A economia brasileira

A mais recente análise da economia brasileira do RGE Monitor. Acho mais interesante o último parágrafo: "... The Brazilian economy has certainly felt the pinch of the global economic crisis as demand for its exports remains significantly lower, investments contracted sharply due to a much tighter credit environment, and business and consumer confidence were damaged. Moreover, Brazilian corporations had significant dollar liabilities, leaving them vulnerable to the fall in the Brazilian real. Nonetheless, the overall performance of the economy has been somewhat resilient - Q1 2009 GDP was not as dire as consensus feared. The improvement in Brazil’s consumption in Q1 2009, especially on a quarter-on-quarter basis underpins the idea that there is some resilience in the dynamics of consumption in Brazil. Furthermore, Brazil might benefit from China’s commodity demand, meaning that the outlook for Chinese growth and the composition of its exports may be of even more significance to Brazil than that of the overall global economy. In fact, China surpassed the U.S. as the largest recipient of Brazilian exports earlier in 2009. However, Chinese commodity imports could still be pricked by higher prices. The Brazilian economy has experienced a strong pick-up in foreign exchange flows via both portfolio and direct investments in Q2 2009 and had a better-than-expected performance of the current account. The Brazilian central bank has put in place a considerably responsive monetary policy and monetary easing will likely add steam to the recovery. The central bank is also back accumulating international reserves. In the longer-term, the Brazilian economy will only return to sustained growth if reforms contribute to productivity gains. Such a framework would require a more efficient tax system, increased trade liberalization, wiser government investments and a more efficient set of labor laws, among other things. Overall, Brazil now depends on credible macroeconomic policy-making where stability of prices and a sound banking system. The expansion of the middle-class and strength of the nascent housing sector require large investments in infrastructure and education, and adequate micro- planning. The expansion of potential growth will only take place if this appropriate framework is built. The abundance of natural resources may contribute to terms of trade gains; however these could limit the development of Brazil's non-energy sector. Despite Chinese loans to Petrobras, the company still has significant investment needs to exploit the recently discovered and expensive deep-sea oil..."