo de um grupo musical de Texas, Estados Unidos, explicando a crise da dívida soberana da Grécia no estilo da música grega.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-10i8-mtCw&feature=player_embedded#!
Para aprofundar a sério os seus conhecimentos, leia este artigo sobre a crise da dívida grega:
http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/greece-the-canary-in-the-u-s-coal-mine/#

Notas M2 M3

As notas finais estão no sistema, incluindo as notas de substiuição. Verifiquem.
Amanha vou procurar entrar as faltas. Verifiquem até a quinta.

Atividades para as férias

Aprenda economia (e inglès) assistindo estas vídeo palestras:
http://200.0.176.35/gsm/index.php?search=Antony+Mueller

Provas de substiuição Macro II e Macro III

Prova Macro II:
- Demanda e Oferta Agregada
- Expectativas
- Macroeconomia da Economia Aberta

Prova Macro III:
- Crescimento Econômico
- Crises e Depressões
- Política Monetária e Fiscal

Lugar: DID 4 - Sala 007
Horário: Segunda, 19 de Julho 21:00 horas

Prova de Substituição MACRO II e MACRO III

Segunda, 19 de Julho, 21 horas, DID 4, SALA de James Bond (007)

Verifiquem notas no sistema

Por favor, verifiquem as notas publicadas no sistema DAA.
Na quinta nos encontramos Macro 3 e Macro 2 para resolver problemas se existem e falar sobre prova caso falta.
Se para você todo da certa com as notas, não precisa vir, somente no caso para pegar a última prova, se quer.
Ainda não tenho todas as faltas registradas.
Boas férias para todos.

O Brasil é atrasado para a copa 2014?

The Maracana in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, will be central to the 2014 World Cup, but construction has stalled on other projects.

JOHANNESBURG – As South Africa receives pats on the back from around the globe after hosting, against the odds, a mightily successful and historic World Cup, the soccer world’s gaze instinctively turns to the next time around.
And it doesn’t make for pretty viewing.
Brazil has been selected as the host nation for the 2014 World Cup and possesses such deep-rooted passion for soccer that it is a genuine part of the national identity. But the South American country has drastic problems that are threatening to turn preparations for the tournament into a farce.
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Paul ganha a copa

Eight picks, eight correct, eight tentacles. Paul the Oracle Octopus is clearly the biggest winner of the World Cup after recording a perfect prognostication record whether he knows it or not (he probably doesn't).The big question was whether Paul's predictive superpowers would translate to the final - the first match he was asked to predict that did not involve his native Germany. But such piddly concerns did not bother Paul. Mostly because he's an octopus. Just as he predicted, the European champions Spain became world champions for the first time with an Andres Iniesta goal in extra time. And as the Spanish celebrated, Paul floated in his tank, sure of his genius and probably craving a fresh clam.Since Paul is an international celebrity of the highest order now, everyone wants a piece of him - both literally and figuratively. Italy is trying to claim that he was caught in Italian waters, Spanish businessmen are trying to buy him for €30,000 ($38,000), and Dutch priests tried to dismiss him.
But in Spain, Paul is an icon. The Spanish prime minister has already spoken of his desire to protect "Pulpo Paul" and the mock up of a new version of Spain's flag could be dangerously close to becoming real.So what becomes of Paul now? Well, he'll probably continue to live out the remainder of his days at the Sea Life aquarium in Oberhausen, Germany, no longer forced to pick his food out of flag-covered boxes while surrounded by an obscene number of media types. He will swim at his leisure and continue to be oblivious to the existence of sports. He will retire a winner and a global sensation - what every other octopus (and even a few pundits) wishes they could be. All hail Paul. Fonte
Use google trandutor para traduzir

