Aula hoje Macro III

Por causa de uma reunião departamental, nosso encontro da quarta vai começar hoje as
19:30 horas.
Lugar: Meu escritório no Dept. da Economia.

Aulas Macro III

segunda 19-21 sala 104 bloco 4
quarta 19-21 escritório Admin 1
quinta 17-19 sala 105 bloco 4
quinta 19-21 escritório Admin 1
Porque nossas turmas (só este sementre!) estão tão pequenas, se pode escolher quando participar.
Aproveite de sua chance para obter notas ótimas!

Internet bate TV

Internet bate TV aberta como passatempo nacional

Internet bate TV aberta como passatempo nacional Espectador brasileiro prefere internet e busca web para assistir à televisão A internet virou a forma de entretenimento favorita entre os brasileiros, acabando com o monopólio da televisão. Pelo segundo ano consecutivo, uma pesquisa realizada pela Deloitte no Brasil e em outros quatro países (Estados Unidos, Japão, Alemanha e Reino Unido) mostrou que a web é o passatempo nacional favorito – ao contrário dos estrangeiros, que ainda preferem a TV. O internauta brasileiro gasta em média, por semana, 17 horas assistindo televisão e cerca de 30 horas navegando na internet. Clique para continuar lendo »

Crescimento econômico e dívida pública

"Finding the tipping point -- when sovereign debt turns bad"

Author: Caner, Mehmet; Grennes,Thomas; Koehler-Geib, Fritzi; Collection Title: Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5391 Country: World; Date Stored: 2010/07/30 Document Date: 2010/07/01 Document Type: Policy Research Working Paper Language: English Region: The World Region Report Number: WPS5391 SubTopics: External Debt; Economic Theory & Research; Emerging Markets; Debt Markets; Public Sector Economics Volume No: 1 of 1

Summary: Public debt has surged during the current global economic crisis and is expected to increase further. This development has raised concerns whether public debt is starting to hit levels where it might negatively affect economic growth. Does such a tipping point in public debt exist? How severe would the impact of public debt be on growth beyond this threshold? What happens if debt stays above this threshold for an extended period of time? The present study addresses these questions with the help of threshold estimations based on a yearly dataset of 101 developing and developed economies spanning a time period from 1980 to 2008. The estimations establish a threshold of 77 percent public debt-to-GDP ratio. If debt is above this threshold, each additional percentage point of debt costs 0.017 percentage points of annual real growth. The effect is even more pronounced in emerging markets where the threshold is 64 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. In these countries, the loss in annual real growth with each additional percentage point in public debt amounts to 0.02 percentage points. The cumulative effect on real GDP could be substantial. Importantly, the estimations control for other variables that might impact growth, such as the initial level of per-capita-GDP.

O "take-off" do Brasil

Poupança chinesa

By JIM LANDERS / The Dallas Morning News
jlanders@dallasnews.com BEIJING – China's young bankers and budding economists are part of a wired, frustrated generation looking for their inheritance.
They've enjoyed the savings of their parents to get this far. Now they are looking to collect their due from another source – the money China has loaned to the United States.
The Council on Foreign Relations estimates that China holds at least $1.4 trillion of U.S. debts, plus $231 billion in corporate bonds and equity.
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Japão promove um iene mais fraco

- Japan’s solo run to restrain the yen exposes a flaw at the heart of the global recovery effort: The world’s major economies can’t all export their way to prosperity.
As governments from Tokyo to Washington and Berlin struggle to spur their economies, unemployment and budget deficits are forcing them to pursue policies aimed at harnessing foreign demand. Japan embraced that strategy yesterday by intervening in markets for the first time since 2004 to slow the yen’s climb to a 15-year high against the dollar and protect its exporters. --
Leia mais
Pontos de reflexão: compare a situação de Japão com o Brasil e exlique porque ambos queren a sua moeda mais fraca. Mostre as limitações desta estratégia.

