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sexta-feira, 30 de junho de 2017
O futuro do comércio internacional
Estados Unidos exportam cada vez mais petróleo
Suddenly the U.S. Is Exporting More Crude Than a Bunch of OPEC Members
Bloomberg Wed, Jun 28
terça-feira, 27 de junho de 2017
Salário mínimo
FEE
Seattle city government is out with a new NBER paper evaluating Seattle’s minimum wage increase to $13 an hour and it finds significant disemployment effects that on net reduce the incomes of minimum wage workers.
How Seattle provides a practical example of minimum wages leading to losses in income and employment
FEE.ORG
China
Four Reasons Why China's Industries Will Dominate The World By 2030
When it comes to industrial dominance, fortunes can change drastically. However, by observing current trends, the ability of China’s industries to soar to the top in 2030 is unmistakable. For almost three decades, China’s economy–powered by its industries–has continued to grow at an astronomical rate. Yet, in the midst of this spectacular growth, a recent slowdown has caused pundits to speculate about the chances its industries will have to continue competing on the world stage. While no one can deny that its economy has stumbled a bit in recent years, and consumption hasn’t enjoyed predictable growth during this period, the truth is that this setback will have little effect on the ability of ...
segunda-feira, 26 de junho de 2017
domingo, 25 de junho de 2017
Brasil na armadilha da renda média
O período de maior aumento sustentado da renda per capita no Brasil ocorreu sob as políticas desenvolvimentistas do período militar; depois chegou a estagnação dos anos 1980 e início dos 90 (começando pelo segundo choque do petróleo, em dezembro de 1979 e crise da dívida externa, em 1982) e só voltou a crescer, impulsionados pela demanda chinesa e crescimento da economia mundial nos anos 2000, mas isso não se revelou sustentável.
A armadilha da renda média no Brasil
paulogala.com.br
Veja também:
Antony Mueller http://www.mises.org.br/Article.aspx?id=1765
sábado, 24 de junho de 2017
A doença holandesa
On Dutch Disease
Dealing with Dutch disease | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading econom
The recent boom in primary commodity prices has once more stimulated interest in the issue of “Dutch Disease” – the changes in a country’s structure of…
voxeu.org
Neoliberalismo
"Imagine you thought that helping the worst-off was what mattered most, but that free markets were the best way of doing it.
You might be a neoliberal: someone who thinks that lightly-regulated markets, free trade and free movement are the best way to create wealth and innovation domestically and globally, but that the state does have a role to play in redistributing some of the proceeds to the least well-off.
...Ver mais
segunda-feira, 19 de junho de 2017
domingo, 18 de junho de 2017
O vício brasileiro
Economista discute política monetária em seu novo livro: ‘Juros, moeda e ortodoxia’
oglobo.globo.com
- Entrevista do André Lara Rezende a propósito de seu novo livro. A conexão entre juros excessivamente altos e a dívida pública é o tema da vez. Se não estivéssemos nessa baderna política era disso que deveráiamos estar falando, era essa a agenda positiva "fora da caixa".
Leia mais: https://oglobo.globo.com/…/verdadeiro-vicio-brasileiro-a-de…
stest
sábado, 17 de junho de 2017
Desigualdade
What history says about inequality and technology
The recent rise in earnings for skilled workers is a rare phenomenon
ONE factor behind the rise of income inequality in America over the past four decades is that the labour market has increasingly favoured the well-educated. Real wages for college graduates have risen by over a third since 1963, whereas wages for those without high-school diplomas have dropped. As more of the economy becomes automated, doomsayers worry that the gap between the haves and the have-nots will only grow. History shows, however, that this need not be so.
