quarta-feira, 31 de outubro de 2012
Contração da economia grega continua
Mais
Desemprego na zona de euro
Desemprego bate recorde na Eurozona a 11,6%
AFPO desemprego na Eurozona aumentou a 11,6% em setembro, um recorde para o bloco, puxado pela Espanha, quarta economia da união monetária e com um índice de paralisação de 25,8%, anunciou a agência europeia de estatísticas, Eurostat.
Mais
terça-feira, 30 de outubro de 2012
Crescimento econômico e educação
Economic Growth Should Precede Education
Few people dispute that pouring public education is good for economic growth.
Well, you just met one. It has always been my contention that case-and-effect are reversed, sic.: poor countries must grow richer so they afford to educate their people.
For countries that boosted average years of education by increasing spending between 1960′s & 1990′s, there was little if any correlation with improved economic performance.
What might be going on here challenges the notion that the provision of education must be controlled by government. Due to incentive problems, it is not surprising that public-sector provision & control of education tends to fail.
In all events, more important than making substantial investments in human capital is to open the economy so that specialization & division of labor can boost productivity.
Certainly, education matters for individuals. But if it allows individuals to improve their conditions, this weakens the argument for taxpayer funds to be used to support education.
Mais
Well, you just met one. It has always been my contention that case-and-effect are reversed, sic.: poor countries must grow richer so they afford to educate their people.
For countries that boosted average years of education by increasing spending between 1960′s & 1990′s, there was little if any correlation with improved economic performance.
What might be going on here challenges the notion that the provision of education must be controlled by government. Due to incentive problems, it is not surprising that public-sector provision & control of education tends to fail.
In all events, more important than making substantial investments in human capital is to open the economy so that specialization & division of labor can boost productivity.
Certainly, education matters for individuals. But if it allows individuals to improve their conditions, this weakens the argument for taxpayer funds to be used to support education.
Mais
Caos intervencionista
"[T]he system under which we live, choked up with attempts at partial planning and restrictionism, is almost as far from any system of capitalism which could be rationally advocated as it is different from any consistent system of planning. It is important to realize in any investigation of the possibilities of planning that it is a fallacy to suppose capitalism as it exists today is the alternative. We are certainly as far from capitalism in its pure form as we are from any system of central planning. The world of today is just interventionist chaos." ("Socialist Calculation I: The Nature of the Problem," reprinted in "Individualism and Economic Order" (1948), p. 136.
Discrepância entre renda e credito imobiliário
Mismatch between credit and income growth exposes issues of Brazil’s housing bubble
Posted on · 13 Comments
(An excerpt from a recent article at Valor Economico)
“In the past few years, the value of houses rose much more than the Brazilians’ income, generating a mismatch between the capacity of families to contract debt and real-estate financing. While the average income of Brazilian workers rose 43% between 2007 and 2011, the average value of financing for acquisition of real estate done by the Housing Finance System, or SFH, which uses funds managed by the government, increased 83%. New financing rules announced recently by Caixa Economica Federal, the state-owned bank that manages most funds to finance housing, tend to ease access of new families to such credit.
In 2007, average loans were R$82,000 and monthly installments were absorbing 42% of an average Brazilian couple’s income, considering a 30-year maturity. Last year, average financing reached R$150,000, with initial installments accounting for 52% of the couples’ income.
Mais
“In the past few years, the value of houses rose much more than the Brazilians’ income, generating a mismatch between the capacity of families to contract debt and real-estate financing. While the average income of Brazilian workers rose 43% between 2007 and 2011, the average value of financing for acquisition of real estate done by the Housing Finance System, or SFH, which uses funds managed by the government, increased 83%. New financing rules announced recently by Caixa Economica Federal, the state-owned bank that manages most funds to finance housing, tend to ease access of new families to such credit.
In 2007, average loans were R$82,000 and monthly installments were absorbing 42% of an average Brazilian couple’s income, considering a 30-year maturity. Last year, average financing reached R$150,000, with initial installments accounting for 52% of the couples’ income.
Mais
Guerra cambial
Simulação da guerra cambial
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=kdPkaCTdxBU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=kdPkaCTdxBU
Política econômica: consequências não intencionais
O prof. Don Boudreaux explica o que economistas querem dizer quando falam sobre consequências não intencionais. Essencialmente, consequências não intencionais são os grandes resultados das ações praticadas por muitos indivíduos. Esses resultados podem ser bons ou ruins. Portanto, quando analisamos várias políticas, precisamos ser extremamente cautelosos em fazer distinção entre intenções e resultados.