Segue aqui o novo desenho da bandeira de Espanha

A copa termina - o trabalho continua

Prova Macro II: Segunda, 12 de Julho
Prova Macro III: Terça, 13 de Julho

Fim da tranqüilidade

"... Brazil’s bid to wean itself off floating-rate debt, a legacy of 1990s hyperinflation, is faltering as the central bank boosts benchmark borrowing costs from a record low.
The percentage of the government’s 1.59 trillion reais ($896 billion) of debt that was issued at yields tied to the overnight lending rate, known as Selic, climbed to 33.6 percent in May from a record low of 30.7 percent in 2007, according to the Treasury. The increase snaps a decade-long decline that cut the percentage from 62 percent in 1998 and helped the country win investment-grade credit ratings.
The rise in floating-rate debt, which became popular two decades ago when annual inflation climbed above 1,000 percent, may slow Brazil’s efforts to win further rating increases, said Mauro Leos, who heads the Latin America sovereign ratings group at Moody’s Investors Service..."
Texto completo
google tradutor
O que o artigo diz é que o tempo da tranqüilidade está passando. Nos mercados financeiros se calcula que Meirelles vai sair e com o novo governo (Dilma?) os velhos companheiros tomam o poder. Já o conflito entre o BNDES e BCB era um sinal, e agora novos problemas do financiamento do orçamento novamente surgem.  Os mercados financeiros mostram desconfiança.

Controvérsias macroeconômicas atual no Brasil

"... Brazil’s state development bank President Luciano Coutinho rejected criticism that record lending is placing a burden on the central bank to keep inflation in check and slowing the reduction of public debt...
... Central bank President Henrique Meirelles, in an interview with Valor Economico newspaper published today, said that the development bank’s lending may push rates higher because it reduces the efficiency of monetary policy..."
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Use google translate para traduzir o texto que mostra a controvérsia sobre a política macroeconômica no Brasil. 

Macro II - Macro III: NOTAS

Por favor, verifique as suas notas das provas 1 e 2 no sistema DAA

Macro II - Prova 3

1. Taxa de câmbio
a) nominal b) real c) bilateral d) multilateral e) efetiva
apreciação – depreciação
notação comum por exemplo R$/US$
mas diferente de
e = o preço da moeda estrangeira em unidades da moeda doméstica
e por exemplo x US$/1 Real
Taxa de câmbio real ε
ε = EP/P*
Para a análise macroeconômica: taxa de câmbio efetiva (= a taxa de câmbio multilateral real)
2. Balanço de Pagamentos
BP = NXb + NXs + NXII + TR + CF + DE + Δ IR = 0
Conta Corrente: NXb + NXs + NXii + TR
Balanço comercial de bens, de serviços, da renda internacional (investment income ii)
NX na teoria econômica = NXb + NXs + NXII
3. Macroeconomia da economia aberta
Economia aberta com governo
Y = C (Y) + I (i) + G + EX (e) – IM (e, Y)
Y = C + SPR + TA
S = SPR + SGov
S= SPR + (TA – G)
S = I + NX
Componentes de S (savings = poupanca)
Sp = Popanca pessoal
S empresarial
S governamental
S nacional
SNAT = SPR + SGOV
SGOV = TA – G
S = I + NX
NX = S – I
(EX – IM) = (S – I)
Analise setorial
Y = C + I + G + EX – IM
Y = C + SPR + TA
I + G + NX = SPR + TA
(EX – IM) = (SPR – IPR) + (TA – G)
(EX – IM) : saldo setor externo
(SPR – IPR): saldo setor privado
(TA – G): saldo setor público
Analise do balanco de pagamentos
BP = Conta corrente (bens, servicos, renda e transferencia
unilaterais) + Fluxos de Capitais + Erros e Omissoes + Variacao
das reservas internacionais
Em forma reduzida para facilitar analise economica:
BP = NX + CF + ΔR = 0
Com
NX = EX – IM
CF = CIM – CEX
ΔR: debito (!) se as reservas internacionais (R) aumentam, e
credito se as reservas internacionais baixam
Nota:
Com Δ R seja zero
Segue
BP = NX + CF = O
Assim
- NX = CF
NX = - CF
Para manter as reservas, as duas contas (NX e CF) precisam se
compensar
Macroeconomia da economia aberta
Y = C (Y) + I (i) + G + Ex (e) – IM (e, Y)
BP = NX (e, Y) + CF (i, i*)
EX (e) – IM (e, Y) = S (Y) – I (i) + TA – G
Desvalorizar a moeda (e), aumentar a taxa de juros (i), baixar os
gastos governamentais (G)
Curva J
4. Regimes de taxa de câmbio
Modelo Fleming Mundell ISLMBP
Política fiscal expansiva sob condições de câmbio fixo:
G ↑ → i↑ →CF↑ → (e) ↔ M ↑ → i ↓ → Y ↑
Política monetária restritiva sob condições de câmbio fixo:
M ↓ → i ↑ →CF↑ → e ↑ → NX↓ → Y↓

Regime cambial	fixo	flexível
Política fiscal	eficiente	ineficiente
Política monetária	ineficiente	eficiente