Eurozone Crisis, Act Two: Has the Bundesbank reached its limit?
| Aaron Tornell Frank Westermann 6 December 2011 |
If you thought the Eurozone crisis was coming to an end this week, this column argues that we may barely be reaching the end of Act One. Act Two in the unfolding Eurozone drama begins this week as leaders at the European summit announce emergency measures to prevent further market turmoil. Why the sudden urgency? Because the German Bundesbank is about to exhaust its capacity to lend more funds to strapped governments. In the wake of the 2008 crisis, some national central banks, especially those in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain (the GIIPS), have dramatically increased their loans to financial institutions. To fund these loans, GIIPS central banks borrowed mainly – via the ECB – from other central banks, in particular the Bundesbank. In order to fund these loans, the Bundesbank sold its holdings of German assets. Asshown in Figure 1, between December 2007 and September 2011 the central banks of the GIIPS increased their loans to domestic financial institutions by nearly €300 billion. In contrast, the stock of gross German assets in the Bundesbank balance sheet fell sharply to its lowest level in history. The ominous sign – which might set the stage for Act Two in the unfolding Eurozone drama – is the fact that the Bundesbank will soon exhaust the stock of securities that it can sell to fund further loans to the Eurosystem. At that point, the Bundesbank could sell its gold or increase the deposits it takes from the private sector. Most likely, however, the Bundesbank will face strong pressure from the German public against such action. Hence, it appears as if the Eurozone crisis is entering a second phase in which policymakers feel the need for new measures to prevent market turmoil. Mais |
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