O papel da especulação no mercado de petrôleo

The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets:
What Have We Learned So Far?
 Bassam Fattouh   Lutz Kilian   Lavan Mahadeva
        Oxford Institute for      University of Michigan          Oxford Institute for
 Energy Studies        CEPR     Energy Studies
               SOAS
March 18, 2012
               
Abstract: A popular view is that the surge in the price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by
economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in
turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has
been driving policy efforts to regulate oil futures markets. This survey reviews the evidence supporting
this view. We identify six strands in the literature corresponding to different empirical methodologies and
discuss to what extent each approach sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the existing
evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003.
Instead, there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common
economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets.
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