And if Ms Rousseff fails to bring about change? Most of Brazil’s borrowing is in local currency, which makes default unlikely. Instead, the country may end up inflating away its debts. Brazil’s achievement has been to lift tens of millions of people out of rag-and-flip-flop poverty. Recession will halt that, or even begin to reverse it. The hope is that Brazil, which has achieved hard-won economic and democratic stability, does not lapse once again into chronic mismanagement and turmoil. Mais
Walmart fecha 25 lojas no Brasil e diz que melhora no país é prioridade
Empresa citou aumento das reivindicações trabalhistas no país. Lucro líquido caiu 21% no 4º trimestre fiscal e vendas cresceram 1,5%.
Da Reuters
O Walmart informou nesta quinta-feira que fechou 25 lojas no Brasil no quarto trimestre fiscal encerrado em janeiro, período em que seu lucro líquido consolidado caiu 21% afetado por encargos trabalhistas e queda dos ganhos de operações internacionais.
O impacto já havia sido estimado pela maior varejista do mundo no fim de janeiro, quando anunciou a redução das suas estimativas de desempenho para o período. Mais
John Maynard Keynes’s main claim to fame is his advocacy of deficit spending as a tool of economic recovery. In a depressed economy, the argument runs, the government should spend money it doesn’t have.
In our era of Keynesian economics on steroids, we should ask: How close is current Keynesian practice to original Keynesian theory? John Maynard Keynes’s main claim to fame is his advocacy of deficit spending as a tool of economic recovery. In a depressed economy, the argument runs, the government should spend money it doesn’t have. That will stimulate demand, which in term will stimulate supply. Once the economy is back on track, tax revenues will increase, which the government can use to offset its deficits. Thus, in the medium term its books will happily balance.
Before Keynes some economists had urged the occasional use of deficit spending to counter downturns. Keynes’s originality was placing that particular political policy tool within the context of a more general economic theory.
But since Keynes’s 1936 General Theory, we’ve experienced decades of deficits and accelerating government debt. So what went wrong?
I’ve been rereading James Buchanan and Richard Wagner’s seminal Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes. Buchanan won the Nobel Prize in 1986 for pioneering Public Choice theory or “politics without romance,” as he called it. Democracy in Deficit is essential reading for all political thinkers, and two of its points about assessing Keynes’s responsibility strike me as important.
Keynes was a political elitist, not a democrat. Buchanan and Wagner quote biographer R. F. Harrod on Keynes’s ongoing assumption “that the government of Britain was and could continue to be in the hands of an intellectual aristocracy using the methods of persuasion.”
First, Keynes was a political elitist, not a democrat. Buchanan and Wagner quote biographer R. F. Harrod on Keynes’s ongoing assumption “that the government of Britain was and could continue to be in the hands of an intellectual aristocracy using the methods of persuasion.”
So perhaps Keynes thought his prescriptions should not be applied in a democracy. Only an aristocracy of intelligent and disciplined politicians could be trusted with Keynesian policies.
After all, what kind of politician typically gets democratically elected? Don’t they tend to be more cunning than intelligent, more pandering and less disciplined? So Keynesianism in a democratic context will lead to misdirected and out-of-control spending — and here we are today. But we can’t blame aristocratic Keynes for democratic Keynesianism, so we must shift the blame to his followers who abused his system and misapplied it.
Second, Keynes’s General Theory was published in 1936 and was in part responsive to the Great Depression. Emergency government measures were needed, the argument ran. But those emergency measures would and should be suspended once the emergency had passed. So a decade later — after the Depression and World War II — Keynes’s theory says to stop the deficit spending. But Keynes died in 1946, and if his disciples continued to apply his methods that is not Keynes’s fault.
So is Lord Keynes off the hook? Mais
With recent JPY strength not helping, last week ended on a down-note for Japan as its jobless rate ticked up from 3.1% to 3.3% (the biggest rise since January) and Household spending collapsed. However, as the last week of the year begins, things have not improved as a double whammy of awfulness just hit the shores of Abe's nation with retail sales (worst since the tsunami) and industrial production ugly and missing across the board. We are sure, of course, that just one more dose of faith-based QE will fix this.
The most important principle in economics is opportunity cost. Here’s proof: you can define opportunity cost without resorting to comparative advantage. But you can’t possibly define comparative advantage without invoking opportunity cost. http://fee.org/freeman/comparative-advantage-an-idea-whose-time-has-passed/
Siga @Estadao no TwitterProblema deve se agravar após 2ª perda de grau de investimento, que também afeta os investimentos produtivos e o crescimento
Os efeitos da perda do selo de bom pagador pelo Brasil por duas agências de classificação de risco devem se prolongar ao longo dos anos. Agora rebaixado para a categoria de grau especulativo, o País vê como mais difícil uma recuperação da credibilidade no mercado internacional. Mais
José Luis Oreiro, da UFRJ e da Associação Keynesiana Brasileira, que se considera um “novo desenvolvimentista”, ataca duramente diagnóstico e recomendações do grupo de economistas da Fundação Perseu Abramo, ligada ao PT.