Assista
Assista
Política orçamental
Receitas atípicas inflam esforço fiscal do governo em R$ 25 bi, diz estudo
MARIANA CARNEIRO
DE SÃO PAULO
O esforço fiscal do governo está inflado em cerca de R$ 25 bilhões graças à ajuda de receitas atípicas. A estimativa é do economista Gabriel Leal de Barros, da FGV e será publicada na revista "Conjuntura Econômica" do próximo mês.Mais
segunda-feira, 29 de outubro de 2012
Por que estudar a Escola Austríaca
Por que estudar a Escola Austríaca
com Ubiratan Jorge Iorio
Início: 7/11/2012
Fim: 7/11/2012
Horário: 20:00 hs
Duração: 120 minutos
R$ 20,00
com Ubiratan Jorge Iorio
Início: 7/11/2012
Fim: 7/11/2012
Horário: 20:00 hs
Duração: 120 minutos
R$ 20,00
Análise Macroeconômica III - notas
Verifiquem suas notas not sistema.
Próximo encontro esta terça, 30/10
Faltam ainda trabalhos! Verifique!
Próximo encontro esta terça, 30/10
Faltam ainda trabalhos! Verifique!
Dinâmica Macroecômica - notas
Verifiquem suas notas no sistema.
Próximo encontro esta terça, 30/10/12
Próximo encontro esta terça, 30/10/12
Previsão de SELIC para 2013
SÃO PAULO, 29 Out (Reuters) - O mercado deu início ao ajuste de suas projeções sobre os próximo passos do Banco Central na condução da política monetária ao longo de 2013. Segundo a pesquisa Focus do Banco Central, a projeção agora é de que a Selic encerre o próximo ano a 7,75 por cento, contra 8,00 por cento esperados antes.
Erros nas ciências
"At least all sources of error that occur in the natural sciences also occur in the social sciences: or, in other words the statistical problems of the social sciences cannot be less serious than those of the natural sciences. Consequently, the treatment of errors of observation in the social sciences has to be at least as extensive and the standards have to be at least as severe as in the natural sciences. In fact, however, there is much less occupation with errors than in the other fields." ~ Oskar Morgenstern
domingo, 28 de outubro de 2012
15 documentários para entender a crise, dinheiro e a função do banco central
Originally posted at Economic Reason blog,
Top 15 Economic Documentaries
Posted on 09 September 2012.
1. Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis – Directed by Martin Borgs
Based on the book “Financial Fiasco” by Johan Norberg this documentary depicts When the world’s financial bubble blew, the solution was to lower interest rates and pump trillions of dollars into the sick banking system. The solution is the problem, that’s why we had a problem in the first place. Featured guests; Peter Schiff, Gerald Celente, Dennis Hannon. ~46 min.
2. 97% Owned - Directed by Peter Joseph
97% owned presents serious research and verifiable evidence on the troubling issues facing our economic and financial system. This documentary provides a UK-perspective, however, its inner workings of Central Banks and the Money creation process are virtually the same concept all around the world. ~2:10 hr.
3. Money as Debt 1, Directed by Paul Grignon
Todays money is a new form of slavery, and distinguishable from the old simply by the fact that it is impersonal, there is no human relation between master and slave. Debt- government, corporate and household has reached astronomical proportions. Where does all this money come from? How could there BE that much money to lend? The answer is…there isn’t. Today, MONEY IS DEBT. If there were NO DEBT there would be NO MONEY. ~ 47 min.
4. Money As Debt 2, Directed by Paul Grignon
Bailouts, stimulus packages, debt piled upon debt…Where will it all end? How did we get into a situation where there has never been more material wealth & productivity and yet everyone is in debt to bankers. ~1:16 hr.
5. Money As Debt 3, Directed by Paul Grignon
This third and final movie in the Money as Debt trilogy presents a comprehensive picture of how “money” could work in the future. It is a blueprint full of surprising specifics for creating a whole new system applied with technologies that exist right now. Money as Debt. ~1:02 hr.
6. The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of The World by Niall Ferguson
Based on the book, The Ascent of Money:This documentary provides a financial History of the World by a Harvard professor, Niall Ferguson‘s. It examines the long history of money, credit, and banking. ~4:30 hr.
7. Fiat Empire – Why the Federal Reserve Violates the U.S. Constitution, Directed by Matrixx Entertainment Corporation
A good documentary about the federal reserve in the United States. Most people believe that this bank is government owned but it is not. ~58 min.
8. Money, Banking, and The Federal Reserve System, Produced by Ludwig von Mises Institute
Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson understood The Monster. But to most Americans today, Federal Reserve is just a name on the dollar bill. They have no idea of what the central bank does to the economy, or to their own economic lives; of how and why it was founded and operates; or of the sound money and banking that could end the statism, inflation, and business cycles that the Fed generates. ~ 42 min.
9. The Crash Of 1929 – Produced by Ellen Hovde and Muffie Meyer
By 1929, Charles Mitchell, President of the National City Bank (which would become Citibank), had popularized the idea of selling stock and high yield bonds directly to smaller investors. Mitchell and a very small group of bankers, brokers, and speculators manipulated the stock market, grew wealthy and helped create the economic boom of that fabulous decade. ~1 hr.