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quarta-feira, 14 de junho de 2017
Taxa de poupança da China e do Brasil
Poupança em porcentos do PIB
(atual 47,9 %)
Taxa de poupança do Brasil
Poupança em porcentos do PIB
(atual 16,4 %)
Taxa de poupança ótima para o Brasil: Resumo
Esse trabalho acadêmico utilizou a teoria da regra de ouro do modelo de Solow na economia brasileira.... A taxa de poupança ótima foi encontrada em s=42,94 (%PIB). Atualmente a taxa de poupança brasileira está bem abaixo da taxa ótima, s=13,0 (%PIB), o que em grande parte explica o baixo crescimento brasileiro. O Brasil deve elevar sua taxa de poupança no sentido de obter um crescimento econômico sadio e sustentável.
Pobreza na América
What You Should Know about Poverty in America
by Antony Davies and James R. Harrigan
Poverty is a big deal – it affects about 41 million people in the United States every year – yet the federal government spends a huge amount of money to end poverty. How can this be? And how do we even measure poverty in the first place? This week on Words and Numbers, Antony Davies and James R. Harrigan answer these questions and delve into what can be done to help the poor.
TURNS OUT MEASURING POVERTY IS MORE COMPLICATED THAN IT SEEMS, BUT FIXING IT COULD BE EASY
Recusos para Macro III - Crescimento econômico
Data Shows Crescimento Econômico:
- Os fatos do crescimento econômico
- Poupança e a acumulação do capital
- Progresso tecnológico e crescimento
- Progresso tecnológico e desemprego
Apostila
Fatos do crescimento econômico
- Os fatos do crescimento econômico
- Poupança e a acumulação do capital
- Progresso tecnológico e crescimento
- Progresso tecnológico e desemprego
Apostila
Fatos do crescimento econômico
sexta-feira, 9 de junho de 2017
Distribuição de riqueza
A distribuição de riqueza sob um capitalismo livre é
sempre temporária, com base no serviço aos clientes e dependente do tamanho do
grau em que o capital é colocado ao serviço dos consumidores.
Numa economia dinâmica orientada para o constante
aperfeiçoamento de produtos e serviços – no capitalismo livre – a distribuição
da riqueza é de caráter completamente diferente do que em outros sistemas econômicos.
Em um capitalismo livre a riqueza é, em primeiro lugar, sempre apenas
temporária, exatamente porque se baseia na melhoria de bens e serviços e, como
tal, torna-se obsoleta através de novas melhorias dos competidores. Em segundo
lugar, grandes riquezas no capitalismo livre existem em bens de capital que
devem ser colocados ao serviço dos consumidores para gerar renda. Quem usa o
capital, não é o dono jurídico e administrativa, mas sim o cliente. Em terceiro
lugar, a quantidade de riqueza sob o capitalismo livre depende do grau de
quanto o capital é dedicado ao serviço do consumidor. A riqueza sob o
capitalismo é na mão dos consumidores, eles são os donos de fato, donos no
sentido econômico independentemente do que quem é o dono jurídico.
Mostra uma imensa ignorância pôr a distribuição da
riqueza sob o capitalismo livre na mesmo categoria como a distribuição da
riqueza no passado quando não foi uma riqueza de capital no serviço do consumidor,
mas foi uma riqueza na disposição arbitrária do dono no uso do seu consumo
pessoal.
quinta-feira, 8 de junho de 2017
quarta-feira, 7 de junho de 2017
terça-feira, 6 de junho de 2017
Economia venezolana
Venezuela’s Road to Disaster Is Littered With Chinese Cash
Foreign Policy Magazine
The Venezuelan and Chinese economies seem like they could hardly have less in common. The Venezuelan government of Nicolás Maduro has looted the state-run oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to pay for the “Bolivarian revolution,” the socialist movement begun under the late leader Hugo Chávez. With oil prices down, the country is unable even to repair rigs or pay workers to generate income, and the government now faces the prospect of a mass uprising. Meanwhile, half a globe away, China’s gleaming malls stand in stark contrast to Venezuela’s empty shelves. But Venezuela’s ruinous state has more to do with China than one might think — specifically, with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plan ...