Aulas Macro III

Nesta semana estou viajando (14 de Setembro com volta na segunda 20 de Setembro as 16:40).
Assim não vai ter mais aulas nesta semana.
Para a semana que vem tem os seguintes horários para Macro III com apertura de assister para ambas turmas:
segunda 19-21 sala 104 bloco 4
quarta 19-21 escritório
quinta 17-19 sala 105 bloco 4
quinta 19-21 escritório
Nosso novo tema é cresicmento econômico com progresso tecnológico, cap. 12 Blanchard.

Bônus brasileiro de 30 anos em dólares

Brasil reabre emissão de bônus de 30 anos em dólares

do Folha.com - Em cima da hora - Principal

O Tesouro Nacional anunciou nesta terça-feira que concedeu mandato para a reabertura de bônus denominado em dólares com vencimento em janeiro de 2041. Os títulos serão emitidos nos mercados norte-americano e europeu. De acordo com o informe, o Tesouro Nacional conta com a prerrogativa de dar seguimento à emissão na Ásia, após a abertura do mercado local. Após o fechamento dos mercados da Europa e dos EUA, o Tesouro divulgará os resultados preliminares da emissão. O resultado final será divulgado na manhã desta quarta-feira, após a conclusão da eventual oferta nos mercados da Ásia. Leia mais (14/09/2010 - 10h41)
Leia tambem:
A valorização das moedas latinoamericanas, em especial do real brasileiro, poderá afetar a competitividade das exportações da região e desacelerar o crescimento desses países em 2011, com um impacto negativo para a reativação mundial, estimou nesta terça-feira a Unctad (Conferência da ONU para o Comércio e o Desenvolvimento).
"O perigo, uma vez em certos países latinoamericanos, em particular no Brasil, está vinculado à forte valorização das moedas nos últimos meses", indicou o economista Heiner Flassbeck, ao apresentar o relatório anual da Unctad, em Genebra.
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/798569-valorizacao-de-moedas-locais-coloca-em-risco-crescimento-da-america-latina.shtml

Cuba

-- Cuba anunciou nesta segunda-feira que vai cortar ao menos meio milhão de funcionários públicos até o começo do ano que vem e reduzir as restrições a empreendimentos particulares para ajudá-los a encontrar novos empregos. É a medida mais dramática já anunciada no governo de Raúl Castro para atenuar a grave situação econômica que enfrenta a ilha. Para tentar amenizar o impacto, o governo prometeu aumentar as oportunidades de emprego no setor privado, além de permitir que mais cubanos se tornem autônomos. Eles também poderão formar cooperativas gerenciadas pelos próprios empregados, em vez de pelos administradores do governo. O governo prometeu ainda arrendar cada vez mais terra, negócios e infraestrutura estatal.
Leia mais
Pontos de reflexão: quais são os problemas fundamentais porque "o socialismo não funciona"? Como é a relação com o crescimento econômico?

Crescimento econômico de China

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch forecasts China’s gross domestic product will expand at least 9.4 percent this quarter and 9 percent in the final three months of the year, aiding the global recovery as elevated unemployment caps U.S. growth.
“Domestic demand is robust and the Chinese economy is heading for a smoother and softer landing than people had feared,” said Lu Ting, a Hong Kong-based economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.
Leia mais
Pontos de reflexão: a) raízes do crescimento econômico Chinês b) tipo do crescimento c) sutentabilidade d) consesquencias para China e) consequencias para o Brasil e o resto do mundo

Aulas Online

Aulas Online
Palestras e Entrevistas
A Macroeconomia de Keynes
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Crescimento Econômico
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Macroeconomia de Crises e Depressões
Schumpeter's Teoria do Capitalismo e do Desenvolvimento Econômico
A Macroeconomia de Kalecki
Sociologia Econômica
Economia Global
Comércio Exterior
A Macroeconomia da Economia Aberta
Crescimento Econômico
Demanda e Oferta Agregada (DA/OA)
Fundamentos da Macroeconomia
Fundamentos da Microeconomia
Fundamentos da Teoria Econômica Austríaca
Link Online Campus
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Aulas Macro III

Hoje, 9 de Setembro, tem aulas 17:00 - 19:00 para ambos grupos de Macro III
A semana que vem tem aulas na segunda. 13 de setembro.
O reste da semana não tem aulas porque estou no congresso em La Jolla, California.
As aulas que faltam vamos recuparar com encontros marcados.