10. Enron, The Smartest Guys In The Room, Directed by Alex Gibney
Believed by some accusers to be the most egregious corporate malefactors in American history — are about to go on trial for pillaging their company and devaluing its stock, leaving thousands of employees and investors holding the bag while they absconded with millions. ~ 1:49 hr.
11. MeltDown – The Secret History of the Global Financial Collapse – by Doc Zone
Doc Zone has traveled the world – from Wall Street to Dubai to China – to investigate The Secret History of the Global Financial Collapse. Meltdown is the story of the bankers who crashed the world, the leaders who struggled to save it and the ordinary families who got crushed. ~44 min.
12. The Take – by Avi Lewis
We heard rumors of a new kind of economy emerging in Argentina. With hundreds of factories closing, waves of workers were locking themselves inside and running the workplaces on their own, with no bosses. ~ 1:20 min.
13. The Money Masters, Directed Bill Still
The Money Masters is a 3 1/2 hour non-fiction, historical documentary that traces the origins of the political power structure that rules our nation and the world today. ~ 3:30 hr.
14. I.O.U.S.A – Directed by Patrick Creadon
I.O.U.S.A. is a 2008 American documentary directed by Patrick Creadon. The film focuses on the shape and impact of the United States national debt. The film features Robert Bixby, director of the Concord Coalition, and David Walker, the former U.S. Comptroller-General, as they travel around the United States on a tour to let communities know of the potential dangers of the national debt. The tour was carried out through the Concord Coalition, and was known as the “Fiscal Wake-Up Tour.” From Wikipedia. ~ 45min.
15. The Last Days Of Lehman Brothers
Drama inspired by the real events that took place on the weekend of 12 September 2008 – when the Lehman Brothers went to the wall. ~59 min.
sábado, 27 de outubro de 2012
Metodologia da escola austríaca de economia
“Austrian economics has generally been dismissed as extreme a priorism, cut off from the empirical data of the real world. The true situation is exactly the opposite. Austrian theory ruthlessly confines itself to an analysis of real life in the real world. It avoids abstract and unreal “models” and theoretical boxes. It shuns false assumptions and premises. It rests its deductive theoretical structures squarely on empirically grounded general axioms.”
Trecho de: Murray N. Rothbard. “Economic: Controversies.” Ludwig von Mises Institute. iBooks.
Mocambique - como a burocracia empobreça um país
Moçambique: ambiente de negócios?
Por Henriques Viola
Este texto é dedicado aos mais de 2 milhões de moçambicanos que se tornaram pobres entre 2003 e 2009 (1),(2)
Acabou de ser publicado em Washington o Doing Business 2013. Claro, como era de se esperar, Moçambique, mais uma vez caiu. Desta vez perdeu 7 posições, passando da 139ª para 146ª posição.
Este comportamento contrasta com o crescimento económico assinalável (mais de 7%/ano) que o país vem registando, mas continua em linha com a deterioração dos principais indicadores da pobreza, do emprego e do desenvolvimento humano e já agora também da competitividade económica, só para citar alguns...
Hoje em dia as empresas chegam a gastar mais tempo tratando de burocracias do que produzindo. Se esta última afirmação possa soar a exagero, basta olhar para o facto de que em Moçambique uma nova empresa precisar (oficialmente) de mais de 377 dias para obter todas as licenças de construção?(5) Sim! Mais de um ano para cumprir com a burocracia que lhe permita efectuar obras de construção de um empreendimento! Notem que só para obter o plano topografico chega a levar penosos 120 dias.
sexta-feira, 26 de outubro de 2012
Já pensou?
Rodrigo Constantino: "... Pensemos por um minuto
na seguinte questão: quais são os setores mais caóticos no Brasil?
Infraestrutura em geral (transportes públicos, aeroportos, portos, estradas e
eletricidade), educação pública, saúde pública, segurança pública etc. Será uma
incrível coincidência todos os setores capengas dependerem tanto da gestão
estatal? Ou será que tem alguma coisa a ver com as falhas estruturais nos
mecanismos de incentivos da gestão burocrática? ...
Mais
Mais
Dívida pública
Dívida de rico é outra coisa
19 de outubro de 2012 | 11h40
Rolf Kuntz
Ninguém se iluda. A enorme dívida pública do mundo rico vai durar muitos anos, talvez décadas, e um ajuste rápido e penoso para americanos, europeus e japoneses vai ser doloroso para todo mundo – chineses, brasileiros, mexicanos, coreanos e quem mais tenha alguma ligação com o mercado internacional. O reconhecimento desse fato – a solução será demorada – é provavelmente o melhor argumento a favor de programas de médio prazo com metas críveis e bem definidas. Alguns números podem ser mais convincentes que a maior parte dos discursos. Para levar a dívida americana de volta ao equivalente a uns 60% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) até 2030, o governo terá de obter um superávit primário pouco superior a 6% em cada um dos próximos 18 anos. Para o Japão, o resultado primário – o dinheiro reservado para o serviço da dívida – teria de ficar em torno de 14% do PIB.
