Uma equação para entender o mercado financeiro da atualidade

The 1 Equation Investors Need to Know to Understand the World Today

And why it says investors should walk away from risk.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

4 Global Transitions/4 Global Experiments = 1 Unusual Market

Confused about the markets? Don't be. All you need is the above equation to understand the recent past, the present and what may lie ahead. Let me explain.
Five years after the financial crisis, the global economy is attempting four major, multi-year transitions. Each is consequential; and, together, they speak to historical re-alignments.

1. The first transition is from assisted growth to genuine and more inclusive growth, especially in the West;
2. Second, from central banks purchasing financial stability to economies developing more lasting structural stability;
3. Third, from tired China-US relations and a financially-fragmented Eurozone to new regional and global economic arrangements which re-align incentives or, at the very minimum, reduce current tensions; and
4. Fourth, from increasing social inequality and political dysfunction to institutional, political and social renewal.

Each of these transitions is complex and uncertain. Put them together -- as is the case today -- and the result is, to use Chairman Ben Bernanke's insightful formulation, "an unusually uncertain outlook."
Clearly, there is a lot at stake for both current and future generations. So, given the material downside of failed transitions, governments and central banks are reluctant to leave the steering wheel to unfettered "market forces."
Yet they lack immediate solutions. Even if they had them, their execution ability is far from perfect. They also lack proper tools, comprehensive historical frameworks, and trusted analytical models. Meanwhile, the advice they get from professional economists is all over the place. And, after the 2009 peak, global policy coordination has been reduced to ineffective summits and largely ignored communiques.
Accordingly, the world is engaged in four historic and unprecedented policy experiments:

• China, where the new leadership is managing a shift from an increasingly less-potent mercantilist growth model to one based on internal demand, while seeking to deliver it while maintaining high growth rates;

• Europe, where governments (with the help of the European Central Bank) are trying to complete an imperfect economic union in the midst of a recession, alarmingly high unemployment (especially among the young), analytical disagreements and political tensions;

• Japan, where the new government of Prime Minister Abe has embarked on the country's boldest post-war economic experiment, deploying the "three arrows" of highly unconventional monetary policy, aggressive fiscal expansion and (still to come) fundamental structural reforms; and

• The United States, where the Federal Reserve is trying to deliver growth and jobs using partial and imperfect measures, and doing so without the proper support of other policy agencies that are paralyzed by Congressional dysfunction.
• MAIS