O retorno do dragão

O futuro da Bovespa decide a China. Mais cedo ou tarde a China vai provocar o collapso do real e da Bovespa:

"... Foreign inflows to Brazil totaled $28.7-billion in 2009. In order to defend the US-dollar from spiraling lower, the BoB bought $24-billion on the spot foreign exchange market. BoB rate cuts were also designed to cushion the dollar’s sharp slide against the Brazilian real. Yet in a virtuous cycle, sharply lower interest rates added more fuel to the Ballistic Brazilian Bovespa Index, which gained +80% last year. The US-dollar finally found support near 1.70-reals in the fourth quarter, after losing 30-percent.

China became Brazil’s top trading partner, displacing the US, which had been Brazil’s biggest trading partner since the 1930’s. Soybeans account for a third Brazil’s exports to China, iron ore 25%, and petroleum, 10-percent. Thus, faster growth in China, the world’s biggest importer of soybean and iron ore, boosted demand for Brazil’s commodities, and buoyed its trade surplus. China has been gobbling up US stocks of soybeans at a near-record pace, but new global supplies are weighing on prices.
Bumper crops from the United States and Argentina have knocked Chicago soybean futures about 10% lower in January. The USDA said global soy production for Brazil, the #2 producer, should increase to a record 65-million tons. Brazil’s soy exports hit a record high of 28.5-million tons in 2009. Argentina, the third-largest producer, should see production recover to 53-million tons, up 66% from last year. Weaker soybean prices could shrink Brazil’s trade surplus, and undermine its currency. Operators in the Emerging markets, such as Brazil’s Bovespa, are spooked by the prospect of a extended tightening campaign in China, especially if the ruling authorities live up to their threats to slow the M2 money supply to 17-percent. That could slow China’s growth rate towards 8% and weaken demand for key industrial commodities, such iron ore controlled by Brazil’s miner Vale-Rio-Doce and oil pumped by Petrobras, which together account for nearly 40% of the Bovespa’s weighting. Although Brazil is expected to hike its Selic rate this year, it might not support the Brazilian real against the US-dollar. Instead, a slide in the Brazilian and Chinese stock markets could ignite panic sales of Bovespa shares, which in turn, could snowball into the unwinding of US-dollar carry trades. As traders dump Bovespa shares, and repay US-dollar margin loans, the US-dollar could climb higher by default..."
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