Uma das críticas mais demolidoras do diagnóstico heterodoxo da atual crise econômica produzido pela Fundação Perseu Abramo, ligada ao PT, vem de um economista heterodoxo, José Oreiro, da UFRJ e Associação Keynesiana Brasileira. Isto pode parecer estranho, mas releva que o campo heterodoxo no Brasil se rachou definitivamente. Hoje as propostas de Oreiro e de seus companheiros do “novo desenvolvimentismo” parecem estar mais distantes do pensamento por trás do documento da Fundação Perseu Abramo do que da visão ortodoxa e do mercado financeiro sobre a economia.
Algumas expressões empregadas pelo economista da UFRJ para se referir ao diagnóstico do grupo que chama de “social desenvolvimentistas” revela o abismo que separa as duas correntes heterodoxas: “suicídio econômico”, “miopia inacreditável”, “jogar gasolina da fogueira”, “irresponsabilidade à toda prova”. Mais
Até os desenvolvimentistas rejeitam a “nova matriz econômica” de Barbosa
Até os desenvolvimentistas rejeitam a “nova matriz econômica” de Barbosa
Divididos em dois grupos, economistas simpáticos à intervenção estatal jogam a paternidade da política que descontrolou as finanças públicas no colo um do outro
O problema do Brasil é que está no hemisfério sul. A Austrália também está. O problema do Brasil é ser um país-continente. A Austrália também é. O problema do Brasil é a população viver na costa e ter metade do território formado pela floresta. A Austrália também tem a população concentrada na costa e, pior, metade do território é formado por deserto. O problema do Brasil é a colonização, vieram para cá desterrados. A Austrália também foi povoada por desterrados. O problema ...do Brasil é a distância dos principais centros produtores e consumidores. A Austrália também é longe de tudo. O problema do Brasil é o extrativismo ser a base da economia. A Austrália também tem no extrativismo sua base econômica. O problema do Brasil é a falta de liberdade. A Austrália também é um país.... Ops! A Austrália é o país mais livre do mundo."
Erro do BNDES levou a correção contábil bilionáriaA reunião do Conselho de Administração do BNDES de 27 de março de 2015 mal havia começado quando o então ministro da Fazenda, Joaquim Levy, pediu a palavra para questionar um ponto da contabilidade da instituição…www1.folha.uol.com.br Mais
"Neste momento, eles têm uma economia que não está crescendo 7 por cento; está mais para 1 ou 2 por cento"
Todo mundo sabia disso, mas demorou um pouco para que se tornasse oficial.
No caso dos valores exagerados do PIB chinês, agora temos a confirmação da agência de notícias Xinhua, porta-voz oficial do governo chinês, de que os dados vêm sendo inventados há um longo período de tempo, pelo menos regionalmente.
Esta informação veio à tona assim que o National Audit Office (Escritório Nacional de Auditoria) admitiu que o PIB é basicamente inventado. Na verdade, de acordo com um relatório feito pelo jornal China Daily, o National Audit Office também havia feito um relatório, mas não chegou a divulgar o documento.
“Um conselho em Liaoning reportou receitas fiscais anuais 127 por cento mais elevadas do que o número real”, relatou o jornal China Daily.
Anotações a respeito do desenvolvimentismo e da chegada de Nelson Barbosa à Fazenda
A chegada de Nelson Barbosa ao Ministério da Fazenda foi acompanhada de uma série de comentários receosos com uma expansão do gasto no que seria a volta da Nova Matriz Econômica. A lógica que justifica o receio é que sendo Nelson Barbosa um economista keynesiano ele acredita que qualquer expansão do gasto público em qualquer tempo e lugar leva a um crescimento do PIB, ocorre que não é assim que pensam todos os keynesianos e isso não deixa de ser verdade se consideramos apenas os keynesianos chamados de heteredoxos. Caso não acredite em mim leia o que disse José Oreiro (link aqui), presidente da Associação Keynesiana Brasileira:
“Não necessariamente. No modelo keynesiano simplificado dos livro-textos introdutórios de macroeconomia é verdade que uma contração fiscal leva a uma queda do nível de atividade econômica e emprego. Mas a realidade é mais complexa do que isso...”
Keith Naughton KeithNaughton
The self-driving car, that cutting-edge creation that’s supposed to lead to a world without accidents, is achieving the exact opposite right now: The vehicles have racked up a crash rate double that of those with human drivers.
The glitch?
They obey the law all the time, as in, without exception. This may sound like the right way to program a robot to drive a car, but good luck trying to merge onto a chaotic, jam-packed highway with traffic flying along well above the speed limit. It tends not to work out well. As the accidents have piled up -- all minor scrape-ups for now -- the arguments among programmers at places like Google Inc. and Carnegie Mellon University are heating up: Should they teach the cars how to commit infractions from time to time to stay out of trouble? Mais
It’s easy to blame plummeting oil prices for the economic crisis in Brazil. It’s also wrong. Brazil’s wounds are self-inflicted by an antigrowth policy mix dating back to 2008. The results were predictable.