Por que a crise continua
The Financial Crisis and Recovery: Why so Slow?
Gerald P. Dwyer and James R. Lothian
September/October 2011
- The U.S. economy has recovered slowly from the recession of 2007 to 2009.
- U.S. history provides no support for linking low employment and high unemployment in the current recovery with the financial crisis of 2007–2008.
- The recent recovery and the recovery after the Great Depression are similar, both of which differ from other recoveries.
- Current discussions about the recovery echo prominent interpretations of the Great Depression, focusing on low aggregate demand or government policies that increase uncertainty or decrease productivity.
- Mais
quinta-feira, 25 de outubro de 2012
Taxa de desemprego
Desemprego no Brasil sobe a 5,4% em setembro--IBGE
Por Rodrigo Viga Gaier | ReutersRIO DE JANEIRO, 25 Out (Reuters) - O desemprego brasileiro registrou leve alta em setembro, mas ainda continua nos menores níveis históricos, dando suporte ao consumo e, consequentemente, à atividade econômica.
De acordo com dados do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) divulgados nesta quinta-feira, a taxa de desemprego do país foi a 5,4 por cento no mês passado, ante 5,3 por cento em agosto.Mais
Brasil - um país emperrado
Um país emperrado
A empresa brasileira gasta em média 2.600 horas, cada ano, para cuidar dos impostos. A empresa colombiana, 203. Na União Europeia, o dispêndio é de 193 horas. Indicadores desse tipo mostram uma economia travada, onde os empresários têm muito menos tempo que seus concorrentes estrangeiros para cuidar de inovação, produção, qualidade e estratégia comercial. São forçados a enfrentar, no dia a dia, uma sequência absurda de obstáculos criados quase sempre pelo setor público – por excessos burocráticos, por inépcia administrativa ou simplesmente por omissão. Mais uma vez a pesquisa Doing Business, realizada anualmente pelo Banco Mundial, mostra o Brasil em péssima posição na escala internacional de facilidades – ou dificuldade – de fazer negócios...Mais
quarta-feira, 24 de outubro de 2012
Falta de inglês - uma exclusão social no nível mundial
Com 'qualidade muito baixa', Brasil é o 46º em ranking de proficiência em inglês
Brasileiros apresentam um dos piores desempenhos do mundo para se comunicar na língua inglesa.
Dinâmica Macroeconômica - Notas
Verifiquem as suas notas no sistema.
Tem um aluno(a) que entregou a sua prova sem nome (em lápis) - foi Gildete?
Por favor, entrar em contato comigo
e-mail
ou na próxima aula.
Tem um aluno(a) que entregou a sua prova sem nome (em lápis) - foi Gildete?
Por favor, entrar em contato comigo
ou na próxima aula.
Dívida na zona euro cresce
Dados da agência oficial de estatísticas da União Europeia (UE), a Eurostat, mostraram que a dívida dos 17 membros da zona do euro subiu para 90% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) local no segundo trimestre, de 88,2% no primeiro trimestre e 87,1% no segundo trimestre de 2011. Na UE, que conta com 27 países, a relação dívida/PIB saltou para 84,9%, de 83,5% no trimestre anterior.
Mais
Meta de inflação
Para BC, não dá para baixar meta de inflação
Tombini diz que pode haver pressão de preços provocada pelos países ricos
Notícia- Assine a Newsletter
- Ricardo Leopoldo e Francisco Carlos de Assis, da Agência Estado
SÃO PAULO - O presidente do Banco Central, Alexandre Tombini, disse que, embora seja desejável que a meta de inflação no Brasil se aproxime do patamar mais baixo de seus parceiros comerciais no longo prazo, a crise internacional não permite que esse passo seja dado. Segundo ele, é preciso verificar até que ponto as iniciativas dos países desenvolvidos para reanimar a economia não provocarão, em alguns anos, alta forte da inflação.
Como funciona os moderno sistema monetário?
Grande vídeo documentário que presenta
"... serious research and verifiable evidence on our economic and financial system. This is the first documentary to tackle this issue from a UK-perspective and explains the inner workings of Central Banks and the Money creation process.
When money drives almost all activity on the planet, it's essential that we understand it. Yet simple questions often get overlooked, questions like; where does money come from? Who creates it? Who decides how it gets used? And what does this mean for the millions of ordinary people who suffer when the monetary, and financial system, breaks down?
Produced by Queuepolitely and featuring Ben Dyson of Positive Money, Josh Ryan-Collins of The New Economics Foundation, Ann Pettifor, the "HBOS Whistleblower" Paul Moore, Simon Dixon of Bank to the Future and Nick Dearden from the Jubliee Debt Campaign.
Political philosopher John Gray, commented, "We're not moving to a world in which crises will never happen or will happen less and less. We are in a world in which they happen several times during a given human lifetime and I think that will continue to be the case"
If you have decided that crisis as a result of the monetary system is not an event you want to keep revisiting in your life-time then this documentary will equip you with the knowledge you need, what you do with it is up to you...