Economia brasileira
World Bank: Brazil Is The 'Worst Economy' In Latin America
Forbes
If you discount for the failed state of Venezuela, the worst of the large countries south of the Rio Grande is…Brasil! In terms of economic growth rates, no country in Latin America is growing slower than these guys in 2017, 2018 and 2019, according to a World Bank assessment released June 4. Only tiny, or total basket case economies do worse over the next three years. In real GDP terms, Mexico (EWW) and the tiny Central American states are projected to grow 2.1% in 2017, then 2.4% in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019. Mexico is the growth driver. Even with Trump’s border wall and anti-NAFTA rhetoric, Mexico is expected to grow at 1.8%, 2.2% and 2.5%. Brazil’s rival, Argentina, will grow at 2.7%, then 3.2% ...
domingo, 4 de junho de 2017
sexta-feira, 2 de junho de 2017
Uma lista de livros para estudar teoria econômica austríaca
The Top Dozen Books on Austrian Economics
The list begins with books that are easier to read. The list gets progressively more rigorous.
1. What Has Government Done to Our Money? (1964), by Murray Rothbard. This is an easy to read book. It is short: a long article. It introduces a crucial topic, one which is central to Austrian school economics: money. Rothbard's presentation sets forth his view of how central banking has undermined reliable, predictable money.
2. The Case for a 100% Gold Dollar (1962), by Rothbard. This extends his discussion in the first book. It is another long article.
3. Mises on Money (2012), by Gary North. This presents the main ideas of the Austrian theory of the business cycle, as first presented by Mises.
4. America's Great Depression (1963), by Rothbard. This book presents the case against the Federal Reserve in the 1920's and against Herbert Hoover's interventions, 1930-33.
5. Bureaucracy (1944), by Ludwig von Mises. This short book shows the differences between profit management (free market) and bureaucracy (state). It is about 130 pages. It is easy to read. It shows why business techniques of efficiency are useless for reforming government. The funding is different.
6. The Road to Serfdom (1944), by F. A. Hayek. This is the most widely known book from an Austrian standpoint. It was a best-seller. It presents the case against government intervention in the name of liberty, not efficiency. Chapter 10 is great: "Why the Worst Get on Top."
7. Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth (1920), by Mises. This short book converted a generation of young socialists to the free market. Hayek was one of them. Mises showed how socialism is inherently irrational, for it has no rational pricing system.
8. Socialism (1922), by Mises. This extended his discussion in the previous book. It is the classic book ever written against all forms of socialism.
9. Human Action (1949), by Mises. This is his magnum opus. This was the first book to defend free market economic theory consistently in every area of the economy that is governed by the price system. It is comprehensive as no previous economics book had been.
10. Man, Economy, and State (1962), by Rothbard. This presents Human Action with the paraphernalia of college-level economics. It has lots of graphs. It has lots of footnotes. It is well organized. It is clear, as Rothbard's books always are.
11. Economic Logic (3rd ed.), by Mark Skousen. This is an Economics 1 college textbook. It covers the basics. If you ever have to take a beginning course in economics, read this book in the month before you enroll.
12. Individualism and Economic Order (1948), by Hayek. This is a collection of his articles. The key article is Chapter 4 on decentralized economic knowledge.
Not for the fainthearted:
13. Market Theory and the Price System (1963), by Israel Kirzner. This is an upper division college textbook in price theory. It is tough slogging. It went out of print half a century ago. He never revised it. He later abandoned all traces of the #1 methodological tool of analysis of all such textbooks: equilibrium. The idea of equilibrium is based on a hypothetical and inherently misleading assumption, perfect foreknowledge. Far better is this book:
14. Competition and Entrepreneurship (1973), by Kirzner. He made his academic reputation with this book. It distinguishes between risk and uncertainty, a distinction that goes back to Frank Knight's greatest book, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (1921). Mises favorably cited Knight's book in Human Action. Kirzner's book undermines all of the graphs in Market Theory and the Price System. Textbook graphs assume equilibrium. There is no better book refuting equilibrium than Competition and Entrepreneurship. There is not one graph and not one mathematical formula in the book.
Most of these books are available from the Mises Institute, either as printed books or as free PDF's. Skim each one online. If you like it, order a printed version. Then read it, pencil or highlighter in hand.
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