Modelo errado do banco central americano

Bad Models Mistook Housing Bust for Dot-Com Bubble

By Peter Orszag

In a speech last month about the financial crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanketrenchantly noted that the initial losses from the dot-com bust were about the same size as those from the housing meltdown -- yet the two episodes had very different economic consequences.
What Bernanke didn’t say was that the reason the Fed, along with every other official forecaster, underestimated the depth of the latest downturn so badly is that its models effectively treated the housing collapse as if it were merely dot-com bust 2.0. And only modest progress has been made toward avoiding that same mistake in the future.
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