Empobrecimento súbito

Folha Online: "Os norte-americanos estão enfrentando um súbito processo de empobrecimento que já destruiu cerca de US$ 16,5 trilhões da riqueza disponível entre as famílias nos últimos 15 meses. Os números são do IIF (Instituto de Finanças Internacionais), que reúne 380 grandes bancos, e foram divulgados em antecipação a dados semelhantes a serem publicados pelo Fed (o banco central dos EUA) nos próximos dias..." Leia mais: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u531248.shtml

Colapso de emprego - Estados Unidos

Petrobras

"... A Petrobras anunciou nesta sexta-feira que obteve lucro líquido recorde de R$ 33,915 bilhões em 2008, alta de 58% sobre 2007, resultado principalmente do alto preço do petróleo até o início do segundo semestre..." --

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u530756.shtml

Argentina

Por mais de 50 anos este país toma os passos errados na política econômica e ainda não para: "O governo da Argentina deu mais um passo ontem em sua escalada protecionista e impôs entraves à importação de 60 grupos de produtos do Mercosul, entre têxteis, eletrodomésticos e móveis, informa THIAGO GUIMARÃES em reportagem na Folha (íntegra disponível para assinantes do UOL e do jornal). --- http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u530301.shtml No começo do século 20, Argentina era um dos países mais rícos do mundo, e ainda nos anos 50 era mais rico de Italia. A destruição de Argentina não foi feito por fora. Foi feito por os seus propios líderes politicos. Argentina é o caso prominente das conseqüencias do "populismo econômico".

A tarefa do economista

O verdadeiro economista é que não apenas veja o efeito à curto prazo, mas também à longo prazo e que analisa as conseqüências de uma política não apenas para um grupo, mas para todos os grupos.

Crescimento e queda do emprego formal em Brasil

O Brasil visto do exterior

Foto no The Economist de um artigo sobre a economia brasileira.

Link: http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13243343&source=hptextfeature

Política fiscal expansiva em consideração

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s government has room to cut taxes and increase public works spending to spur economic growth, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said. The finance minister said the government can undertake “expansionary fiscal policy, with tax cuts and increasing public investment” to buttress Latin America’s biggest economy against the global financial crisis. Against the backdrop of slowing growth and declining tax revenue, the finance minister’s remarks raise questions about the government’s commitment to maintaining its budget targets, Nick Chamie, head of emerging market research at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto, said. -- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aLDvc0fX6Wq8&refer=news

Gráfico interativo das taxas de juros dos Estados Unidos, Japão, Euro e Grã-Bretanha 1970 - 2009 http://www.handelsblatt.com/homepage/entwicklung_leitzinsen/

Bailout

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told Congress the Obama administration will act to make sure the nation’s largest financial companies can get government help if needed to avoid collapse. “It is very important -- and we will do this -- to make sure that the major institutions in our country have the resources and the funding and the ability to play their continuing role in our markets going forward,” he said in testimony today before the House Budget Committee when asked about Citigroup Inc., which received a new round of federal aid last month. “That’s a very important commitment.” -- http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFaMsyWaYsX4&refer=home Veja o "Bailout Reader": http://mises.org/story/3128

A queda do Citigroup

-- March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. dropped below $1 in New York trading for the first time, the latest sign that stock investors are losing confidence in a company that was once the world’s biggest bank by market value. The stock fell to 99 cents at 11:22 a.m. on the New York Stock Exchange, marking an 85 percent decline this year and giving the company a market value of $5.5 billion. At its peak in late 2006, Citigroup stock was worth $55.70, giving the company a market value of $277.2 billion. Citigroup has reported more than $37.5 billion in net losses during the last five quarters and the U.S. government has provided the company with $45 billion. Last week, the government agreed to convert the preferred stock it owned in Citigroup to common shares, gaining a 36 percent stake in the company and boosting its buffer against future losses..." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKLJO8S5nFaU&refer=home

The Bailout Reader

Com mais de 850 000 citações no Internet : http://search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt=A0geu9j2NK9J5KsAbBFXNyoA?p=%22The++Bailout+Reader%22&y=Search&fr=yfp-t-501&fp_ip=BR&rd=r1&meta=vc%3Dbr com 2 artigos de Prof. Antony