The Brazilian economy contracted a whopping 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that for 2015 Brazil’s gross domestic product will shrink by 3% and another 1% in 2016. That follows flatline growth in 2014.
In September, Standard & Poor’s stripped the country of its investment-grade rating. On Wednesday Moody’s said that it is contemplating a similar downgrade of Brazil’s debt. The annual inflation rate at the end of November was 10.5% and CIBC Capital Markets forecasts a fiscal deficit this year of 10.5%.
The international news media blame the Brazilian bust on oil prices brought low by a strong dollar and a slump in global demand. But Brazil is one of the most closed economies in the G-20, and its goods exports as a percentage of GDP in 2014 were only 10.5%. Mexico’s were 18.24%, according to CIBC Capital Markets. All Latin American commodity exporters are feeling the oil and commodity downturn but none has been laid low quite like Brazil. Chile and Peru, giant commodity exporters, are still growing. Moreover, lower commodity prices also offset the high cost of doing business in Brazil. In 2014, 40% of Brazilian imports were linked to commodities, including fertilizer, gasoline, aluminum for steelmaking, and sweet crude.
A decade ago there was reason to hope that greater Brazilian prosperity was just around the corner. Such optimism hinged on the economic, fiscal and monetary reforms introduced by President Fernando Henrique Cardoso from 1995-2002.
President Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) took office in 2003. His personal history as a militant labor-union leader and disciple of Fidel Castro panicked markets. To stop the stampede to the exits he pledged not to mess with central bank autonomy or the stability of the Brazilian real, and not to radically alter economic policy.
Geanluca Lorenzon, the chief operating officer of the Mises Brazil Institute in São Paulo, told me in a telephone interview last week that Mr. da Silva even deepened the government’s commitment to fiscal restraint for a time. But in 2008, in his second term, the global financial crisis hit Brazil. And he buckled.
Mr. Lorenzon says Mr. da Silva turned to stimulus spending, while the central bank, supposedly autonomous, began to allow higher inflation as a way of boosting growth.
For a political culture predisposed to abuse government power, breaking the rules established during the Cardoso government—which were designed to constrain that power—triggered a return to bad behavior.
Since the 1960s Brazil has pursued industrialization through high levels of protectionism and subsidies for domestic producers. The failure of that strategy is manifest. But letting uncompetitive businesses fail had political costs that Mr. da Silva and his successor, President Dilma Rousseff, weren’t willing to pay.
Instead they increased protectionism and subsidies, and rapidly expanded credit through the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) and other state-owned banks. They also financed large government deficits with mostly domestic borrowing. The deficits were exacerbated by the tripling of the civil service during the PT governments and unjustified increases in the minimum wage and welfare and retirement benefits.
The Mises Institute Brazil noted in a Nov. 2010 website post that from May 2009 to September 2010, total credit expanded 25%. Not coincidentally, in 2010 Brazil grew 7.5% but not, as is well understood now, because of productivity gains. Looking back on the misallocation of capital, the institute wrote this February that “what really happened is that the Brazilian economy was kept lively by new and increasing doses of state credit.”
The BNDES credit was cheap for the politically connected companies that the government wanted to save, but it has cost the nation. Subsidized credit also went to households. Mr. Lorenzon told me that currently the average Brazilian family is carrying an annual debt-service burden equal to 46% of its income. Currently the government’s largest real-estate lending program has a default rate of almost 22%.
To salvage its loans to domestic companies Brazil has raised import duties and promoted consumption of made-in-Brazil products. This has damaged innovation and development. Large offshore oil reserves aren’t likely to be developed as long as investors are hamstrung by Brazilian content rules requiring their equipment to be made domestically.
Brazil is reaping the fruits of a national industrial policy that cannot produce growth and prosperity. The credit bubble has burst. Consumers, businesses and government won’t get back to even without a painful adjustment. Don’t pin it on oil prices.
Moody's dá game over para grau de investimento O ministro da Fazenda, Joaquim Levy, tentou, mas não deu. O Brasil vai perder a condição de grau de investimento em até três meses, conforme deixou claro a agência de classificação de risco Moody's, ao listar o que a demoveria da intenção de reduzir nota ao colocá-la ontem em revisão para rebaixamento. http://www.valor.com.br/valor-investe/casa-das-caldeiras/4350950/moodys-da-game-over-para-grau-de-investimento
Após 19 anos de construção, cientistas testam reator Wendelstein 7-X pela primeira vez. Tecnologia pode ajudar a resolver a crescente demanda por energia limpa no mundo. Segundo o IPP, um grama de hidrogênio poderia gerar 90 mil quilowatts-hora de energia – a mesma quantidade produzida pela combustão de 11 toneladas de carvão. Ou seja, a tecnologia superaria todas as antigas fontes energéticas, como o petróleo e o próprio carvão."
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