Assista
"... serious research and verifiable evidence on our economic and financial system. This is the first documentary to tackle this issue from a UK-perspective and explains the inner workings of Central Banks and the Money creation process.
When money drives almost all activity on the planet, it's essential that we understand it. Yet simple questions often get overlooked, questions like; where does money come from? Who creates it? Who decides how it gets used? And what does this mean for the millions of ordinary people who suffer when the monetary, and financial system, breaks down?
Produced by Queuepolitely and featuring Ben Dyson of Positive Money, Josh Ryan-Collins of The New Economics Foundation, Ann Pettifor, the "HBOS Whistleblower" Paul Moore, Simon Dixon of Bank to the Future and Nick Dearden from the Jubliee Debt Campaign.
Political philosopher John Gray, commented, "We're not moving to a world in which crises will never happen or will happen less and less. We are in a world in which they happen several times during a given human lifetime and I think that will continue to be the case"
If you have decided that crisis as a result of the monetary system is not an event you want to keep revisiting in your life-time then this documentary will equip you with the knowledge you need, what you do with it is up to you...
Assista
terça-feira, 23 de outubro de 2012
Impostos matam a economia
Sony diz que alta carga tributária impede a vinda de empresas de games para o Brasil
Pagando taxas de até 70% sobre o preço do produto, não são só as empresas que sofrem com tamanhos impostos.Glauco Rozner, diretor-geral da marca PlayStation no Brasil, afirmou que a Sony estuda há anos a implantação de uma unidade de fabricação do PS3 em nosso país. As tentativas da empresa sempre acabam frustradas pela quantidade de burocracia e, principalmente, pelo montante abusivo de cargas tributárias que são cobradas sobre os produtos.
No entanto, quando alguém compra um console que não é fabricado no Brasil, o consumidor é obrigado a pagar em torno de 60% a 70% do valor do produto, correspondendo somente à carga tributária aplicada a ele. Segundo o que Rozner disse ao site Olhar Digital, dos R$ 1,4 praticados oficialmente pelo PlayStation 3 aqui no Brasil, quase mil reais seriam apenas decorrentes de impostos e taxas diversas.
Leia mais em: http://www.tecmundo.com.br/playstation-3/31607-sony-diz-que-alta-carga-tributaria-impede-a-vinda-de-empresas-de-games-para-o-brasil.htm#ixzz2A3pTyQM5
Crescimento econômico
Intangible Capital and Economic Growth
Carol Corrado, Charles Hulten, and Daniel Sichel
Published macroeconomic data traditionally exclude most intangible investment from measured GDP. This situation is beginning to change, but our estimates suggest that as much as $800 billion is still excluded from U.S. published data (as of 2003), and that this leads to the exclusion of more than $3 trillion of business intangible capital stock. To assess the importance of this omission, we add intangible capital to the standard sources-of-growth framework used by the BLS, and find that the inclusion of our list of intangible assets makes a significant difference in the observed patterns of U.S. economic growth. The rate of change of output per worker increases more rapidly when intangibles are counted as capital, and capital deepening becomes the unambiguously dominant source of growth in labor productivity. The role of multifactor productivity is correspondingly diminished, and labor’s income share is found to have decreased significantly over the last 50 years.
Mais
Carol Corrado, Charles Hulten, and Daniel Sichel
Published macroeconomic data traditionally exclude most intangible investment from measured GDP. This situation is beginning to change, but our estimates suggest that as much as $800 billion is still excluded from U.S. published data (as of 2003), and that this leads to the exclusion of more than $3 trillion of business intangible capital stock. To assess the importance of this omission, we add intangible capital to the standard sources-of-growth framework used by the BLS, and find that the inclusion of our list of intangible assets makes a significant difference in the observed patterns of U.S. economic growth. The rate of change of output per worker increases more rapidly when intangibles are counted as capital, and capital deepening becomes the unambiguously dominant source of growth in labor productivity. The role of multifactor productivity is correspondingly diminished, and labor’s income share is found to have decreased significantly over the last 50 years.
Mais
Desenvolvimento econômico
Jane Jacobs on Development: the Nation is not the ONLY possible unit of analysis
From Don Boudreaux at Cafe Hayek, quoting Jane Jacobs’ book Cities and the Wealth of Nations:
This is the kind of helpful insight that will DEFINITELY have NO impact WHATSOEVER because it is so much more convenient both data-wise and politics-wise to focus on Nations
.
Nations are political and military entities… But it doesn’t necessarily follow from this that they are also the basic, salient entities of economic life or that they are particularly useful for probing the mysteries of economic structure, the reasons for rise and decline of wealth.So for example, two important factors in development are technology and culture. Neither spreads primarily at the unit of the nation.
This is the kind of helpful insight that will DEFINITELY have NO impact WHATSOEVER because it is so much more convenient both data-wise and politics-wise to focus on Nations
.