Video Palestras

click on "begin" para iniciar o show depois entrar no link! Currency Arrangements in Europe. Are there Lessons for Latin America? Dr. Antony Mueller 29 de enero de 2004 3,852 visitas Safeguarding the Independence of the European Central Bank Dr. Antony Mueller 28 de enero de 2004 4,446 visitas Do Current Account Deficits Matter? Dr. Antony Mueller 27 de enero de 2004 6,597 visitas Financial Cycles, Business Activity and Asset Valuations Dr. Antony Mueller 26 de enero de 2004 4,937 visitas Inflation and Deflation in a New Capital-Based Macroeconomic Antony Mueller 9 de febrero de 2006

Video palestra sobre a crise financeira

Assista à palestra dada pelo presidente do Instituto Mises Brasil, Helio Beltrão, na FGV-SP/AIESEC, sobre a atual crise financeira Tema: A crise do crédito, suas origens e desdobramentos Instituto Mises Brasil - palestra FGV - parte 1 de 4 Instituto Mises Brasil - palestra FGV - parte 2 de 4 Instituto Mises - palestra FGV - parte 3 de 4 Instituto Mises - palestra FGV - parte 4 de 4 Aproveite também para visitar o canal do IMB no youtube, atualizado continuamente: http://www.youtube.com/user/misesbrasil

Economia Internacional

Podcasts das aulas em Economia Internacional do Prof. Antony Link: http://continentaleconomics.com/AudioLectures.html

Links

Em caso os links das postagens não funcionam automaticamente, se precisa copiar e inserir manualmente na janela.

Data show sobre a crise financeira

House of Cards - Origins of the Financial Crisis ''Then and Now'' "Let's hope we are all wealthy and retired by the time this house of cards falters." --Internal email, Wall Street, 12/15/06 Prophetic words that predicted the greatest financial collapse since the Great Depression. The current global economic collapse has its roots in the sub-prime mortgage crisis. http://www.cnbc.com/id/28993790/28892719

O Colapso Americano

Video palestra em Português de Helio Beltrão sobre as raízes da crise financeira: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMYPB2tLxc4

Modelo errado

Financial meltdown blamed on risk models Web posted at: 2/14/2009 9:20:18 Source ::: FINANCIAL TIMES By Norma Cohen The failure of banks to count, manage and hedge their risks over the past decade is responsible both for the fantastic growth before 2007 and the crash that followed, according to the Bank of England’s director for financial stability. In a speech at a risk management conference yesterday, Andrew Haldane described how the world’s banking system found itself on the brink of collapse after a decade of self-congratulation at having conquered risk. The meltdown in money markets that followed the credit squeeze was an event that banks’ risk models showed could happen only once in the lifetime of the universe - once every 13.7bn years — Haldane said. Referring to economist John Maynard Keynes’ rule of thumb that it is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong. Banking losses now “lie anywhere between a very large number and an unthinkable one”, he said. In pinpointing reasons why the systems banks use to gauge how big their losses could be under worst-case scenarios were so wrong, Haldane noted that most are based on a very short-term view of the past.

A maior bolha da historia

By MARC FABER The world has gone from the greatest synchronized global economic boom in history to the first synchronized global bust since the Great Depression. How we got here is not a cautionary tale of free markets gone wild. Rather, it's the story of what can happen when governments ignore market signals and central bankers believe in endless booms. Following the March 2000 Nasdaq bust, the Federal Reserve began to slash the fed-funds rate from 6.5% in January 2001 to 1.75% by year-end and then to 1% in 2003. (This despite the fact that officially the U.S. economy had begun to recover in November 2001). Almost three years into the economic expansion, the Fed began to increase the fed-funds rate in baby steps beginning June 2004 from 1% to 5.25% in August 2006. But because interest rates during this time continuously lagged behind nominal GDP growth as well as cost of living increases, the Fed never truly implemented tight monetary policies. Indeed, total credit increased in the U.S. from an annual growth rate of 7% in the June 2004 quarter to over 16% in early 2007. It grew five-times faster than nominal GDP between 2001 and 2007. The complete mispricing of money, combined with a cornucopia of financial innovations, led to the housing boom and allowed buyers to purchase homes with no down payments and homeowners to refinance their existing mortgages. A consumption boom followed, which was not accompanied by equal industrial production and capital spending increases. Consequently the U.S. trade and current-account deficit expanded -- the latter from 2% of GDP in 1998 to 7% in 2006, thus feeding the world with approximately $800 billion in excess liquidity that year. When American consumption began to boom on the back of the housing bubble, the explosion of imports into the U.S. were largely provided by China and other Asian countries. Rising exports from China led to that country's strong domestic industrial production, income and consumption gains, as well as very high capital spending as capacities needed to be expanded in order to meet the export demand. An economic boom in China drove the demand for oil and other commodities up. Rapidly accumulating wealth allowed the resource producers in the Middle East, Latin America and elsewhere to go on a shopping binge for luxury goods and capital goods from Europe and Japan. As a consequence of this expansionary cycle, the world experienced between 2001 and 2007 the greatest synchronized economic boom in the history of capitalism... -- Lea mais: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123491436689503909.html

