Statistical
and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge;
statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely
anecdotal; it is the "logic of science"; it is the instrument of
risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can't be a
modern intellectual and not think probabilistically—but... let's not be
suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the
casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school. Statistics
can fool you. In fact it is fooling your government right now. It can
even bankrupt the system (let's face it: use of probabilistic methods
for the estimation of risks did just blow up the banking system).
THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS [9.15.08]
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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