BMW vai para o Brasil
BMW deve produzir primeiros carros no Brasil no fim de 2014
Reuters
BRASÍLIA, 22 Out (Reuters) - A fabricante de carros de luxo BMW anunciou nesta segunda-feira investimentos de 200 milhões de euros (R$ 528,7 mi) na construção de sua primeira fábrica no país, que será instalada em Santa Catarina.
A fábrica deve começar a ser construída em abril do próximo ano, e os primeiros veículos deverão ser produzidos no final de 2014.
segunda-feira, 22 de outubro de 2012
Dinâmica Macroeconômica
As notas das provas 1 e 2 estão no sistema. Verifiquem.
Prova 3 vai ter lugar esta terça, 23 de Outubro as 19:00 horas.
Prova 3 vai ter lugar esta terça, 23 de Outubro as 19:00 horas.
domingo, 21 de outubro de 2012
sábado, 20 de outubro de 2012
8 documentários para entender a crise
Raízes da crise financeira
São Paulo - O sistema bancário mundial, em que os bancos criam e emprestam dinheiro sem limites reais, é quem seria o maior responsável por jogar as economias nacionais na crise. Mas é também o grande responsável em os tirar dela, alimentando o ciclo de expansão monetária seguida de novas, e cada vez mais graves, recessões.Exame.com separou 8 documentários que investigam os bastidores dos governos e das instituições financeiras em busca dos culpados. O mais recente deles, “Fraude – explicando a grande recessão” apresenta ao público uma visão completamente diferente da que culpa o capitalismo por essa crise sem precedentes e avisa que quem tenta salvar a economia mundial é também quem, primeiro, a fez entrar em colapso: os governos.
Assista
sexta-feira, 19 de outubro de 2012
Bolsa de Fulbright para os Estados Unidos
Buscamos professor(a) no nível associado, 6-10 anos de experiência, boa lista de publicações, fluente em inglês.
Contacto
Contacto
O mecanismo da transmissão monetária
Monetary policy implementation: Misconceptions and their consequences
by Piti Disyatat
Despite constituting the very heart of the monetary transmission mechanism, widespread
misconceptions still exist regarding how monetary policy is implemented. This paper
highlights the key misconceptions in this regard and shows how they have compromised the
understanding of important aspects of the monetary transmission mechanism. In particular,
the misplaced emphasis on open market operations as the means through which monetary
policy is implemented can give rise to inappropriate characterizations of monetary policy, as
well as to ill-defined discussions of liquidity effects, the bank lending channel, and sterilized
exchange rate intervention.
Mais
O multiplicador keynesiano pode ser negativo
KEYNESIAN GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIERS AND SPILLOVERS
IN THE EURO AREA
by Tobias Cwik and Volker Wieland
Abstract
The global financial crisis has lead to a renewed interest in discretionary fiscal stimulus. Advocates
of discretionary measures emphasize that government spending can stimulate additional
private spending — the Keynesian multiplier effect. Thus, we investigate whether the spending
package announced by Euro area governments for 2009 and 2010 is likely to boost GDP by more
than one for one. Because of modeling uncertainty, it is essential that such policy evaluations be
robust to alternative modeling assumptions and parameterizations. We use five different empirical
macroeconomic models with Keynesian features such as price and wage rigidities to evaluate
the impact of the fiscal stimulus. Four of them suggest that the planned increase in government
spending will reduce private consumption and investment significantly. Only a model that largely
ignores the forward-looking behavioral response of consumers and firms implies crowding-in of
private spending. We review a range of issues that may play a role in the recession of 2008-2009.
Implementation lags are found to reinforce crowding-out and may even cause an initial contraction.
Zero-bound effects may lead the central bank to abstain from interest rate hikes and increase
the GDP impact of government spending. Crowding-in, however, requires an immediate anticipation
of at least two years at the zero bound. Using a multi-country model, we find that spillovers
between euro area countries are negligible or even negative, because direct demand effects are
offset by the indirect effect of an euro appreciation. New-Keynesian DSGE models provide a
strong case for government savings packages. Announced with sufficient lead time, spending cuts
induce a significant short-run stimulus and crowding-in of private spending.
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Veja aqui também
quinta-feira, 18 de outubro de 2012
Macroeconomia interativa
Uma curta história da macroeconomia
Uma abordagem interativa
http://prezi.com/zr8i4rxdaq0u/a-brief-history-of-macroeconomics/
Uma abordagem interativa
http://prezi.com/zr8i4rxdaq0u/a-brief-history-of-macroeconomics/
Economia da pobreza
Poverty Nonsense
by Walter
E. Williams
Here's a recent statement frequently suggested by leftist academics, think tank researchers and policymakers: "People were not just struggling because of their personal deficiencies. There were structural factors at play. People weren't poor because they made bad decisions. They were poor because our society creates poverty." Who made that statement and where it was made is not important at all, but its corrosive effects on the minds of black people, particularly black youths, are devastating.