Para recursos e aulas online sobre crescimento econômico veja:
http://continentaleconomics.com/AulasOnlineCrescimentoEconomico.html

A nova forma de estudar - economia online

Principles of Economics
Econ101 — with Robert Murphy
COST: $250
LENGTH: TEN WEEKS
DATES: SEPTEMBER 8, 2010 - NOVEMBER 19, 2010
Robert Murphy will teach Principles of Economics in the Fall of 2010 , an online class for all ages that will use his forthcoming book Lessons for the Young Economist. (Professor Murphy discusses his plans for the course in the above video and in his article Learn Principles of Economics Online.) The class will run from September 8 until November 19, ten weeks of fantastic economics instruction from the ground up. His book, which is sure to become a standard text in the future, will be debuted in this class. Enrollment in the class is $250 and covers all materials, weekly lectures, office hours, quizzes, grading, and final exam. The class is designed for high school students, but it is the ideal class for gaining a solid foundation in economic science. The focus is on the Austrian understanding. The knowledge gained will establish a rock-solid basis for all future studies in economics. The goal is to present economics in the same way that it was given to Mises, Hayek, and Rothbard early in their schooling, a paradigm to inspire a lifetime of understanding and scholarship.No prior exposure to economic logic is required. Students may opt out of quizzes, tests, and grading.
He will cover: Thinking Like an Economist, How We Develop Economic Principles, Economic Concepts Implied by Action, "Robinson Crusoe" Economics, The Institution of Private Property, Direct Exchange & Barter Prices, Indirect Exchange and the Appearance of Money, The Division of Labor & Specialization, Entrepreneurship & Competition, Income, Saving, and Investment, Supply & Demand, Interest, Credit, and Debt, Profit & Loss Accounting, The Stock Market, The Failures of Socialism—Theory and History.

The weekly live video-broadcast lectures will be Wednesdays from 7:30 – 9:00pm EDT. Professor Murphy will lecture for 1 hour, and then take questions for 30 minutes.
Also every week Professor Murphy will hold “office hours” (extended question-and-answer sessions) which will be every Saturday from 11am – 2pm EDT, with a 15-minute intermission. Office Hour attendance is NOT required, and students may drop in and out as they please.
Mais informações

Crescimento econômico do Brasil

O crescimento acima do esperado no 2.º trimestre colocou em dúvida o argumento do Banco Central (BC) de que a economia brasileira estaria em processo desaceleração. Para analistas, o dado mostrou que o País continua se expandindo fortemente - ainda que em ritmo inferior ao do 1.º trimestre - e deixou claro que o BC assumiu um risco muito alto ao interromper o ciclo de alta da taxa básica de juros (Selic). A favor do BC pesa o fato de a inflação nos últimos 12 meses estar bem próxima da meta de 4,5%.
Leia mais
Pontos de reflexão:
- quais são as causas do forte crescimento?
- tem dúvidas da sustenabilidade?  Sim - quais?
- consequencias para a taxa de inflação e atuação do Banco Central
- relação com o setor externo
- tem explicações em termos da teoria de crescimento econômico?