O fim do livre mercado?

http://www.ft. com/cms/s/ 0/2802e3a8- f77c-11dd- 81f7-000077b0765 8.html?nclick_ check=1 Adam Smith gets the last laugh By P.J. O’Rourke Published: February 10 2009 19:22 | Last updated: February 10 2009 19:22 The free market is dead. It was killed by the Bolshevik Revolution, fascist dirigisme, Keynesianism, the Great Depression, the second world war economic controls, the Labour party victory of 1945, Keynesianism again, the Arab oil embargo, Anthony Giddens’s “third way” and the current financial crisis. The free market has died at least 10 times in the past century. And whenever the market expires people want to know what Adam Smith would say. It is a moment of, “Hello, God, how’s my atheism going?” Adam Smith would be laughing too hard to say anything. Smith spotted the precise cause of our economic calamity not just before it happened but 232 years before – probably a record for going short. “A dwelling-house, as such, contributes nothing to the revenue of its inhabitant,” Smith said in The Wealth of Nations. “If it is lett [sic] to a tenant for rent, as the house itself can produce nothing, the tenant must always pay the rent out of some other revenue.” Therefore Smith concluded that, although a house can make money for its owner if it is rented, “the revenue of the whole body of the people can never be in the smallest degree increased by it”. [281]* Smith was familiar with rampant speculation, or “overtrading” as he politely called it. The Mississippi Scheme and the South Sea Bubble had both collapsed in 1720, three years before his birth. In 1772, while Smith was writing The Wealth of Nations, a bank run occurred in Scotland. Only three of Edinburgh’s 30 private banks survived. The reaction to the ensuing credit freeze from the Scottish overtraders sounds familiar, “The banks, they seem to have thought,” Smith said, “were in honour bound to supply the deficiency, and to provide them with all the capital which they wanted to trade with.” [308] The phenomenon of speculative excess has less to do with free markets than with high profits. “When the profits of trade happen to be greater than ordinary,” Smith said, “overtrading becomes a general error.” [438] And rate of profit, Smith claimed, “is always highest in the countries that are going fastest to ruin”. [266] The South Sea Bubble was the result of ruinous machinations by Britain’s lord treasurer, Robert Harley, Earl of Oxford, who was looking to fund the national debt. The Mississippi Scheme was started by the French regent Philippe duc d’Orléans when he gave control of the royal bank to the Scottish financier John Law, the Bernard Madoff of his day. Law’s fellow Scots – who were more inclined to market freedoms than the English, let alone the French – had already heard Law’s plan for “establishing a bank ... which he seems to have imagined might issue paper to the amount of the whole value of all the lands in the country”. The parliament of Scotland, Smith noted, “did not think proper to adopt it”. [317] One simple idea allows an over-trading folly to turn into a speculative disaster – whether it involves ocean commerce, land in Louisiana, stocks, bonds, tulip bulbs or home mortgages. The idea is that unlimited prosperity can be created by the unlimited expansion of credit. Such wild flights of borrowing can be effected only with what Smith called “the Daedalian wings of paper money”. [321] To produce enough of this paper requires either a government or something the size of a government, which modern merchant banks have become. As Smith pointed out: “The government of an exclusive company of merchants, is, perhaps, the worst of all governments.” [570] The idea that The Wealth of Nations puts forth for creating prosperity is more complex. It involves all the baffling intricacies of human liberty. Smith proposed that everyone be free – free of bondage and of political, economic and regulatory oppression (Smith’s principle of “self-interest” ), free in choice of employment (Smith’s principle of “division of labour”), and free to own and exchange the products of that labour (Smith’s principle of “free trade”). “Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence,” Smith told a learned society in Edinburgh (with what degree of sarcasm we can imagine), “but peace, easy taxes and a tolerable administration of justice.” How then would Adam Smith fix the present mess? Sorry, but it is fixed already. The answer to a decline in the value of speculative assets is to pay less for them. Job done. We could pump the banks full of our national treasure. But Smith said: “To attempt to increase the wealth of any country, either by introducing or by detaining in it an unnecessary quantity of gold and silver, is as absurd as it would be to attempt to increase the good cheer of private families, by obliging them to keep an unnecessary number of kitchen utensils.” [440] We could send in the experts to manage our bail-out. But Smith said: “I have never known much good done by those who affect to trade for the public good.” [456] And we could nationalise our economies. But Smith said: “The state cannot be very great of which the sovereign has leisure to carry on the trade of a wine merchant or apothecary”. [818] Or chairman of General Motors. * Bracketed numbers in the text refer to pages in ‘The Wealth of Nations’, Glasgow Edition of the Works of Adam Smith, Oxford University Press, 1976 The writer is a contributing editor at The Weekly Standard and is the author, most recently, of On The Wealth of Nations, Books That Changed the World, published by Atlantic Books, 2007

