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The Uncertainty Debate: Now a Hot Research Topic

Posted on October 7, 2013 by John Taylor

The impact of uncertainty—in particular policy uncertainty—is a hot topic of debate in the press and the blogosphere.  So the Dallas Fed decided to hold a conference last week to explore the issue. Nick Bloom of Stanford, Tom Fomby of SMU, and Evan Koenig of the Dallas Fed organized it.  Many economists who have been doing serious academic research on the topic came. They presented papers, answered questions and listened to criticism. At lunch, Richard Fisher and I gave talks and discussed policy uncertainty with Nick Bloom before a larger audience from the Dallas community which was open to and  covered by the press. Richard Fisher summarized the issue succinctly in his informative remarks: “Uncertainty matters. A lot.”  I added that the recent increase in policy uncertainty was like a climate change rather than a few isolated storms here than there due, say, to the shutdown and debt limit hikes.
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