Macroeconomia baseada no capital

veja: http://newmedia.ufm.edu/gsm/index.php?title=Muellerinflationmacroeconomic

Crescimento econômico - comentário do Banco Central

-- Brazilian central bank President Henrique Meirelles said he’s “comfortable” with the current pace of economic growth, adding that expansion will slow to a level consistent with long-term equilibrium.
Meirelles said gross domestic product will expand an average 0.7 percent over the next two quarters, after the national statistics agency today said it rose 1.2 percent in the second quarter. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected growth to slow to 0.7 percent in the second quarter from the first three months of 2010, according to the median of 41 forecasts.
“The central bank is comfortable with this growth, which is absolutely in line with predictions,” Meirelles told reporters today in Brasilia. “We expect, looking ahead, moderate growth in the third and fourth quarters, leading to a level of economic growth around its long-term equilibrium rate.”
On an annual basis, GDP expanded 8.8 percent in the second quarter, pushed by a 26.5 percent jump in investment that was the biggest on record, the statistics agency said. --
Leia mais

Crescimento econômico

Por AE, estadao.com.br, Atualizado: 3/9/2010 8:57
IBGE: PIB do 2º trimestre cresce 1,2% ante 1º trimestre
A economia brasileira cresceu 1,2% no segundo trimestre deste ano, na comparação com o primeiro trimestre, informou hoje o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Em relação ao mesmo período de 2009, o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do País subiu 8,8% entre abril e junho deste ano. No primeiro semestre, a economia cresceu 8,9% em relação ao mesmo período do ano passado e, no acumulado dos 12 meses encerrados em junho, houve alta de 5,1%.
O resultado do PIB representa a produção de bens e serviços em todo o País. Considerando os setores, o PIB da indústria apresentou expansão de 1,9% no segundo trimestre deste ano em relação ao trimestre anterior. Na mesma base de comparação, o PIB da agropecuária registrou alta de 2,1%, enquanto o PIB do setor de serviços teve alta de 1,2%. No primeiro trimestre de 2010, a economia havia crescido 2,7% em relação ao trimestre anterior.
Fonte

Crise financeira

Discussão entre Antony Mueller e Rodrigo Constantina sobre as orígens e conseqüências da crise financeira internacional da atualidade. Veja:
http://vimeo.com/14406518

A armadilha brasileira

Brazil's Dilemma
Brazil's economy has lifted 30 million people out of poverty since 2003. Brazil's political culture, however, has made little progress: the political establishment is still mired in cronyism, and voters still cling to the counterproductive policies of the Workers' Party, according to Alvaro Vargas Llosa, editor of Lessons from the Poor and author of Liberty for Latin America.
"Brazilian leaders have long had an 'anti-American' complex," writes Vargas Llosa. "The obsession makes them do things simply because they seem in opposition." Dilma Rousseff, the leading candidate in October's presidential election in October, is no exception.
Some scholars believe that Brazil's statist economic policies originated partly as a reaction to a perceived rejection by the United States. But if Brazilians wish to improve their country, they would do better by embracing an even older tradition--the one that the Baron of Rio Branco, Jose Maria da Silva Paranhos, pioneered in the early 20th century. Adopting this tradition, Vargas Llosa suggests, would enable Brazil's political institutions to keep pace with its fast-growing economy.

"Brazil's Third World Dilemma," by Alvaro Vargas Llosa (8/25/10) Spanish Translation

Liberty for Latin America: How to Undo Five Hundred Years of State Oppression, by Alvaro Vargas Llosa

The Che Guevara Myth and the Future of Liberty, by Alvaro Vargas Llosa

Lessons from the Poor: Triumph of the Entrepreneurial Spirit, edited by Alvaro Vargas

O Brasil vai ruinar a sua riqueza mais uma vez?