A "nova" política externa do presidente Obama

A "nova" política econômica do presidente Obama

Ele não sabe nada sobre a economia

Presidente Obama tem o nivel pré-scolar de conhecimento sobre a economia. A única diferença entre o conhecimento de uma criança sobre como funcionar a economia e ele é o talento retórico de Obama. Veja: http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=4226934&ch=4226736&src=news

O papel do governo em criar a crise financeira

How Government Created the Financial Crisis Research shows the failure to rescue Lehman did not trigger the fall panic. By JOHN B. TAYLOR Many are calling for a 9/11-type commission to investigate the financial crisis. Any such investigation should not rule out government itself as a major culprit. My research shows that government actions and interventions -- not any inherent failure or instability of the private economy -- caused, prolonged and dramatically worsened the crisis. David GothardThe classic explanation of financial crises is that they are caused by excesses -- frequently monetary excesses -- which lead to a boom and an inevitable bust. This crisis was no different: A housing boom followed by a bust led to defaults, the implosion of mortgages and mortgage-related securities at financial institutions, and resulting financial turmoil. Monetary excesses were the main cause of the boom. The Fed held its target interest rate, especially in 2003-2005, well below known monetary guidelines that say what good policy should be based on historical experience. Keeping interest rates on the track that worked well in the past two decades, rather than keeping rates so low, would have prevented the boom and the bust. Researchers at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have provided corroborating evidence from other countries: The greater the degree of monetary excess in a country, the larger was the housing boom. The effects of the boom and bust were amplified by several complicating factors including the use of subprime and adjustable-rate mortgages, which led to excessive risk taking. There is also evidence the excessive risk taking was encouraged by the excessively low interest rates. Delinquency rates and foreclosure rates are inversely related to housing price inflation. These rates declined rapidly during the years housing prices rose rapidly, likely throwing mortgage underwriting programs off track and misleading many people. The Opinion Journal Widget Download Opinion Journal's widget and link to the most important editorials and op-eds of the day from your blog or Web page. Adjustable-rate, subprime and other mortgages were packed into mortgage-backed securities of great complexity. Rating agencies underestimated the risk of these securities, either because of a lack of competition, poor accountability, or most likely the inherent difficulty in assessing risk due to the complexity. Other government actions were at play: The government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were encouraged to expand and buy mortgage-backed securities, including those formed with the risky subprime mortgages. Government action also helped prolong the crisis. Consider that the financial crisis became acute on Aug. 9 and 10, 2007, when money-market interest rates rose dramatically. Interest rate spreads, such as the difference between three-month and overnight interbank loans, jumped to unprecedented levels. Diagnosing the reason for this sudden increase was essential for determining what type of policy response was appropriate. If liquidity was the problem, then providing more liquidity by making borrowing easier at the Federal Reserve discount window, or opening new windows or facilities, would be appropriate. But if counterparty risk was behind the sudden rise in money-market interest rates, then a direct focus on the quality and transparency of the bank's balance sheets would be appropriate. Early on, policy makers misdiagnosed the crisis as one of liquidity, and prescribed the wrong treatment. To provide more liquidity, the Fed created the Term Auction Facility (TAF) in December 2007. Its main aim was to reduce interest rate spreads in the money markets and increase the flow of credit. But the TAF did not seem to make much difference. If the reason for the spread was counterparty risk as distinct from liquidity, this is not surprising. Another early policy response was the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, passed in February. The major part of this package was to send cash totaling over $100 billion to individuals and families so they would have more to spend and thus jump-start consumption and the economy. But people spent little if anything of the temporary rebate (as predicted by Milton Friedman's permanent income theory, which holds that temporary as distinct from permanent increases in income do not lead to significant increases in consumption). Consumption was not jump-started. A third policy response was the very sharp reduction in the target federal-funds rate to 2% in April 2008 from 5.25% in August 2007. This was sharper than monetary guidelines such as my own Taylor Rule would prescribe. The most noticeable effect of this rate cut was a sharp depreciation of the dollar and a large increase in oil prices. After the start of the crisis, oil prices doubled to over $140 in July 2008, before plummeting back down as expectations of world economic growth declined. But by then the damage of the high oil prices had been done. After a year of such mistaken prescriptions, the crisis suddenly worsened in September and October 2008. We experienced a serious credit crunch, seriously weakening an economy already suffering from the lingering impact of the oil price hike and housing bust. Many have argued that the reason for this bad turn was the government's decision not to prevent the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers over the weekend of Sept. 13 and 14. A study of this event suggests that the answer is more complicated and lay elsewhere. While interest rate spreads increased slightly on Monday, Sept. 15, they stayed in the range observed during the previous year, and remained in that range through the rest of the week. On Friday, Sept. 19, the Treasury announced a rescue package, though not its size or the details. Over the weekend the package was put together, and on Tuesday, Sept. 23, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson testified before the Senate Banking Committee. They introduced the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), saying that it would be $700 billion in size. A short draft of legislation was provided, with no mention of oversight and few restrictions on the use of the funds. The two men were questioned intensely and the reaction was quite negative, judging by the large volume of critical mail received by many members of Congress. It was following this testimony that one really begins to see the crisis deepening and interest rate spreads widening. The realization by the public that the government's intervention plan had not been fully thought through, and the official story that the economy was tanking, likely led to the panic seen in the next few weeks. And this was likely amplified by the ad hoc decisions to support some financial institutions and not others and unclear, seemingly fear-based explanations of programs to address the crisis. What was the rationale for intervening with Bear Stearns, then not with Lehman, and then again with AIG? What would guide the operations of the TARP? It did not have to be this way. To prevent misguided actions in the future, it is urgent that we return to sound principles of monetary policy, basing government interventions on clearly stated diagnoses and predictable frameworks for government actions. Massive responses with little explanation will probably make things worse. That is the lesson from this crisis so far. Mr. Taylor, a professor of economics at Stanford and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, is the author of "Getting Off Track: How Government Actions and Interventions Caused, Prolonged and Worsened the Financial Crisis," published later this month by Hoover Press.-- http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123414310280561945.html#printMode