There's nothing intellectually challenging or unusual about poverty. For most of mankind's existence, his most optimistic scenario was to be able to eke out enough to subsist for another day. Poverty has been mankind's standard fare and remains so for most of mankind. What is unusual and challenging to explain is affluence – namely, how a tiny percentage of people, mostly in the West, for only a tiny part of mankind's existence, managed to escape the fate that befell their fellow men...
One cannot avoid the fact that average black income today is many multiples of what it was at emancipation, in 1900, in 1940 and in 1960, even though average black income is only 65 percent of white income. There is no comparison between black standard of living today and that in earlier periods. Again, the statement that "our society creates poverty" is just plain nonsense...
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quarta-feira, 17 de outubro de 2012
A dinâmica da dívida pública
There are two things that matter in government-debt dynamics: the difference between real interest rates and GDP growth (r-g), and the primary budget balance as a % of GDP (ie, before interest payments). In any given period the debt stock grows by the existing debt stock (d) multiplied by r-g, less the primary budget balance (p).
The simple r-g assumption is one of the most important in debt dynamics: an r-g of greater than zero (when interest rates are greater than GDP growth) means that the debt stock increases over time. An r-g of less than zero causes it to fall.
Our interactive model uses the nominal interest rate (i) approximately equivalent to the ten-year bond yield and allows you to input your own inflation rate, π. Inflation helps reduce the total debt stock over time, by reducing the real value of debt. In our model and using approximations, r-g becomes i - π - g. The greater the inflation rate, the lower r-g becomes.
The second consideration is the primary budget balance. A primary budget surplus causes the debt stock to fall, by allowing the government to pay off some of the existing debt. A primary deficit needs to be financed by further borrowing. As European peripheral countries have found out to their cost, interest rates increase when governments run large budget deficits, and as they do it becomes increasingly difficult to reduce r-g to a sustainable level.
In reality, these variables are all related. When inflation rises, for instance, bondholders will expect a higher nominal interest rate on new debt. If a country runs a larger primary surplus, the interest rate it is forced to pay may fall. Adjustments in countries' deficits will also affect their growth rates. To keep matters simple, we have ignored these interactions. Our calculator shows the evolution of a government's debt stock based directly on the values for inflation, growth, interest rates and the primary deficit that you determine.
Veja gráfico interativo:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/10/daily-chart-7
The simple r-g assumption is one of the most important in debt dynamics: an r-g of greater than zero (when interest rates are greater than GDP growth) means that the debt stock increases over time. An r-g of less than zero causes it to fall.
Our interactive model uses the nominal interest rate (i) approximately equivalent to the ten-year bond yield and allows you to input your own inflation rate, π. Inflation helps reduce the total debt stock over time, by reducing the real value of debt. In our model and using approximations, r-g becomes i - π - g. The greater the inflation rate, the lower r-g becomes.
The second consideration is the primary budget balance. A primary budget surplus causes the debt stock to fall, by allowing the government to pay off some of the existing debt. A primary deficit needs to be financed by further borrowing. As European peripheral countries have found out to their cost, interest rates increase when governments run large budget deficits, and as they do it becomes increasingly difficult to reduce r-g to a sustainable level.
In reality, these variables are all related. When inflation rises, for instance, bondholders will expect a higher nominal interest rate on new debt. If a country runs a larger primary surplus, the interest rate it is forced to pay may fall. Adjustments in countries' deficits will also affect their growth rates. To keep matters simple, we have ignored these interactions. Our calculator shows the evolution of a government's debt stock based directly on the values for inflation, growth, interest rates and the primary deficit that you determine.
Veja gráfico interativo:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/10/daily-chart-7
O estado de bem-estar e inovação
Cant We All Be More Like Scandinavians? Asymmetric
Growth and Institutions in an Interdependent World
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
James A. Robinson
Harvard
Thierry Verdier
Paris School of Economics
September 2012.
Abstract
Because of their more limited inequality and more comprehensive social welfare systems,
many perceive average welfare to be higher in Scandinavian societies than in the United States.
Why then does the United States not adopt Scandinavian-style institutions? More generally,
in an interdependent world, would we expect all countries to adopt the same institutions? To
provide theoretical answers to this question, we develop a simple model of economic growth
in a world in which all countries bene t and potentially contribute to advances in the world
technology frontier. A greater gap of incomes between successful and unsuccessful entrepreneurs
(thus greater inequality) increases entrepreneurial e¤ort and hence a countrys contribution to
the world technology frontier. We show that, under plausible assumptions, the world equilibrium
is asymmetric: some countries will opt for a type of cutthroatcapitalism that generates greater
inequality and more innovation and will become the technology leaders, while others will free-
ride on the cutthroat incentives of the leaders and choose a more cuddly form of capitalism.