Escreve Chris Mayer:
Brazil Screws Up
Dear Capital & Crisis Reader,
Brazilian agriculture looked set to become the breadbasket of the world in the 21st century. It seemed to have everything. Lots of flatland. Plenty of water and sunshine. Already, Brazil is a big exporter of a long list of agricultural items.
I guess Brazil can't stand prosperity, because it just screwed it all up.
The implications will echo far beyond the borders of Brazil. It will have an impact on the world's future food supply and on food prices. And it also raises broader questions about investing in Brazil at all.
On Tuesday, the Brazilian government released new rules -- "immediately binding" -- that restrict foreign ownership of Brazilian land. Worse, the legal rules are so unclear that all such acquisitions since 1988 could be null and void, with the land returned to nationals. Some political groups are saying this is exactly what should be done.
The mainstream papers seem to treat this latter possibility as unlikely. And more moderate political groups also say such a drastic step is unlikely. But I can tell you from talking to people down there in the last few days -- including attorneys -- that local businesspeople are not dismissing that possibility. At best, Brazil is in legal limbo on these questions.
Blame politics. It is an election year in Brazil. The country will vote for a new president on Oct. 3. All indications are that it will be Dilma Rousseff. She is one of the ones who have been highly critical of foreigners buying Brazilian land. "Brazilian land for Brazilians" is the chant.
And there have been a lot of foreigners buying. I wrote to you before about a project in the cerrado that turns scrubland into productive farmland. The economics are very compelling. You get a 100%-plus return in three-four years without leverage using a proven 40-year-old process.
Other folks started to figure this out, too. A group in Hong Kong -- backed by Jacob Rothschild and a pair of Hong Kong tycoons -- raised $179 million to do just what I described in my newsletter. This company, Agrifirma, planned an IPO next year. Then just this month, Macquarie announced a plan to raise as much as $600 million to invest in Brazilian farmland.
There is lots of land in Brazil. The country could double the amount of land under cultivation -- something no other large country could plausibly do. The land is also cheap and potentially very productive. Brazilians can harvest two crops a year, for instance. All these investors are doing the same math. Buy the land. Improve the land. Boom: big returns only a few years later.
Many foreigners are already there. By some estimates, foreigners own or control about 20% of Brazil's cane production. Estimates for some other crops are even higher. Good estimates are tough to come by because many do business through a Brazilian company, even though foreigners own and control it. This is the loophole the government closed with Tuesday's bombshell of an announcement.
In any event, the new rules will freeze agricultural investment in Brazil. This is big news for global food markets because Brazil was such a key part of the equation. Brazil, as I've pointed out, is the world's arable land bank. This is where we'd get the added food supply the world needs.
As Reuters points out, "Brazil's essential role as a provider of food for the world's expanding population is at risk... There are simply no large-scale alternatives to Brazil's unique agriculture potential."
Brazil can't do it alone. Getting the arable land Brazil has to production is a process that takes significant investment and time. Foreigners brought the needed capital. In April alone -- the latest data are available -- foreign investment in Brazilian agriculture was $26 million -- up 225% from a year ago. Between 2002-2008, foreign investors poured nearly $2.5 billion into land alone.
Foreign money also brought the expertise of large-scale and modern farming techniques. Their investment creates jobs for Brazilians. They pay taxes. They raise the value of Brazilian lands. A recent study said that farmland values had increased 54-70% over the last three years in frontier regions.
And of course, foreign money brought more food to the world. What did Brazilians do with Brazilian land before? Nothing. It sat there. And the country was poor and backward.
It looks like Brazil is pining for the old days. Governments are "pathologically stupid," as my friend Doug Casey likes to say. So perhaps this shouldn't be a surprise. Nonetheless, I am always amazed at how readily politicians are so quick to kill the golden geese. (The U.S. government is, sadly, no different.)
It is ominous, too, that this announcement comes during the same year as massive drought sweeps across Europe, killing off crops of all kinds -- but especially Russia's wheat harvest.
Add to that this trend -- in the words of the Financial Times -- "Beijing buys unusually large amounts of corn, soya and rice on the market." Yes, China is now importing corn, and prices in China are at record levels. Soybean imports are double what they were only five years ago. China will import more grain this year than any year since its own crop failures in 1995. It will import about 1 million tonnes, up from only .05 million tonnes last year. --
Chris Mayer: Capital & Crisis, Aug 27, 2010

Palestra sobre a crise financeira internacional

http://vimeo.com/14406518

Política monetária

Veja estas informações do Banco Central Europeu explicando didacticamente a meta monetária e a política monetária:
Desenhos animados sobre política monetária

Prosperidade

"The three pillars on which prosperity is built are sound money, fiscal restraint and free trade."
Antony Mueller