Você sabia?

Uma curta video apresentação sobre o mundo de hoje e a tecnologia moderna: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY&eurl=http://whatreallyhappened.com/&feature=player_embedded

EUA em bancarotta

Is It Time to Bail Out of the US? By Paul Craig Roberts January 28, 2009 "Information Clearinghouse" -- "California State Controller John Chiang announced on January 26 that California’s bills exceed its tax revenues and credit line and that the state is going to print its own money known as IOUs. The template is already designed. Instead of receiving their state tax refunds in dollars, California residents will receive IOUs. Student aid and payments to disabled and needy will also come in the form of IOUs. California is negotiating with banks to get them to accept the IOUs as deposits. California is often identified as the world’s eighth largest economy, and it is broke. A person might think that California’s plight would introduce some realism into Washington, DC, but it has not. President Obama is taking steps to intensify the war in Afghanistan and, perhaps, to expand it to Pakistan. Obama has retained the Republican warmongers in the Pentagon, and the US continues to illegally bomb Pakistan and to murder its civilians. At the World Economic Forum at Davos this week, Pakistan’s prime minister, Y. R. Gilani, said that the American attacks on Pakistan are counterproductive and done without Pakistan’s permission. In an interview with CNN, Gilani said: “I want to put on record that we do not have any agreement between the government of the United States and the government of Pakistan.” How long before Washington will be printing money? On January 28 Obama announced his $825 billion bailout plan. This comes on top of President Bush’s $700 billion bailout of just a few months ago. Obama says his plan will be more transparent than Bush’s and will do more good for the economy. As large as the bailouts are--a total of $1.5 trillion in four months--the amount is small in relation to the reported size of troubled assets that are in the tens of trillions of dollars. How do we know that by June there won’t be another bailout, say $950 billion? Where will the money come from? Obama’s bailout plan, added to the FY 2009 budget deficit he has inherited from Bush, opens a gaping expenditure hole of about $3 trillion. Who is going to purchase $3 trillion of US Treasury bonds? Not the US consumer. The consumer is out of work and out of money. Private sector credit market debt is 174% of GDP. The personal savings rate is 2 percent. Ten percent of households are in foreclosure or arrears. Household debt-service ratio is at an all-time high. Household net worth has declined at a record rate. Housing inventories are at record highs. Not America’s foreign creditors. At best, the Chinese, Japanese, and Saudis can recycle their trade surpluses with the US into Treasury bonds, but the combined surplus does not approach the size of the US budget deficit. Perhaps another drop in the stock market will drive Americans’ remaining wealth into “safe” US Treasury bonds. If not, there’s only the printing press. The printing press would turn a deflationary depression into an inflationary depression. Unemployment combined with rising prices would be a killer. Inflation would kill the dollar as well, leaving the US unable to pay for its imports. All the Obama regime sees is a “credit problem.” But the crisis goes far beyond banks’ bad investments. The United States is busted. Many of the state governments are busted. Homeowners are busted. Consumers are busted. Jobs are busted. Companies are busted. And Obama thinks he has the money to fight wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Except for the superrich and those banksters and CEOs who stole wealth from investors and shareholders, Americans have suffered enormous losses in wealth and income. The stock market decline has destroyed about 45% of their IRAs, 401Ks, and other equity investments. On top of this comes the decline in home prices, lost jobs and health care, lost customers. The realized gains in mutual funds and investment partnerships, on which Americans paid taxes, have been wiped out. The government should give those taxes back. Americans who have seen their retirement savings devastated by complicity of government regulators