Paradoxically, those with cuddly reward structures, though poorer, may have higher welfare than
cutthroat capitalists; but in the world equilibrium, it is not a best response for the cutthroat
capitalists to switch to a more cuddly form of capitalism. We also show that domestic constraints
from social democratic parties or unions may be bene cial for a country because they prevent
cutthroat capitalism domestically, instead inducing other countries to play this role.
Mais
terça-feira, 16 de outubro de 2012
Expansão de crédito
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Política e Economia
A estreita relação entre política e economia no desenvolvimento dos países. Jorge Pontual entrevista o economista Daron Acemoglu. O programa é exibido toda segunda-feira, às 23h30, na Globo News.
Veja:
http://g1.globo.com/globo-news/milenio/platb/2012/08/24/a-importancia-da-politica-para-a-economia
Veja:
http://g1.globo.com/globo-news/milenio/platb/2012/08/24/a-importancia-da-politica-para-a-economia
segunda-feira, 15 de outubro de 2012
Boletim de Conjuntura
Apresentação da 3. edição do
BOLETIM DE CONJUNTURA
na terça, 16 de Outubro de 2012 as 19 horas
no Departamento de Economia da UFS
Não perca!
BOLETIM DE CONJUNTURA
na terça, 16 de Outubro de 2012 as 19 horas
no Departamento de Economia da UFS
Não perca!
Inflação - perspectivas para o Brasil
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Crescimento econômico - perspectivas para o Brasil
FOCUS-Mercado reduz Selic e vê menos crescimento em 2012
ReutersSÃO PAULO, 15 Out (Reuters) - O mercado prevê que Selic encerrará este ano a 7,25 por cento ao ano, abaixo da perspectiva da semana anterior de 7,50 por cento, depois que o Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) reduziu a taxa básica de juros na semana passada, mostrou a pesquisa Focus, do Banco Central, divulgada nesta segunda-feira.
O Copom reduziu a Selic para 7,25 por cento na semana passada.Os analistas consultados na pesquisa ainda elevaram ligeiramente a projeção para a inflação neste ano a 5,43 por cento, ante 5,42 por cento semana anterior, e calcularam o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em 1,54 por cento, contra 1,57 por cento anteriormente.
Fonte
domingo, 14 de outubro de 2012
Ciênica econômica sem resposta
Economics in Denial
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PARIS – In an exasperated outburst, just before he left the presidency of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet complained that, “as a policymaker during the crisis, I found the available [economic and financial] models of limited help. In fact, I would go further: in the face of the crisis, we felt abandoned by conventional tools.”
Trichet went on to appeal for inspiration from other disciplines – physics, engineering, psychology, and biology – to help explain the phenomena he had experienced. It was a remarkable cry for help, and a serious indictment of the economics profession, not to mention all those extravagantly rewarded finance professors in business schools from Harvard to Hyderabad.sábado, 13 de outubro de 2012
Os chineses sabem aprender
Zhang Weiying: China's Anti-Keynesian Insurgent
Zhang Weiying's warnings that stimulus spending would lead to malinvestment were once ignored. Now official ministries invite the follower of Hayek to speak.
Three years ago, Keynesianism was official policy. The 2008 financial crisis had Beijing gloating over the failure of the free-market "Washington Consensus" and touting the "China Model" of government intervention. Keynesianism fit the statist zeitgeist and Beijing then suffered an export slump, so the government allocated $3.5 trillion—or about 50% of gross domestic product—in bank loans and direct spending.Mr. Zhang's academic colleagues were all praise for the "China Model," but in 2009 he was giving speeches entitled "Bury Keynesianism." Then a top administrator at Peking University, where he now teaches economics, he argued that since the financial crisis was caused by easy money, it couldn't be solved by the same. "The current economy is like a drug addict, and the prescription from the doctor is morphine, so the final result will be much worse," he said.
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Veja também: A. Mueller, The stimulus scam e Triumph and Tragedy of Easy Money
sexta-feira, 12 de outubro de 2012
Falta de um política macroeconômica coerente
ROGÉRIO FURQUIM WERNECK :
"... Quanto ao regime de metas para inflação, o que hoje se constata é que, com a recorrente alegação de que está apenas alongando o prazo de convergência da inflação à meta, o Banco Central vai se permitir atravessar todo o atual mandato presidencial com inflação substancialmente acima da meta.
A falta de uma política macroeconômica coerente, em meio a um ambiente externo que promete continuar adverso, vem contribuindo para prolongar a retração do investimento. A retomada do nível de atividade que, com algum esforço, se pode entrever ainda não permite detectar recuperação convincente do investimento agregado.
Leia mais sobre esse assunto em http://oglobo.globo.com/opiniao/investimentos-contratos-intimidacao-6375184#ixzz296vGC0BC
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Entenda o euro e a função da UE
Euro: que moeda é essa?
Essas avaliações são justificadas? Está o euro realmente à beira de um colapso? Qual é a moeda comum europeia, afinal? Que moeda é essa?
O euro como um instrumento de paz, liberdade e prosperidade
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