and lawmakers with financial gangsters should not have to pay any income tax when they draw on their pensions. The financial damage inflicted on Americans by their own government is as great as would be expected from foreign conquest. While Washington “protected” us from terrorists by fighting pointless wars abroad, the US economy collapsed. How can President Obama even think about fighting wars half way around the world while California cannot pay its bills, while Americans are being turned out of their homes, while, as Business Week reports, retirees will work throughout their retirement (which assumes that there will be jobs), while careers are being destroyed and stores and factories shuttered. Americans are facing tremendous unemployment and hardship. Obama doesn’t have another dollar to spend on Bush’s wars. Taxpayers are busted. They cannot stand another day of being milked by the military-security complex. The US government is paying private mercenaries more by the day than the monthly checks it is providing to Social Security retirees. This is insanity. The banksters robbed us twice. First it was our home and stock values. Then the government rewarded the banksters for their misdeeds by bailing out the banksters, not their victims, and putting the cost on the taxpayers’ books. The government has also robbed the taxpayers of $3 trillion dollars to fight its wars. About $600 billion are out of pocket costs, and the rest is on the taxpayers’ books. When foreign creditors look at the debt piled on the taxpayers’ books, they don’t see a good credit risk. Washington is so accustomed to ripping off the taxpayers for the benefit of special interests that the practice is now in the DNA. While bailouts are being piled upon bailouts, wars are being piled upon wars. Before Obama gets in any deeper, he must ask his economic team where the money is coming from. When he finds out, he needs to tell the rest of us." http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21867.htm

A nova política monetária Americana

Crise financeira entra fase do colapso

Gingrich: Economy headed 'off a cliff' Says Obama response is 'more of the same' Jon Ward (Contact) Monday, February 2, 2009 Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich on Monday morning painted a dire picture of the U.S. economy, saying that it is headed "off a cliff" and that President Obama has failed to bring fresh and original thinking to the problem so far. Mr. Gingrich, 65, said that the nightmare scenario used by top financial officials to persuade President Bush into crafting the $700 billion bailout last fall is still on the way. "Probably I would have voted yes," Mr. Gingrich said of the bailout, "just because if you have the secretary of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve chairman saying to you, 'Vote yes or we're all going to go off a cliff.'" "Well, the fact is, we're all going to go off a cliff. That's what's happening. This is a much more profound problem than people think," said Mr. Gingrich, a Republican from Georgia, during a breakfast with reporters and columnists organized by the Christian Science Monitor. "I keep getting told there's another [$1.2 trillion] in losses coming down the road, minimum. Goldman Sachs, I think, said Friday, $4 trillion to finish bailing out the banks," he said, predicting another "three to five years, at a minimum, of working our way through this." And Mr. Gingrich, who has earned a reputation for irascibility, slammed the Obama administration's current response. "The continuity between the Bush bailout and the Obama bailout will be mildly amazing. This is not the change you can believe in. This is more of the same," he said, mocking one of Mr. Obama's campaign slogans. Mr. Gingrich's harshest words were reserved for recently confirmed Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, whom he mentioned repeatedly as a symbol of the government and business class refusing to learn lessons. "Geithner is fronting for the banks. Frankly, that's what I think Paulson ended up doing. Paulson ended up being a Wall Street deal-maker who was happy to take your money to bail out Wall Street deal-makers. That's not the purpose of the secretary of the Treasury." --- http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/feb/02/gingrich-economy-headed-cliff/

Internet uso

Aquecimento Global

Crise financeira - a estrada do ruim

Busca onde ficou o dinheiro com a ajuda de este site interativo: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-roberts-on-business-blog/interactive/2009/jan/29/financial-pyramid

Política, ética e capitalismo

Milton Friedman fala sobre ética e capitalismo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWsx1X8PV_A&feature=email 3 min entrevista Youtube video

Taxas de câmbio - O Big Mac Index

Macro I - Notas provisórias

Notas Macro I 06131324 7 05132023 6 04134386 7 06132464 6 07130191 7 05131056 IC 06130871 7 0613 231 7 04134234 7 05134717 6 06134310 10 04130821 5 07130377 9 07130582 10 06133159 8 07130567 10 06134346 7 07130270 7 02131520 5 05131962 5 Caso tem dúvidas mande e-mail antonymueller@gmail.com próxima aula: quinta 19 horas para completar IC (incompleto)e demais

Economia Monetária - Notas

Economia Monetária Notas finais provisórias 04132394 6 05132442 7 06133012 8 05132270 7 05134392 6 92120958 7 04132531 7 96121651 7 06134194 7 04132703 6 08130323 8 06134388 7 02133200 7 05130471 6 Davisson 6

Fundamentos de Economia

Notas finais provisórias Se tem dúvidas mande e-mail: antonymueller@gmail.com ou ligue 8153 4022 NB: a última cifra é a sua nota (o blog não tomou tab) 08130168 8 08130267 9 07110380 9 08130606 9 08130274 8 08130366 9 08130142 - 08130203 9 08130455 8 08130520 8 02113694 - 08130293 9 08130251 8 0813200 - 08130190 9 06130996 - 08130432 8 07110066 - 08130244 9 07110089 8 08130179 8 0813620 - 08130475 7 08130285 - 08130294 9 08130177 8 08130230 7 Faltas? 08130385 7 Faltas? 04112451 - 08130161 10 08130180 8 08130254 8 08130460 8 08130215 8 08130206 8 07230057 - 97124255 - 08130238 8 08130246 9 08130245 9 08130258 8 07110047 9 08130237 9 08130307 8 08130615 7 Faltas? 08130471 9 08130233 8 08130441 8 05133954 7 Faltas? 08130466 8 08130456 7 08130196 9 08130290 9 08130277 7 07110058 8 0830446 (Paulo) 8 Marina 8

Circo chinês

14/01 Exibição do filme The Corporation O filme se trata de um docomentário sobre os problemas históricos e contemporâneos do Capitalismo. PROGRAMAÇÃO Horário: 9h às 12h Data: 14/01/2009 Local: Auditório da Reitoria ORGANIZAÇÃO PROFESSORES ANTONY MÜLLER ( DEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMIA) E AFONSO NASCIMENTO ( DEPARTAMENTO DE DIREITO)

Fundamentos de Economia

Prova III 17 de Dezembro 2008 Temas: A. Economia Monetária B. Política Econômica C. Crescimento Econômico A) Economia Monetária Funções da moeda Definição de moeda Moeda fiduciária Sistema bancário de reserva fracionária Dinheiro como o activo mais líquido Liquidez Meios de pagamentos Depósitos à vista (conta corrente) Reservas bancárias (voluntárias e compulsórias) taxa de reserva compulsória Multiplicador bancário dos depósitos Criação múltipla do depósito à vista Base monetária (BM) Função do Banco Central (produtor de notas, gerenciar política monetária) Criação de dinheiro por bancos comerciais (emprestimos) Demando por moeda Oferta de moeda taxa de juros B)Política Econômica Metas macroeconômicas (alta renda, alto nível de emprego, estabilidade monetária) Política: Política fiscal e política monetária Instrumentos: PF - Gastos do governo (G), impostos (T) PM - Taxa de juros (i), massa monetária (M) Política de estabilização (política conjuntural) Política econômica restritiva corrigir demanda excessiva: G-, T+, M-, i+ Política econômica expansiva corrigir demanda insuficiente: G+, T-, M+, i- Política de crescimento econômico (fortalecer a oferta) C) Crescimento Econômico Melhoria tecnológica invenção inovação poupança investimentos capital capital humana (educação, saúde) Melhoria institucional instituições jurídicas estabilidade política Condições básicas para lançar crescimento econômico (aumento da renda nacional ao longo prazo) garantia dos direitos de propriedade (property rights) estabilidade política (processo política previsivel) mercados competitivos (concorrência econômica) estabilidade monetária (moeda e preços, sistema financeiro) comércio livre (comércio internacional, abertura econômica) mercado de capitais aberto (fluxos de capital) Ausência de impostos com elevados alíquotas marginais A concorrência como método de descobrimento econômico (experimento econômico)num processo de imitação e com pioneiros

US taxa de juros à zero (0)

Macro I - estoques: produção sem vendas

"LONG BEACH, California (Reuters) – From pricey luxury sedans to popular hybrid cars, automobiles made overseas are stacking up at ports and parking lots around the United States as supplies far outstrip demand amid the nation's worst auto market in more than 25 years. At the Long Beach port near Los Angeles, Toyota Motor Corp vehicles including Prius hybrids, FJ Cruiser sport utility vehicles and Lexus IS 250 luxury sedans are being stored on a vast construction site that will one day be a new container terminal..." http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081207/us_nm/us_autos_ports Tarefa: Como este fenomeno se pode modelar na cruz keynesiana?

Moeda local

"...Residents from the Milwaukee neighborhoods of Riverwest and East Side are scheduled to meet Wednesday to discuss printing their own money. The idea is that the local cash could be used at neighborhood stores and businesses, thus encouraging local spending. The result, supporters hope, would be a bustling local economy, even as the rest of the nation deals with a recession... It's not a new concept—experts estimate there are at least 2,000 local currencies all over the world—but it is a practice that tends to burgeon during economic downturns. During the Great Depression, scores of communities relied on their own currencies. And it's completely legal..." http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-talk_moneydec03,0,2902061.story

Próximas provas

Fundamentos de Economia 17 de Dezembro Análise Macroeconômica 18 de Decembro

Taxa de desemprego Estados Unidos

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. companies slashed payrolls last month at the fastest pace in 34 years as the economy headed for its deepest and longest recession since World War II. Employers cut 533,000 jobs, bringing losses so far this year to 1.91 million, the Labor Department said today in Washington. November’s drop exceeded all 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent, the highest level since 1993...-- http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aLgwfpZSD.R0&refer=home

Como manipular a estadística

Jim Jubak: "... Most criticism of the official inflation number, the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, has focused on the statistical flimflam used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to calculate how fast prices are going up. Chief among these is a technique called hedonics. Starting in the 1990s, some economists and government statisticians began arguing that a $100 increase in the price of, say, a car wasn't really a $100 price increase if the power, safety features or general usefulness of the car improved substantially. If the subjective value of the car went up by $100, then, despite the increase in what you paid, according to the government, the price didn't go up at all. The objection to this kind of adjustment is that it introduces a huge amount of subjectivity into the process of calculating inflation. Determining the increased usefulness of a product or service requires a subjective judgment about the value of this or that feature. What is the extra horsepower of a car worth to a user? How about extra safety features? And to which user? And if the cost of a car went up by $100 even if it came with more and better features, wasn't the price still in reality $100 higher? Hedonic quality adjustments weren't the only statistical adjustments that the government made to the inflation numbers. Starting in 1983, the government also started to measure changes in the cost of housing by looking not at the cost of a house but at what an owner would get if he or she rented out that house. Since in a housing boom the price of houses rises about three times as fast as rents do, this change understated the rate of inflation. In the 1990s, the government also started to include substitution pricing in its inflation measure. In this adjustment, government statisticians assumed that if the price of something went up, people would use less and would substitute a less costly product or service. So when steak went up in price, consumers might buy more pork or chicken. Figuring out what substitution a consumer would make again added to the subjectivity of the inflation numbers. Including substitution destroyed the whole point of the exercise because it turned the government's shopping basket from an inflation measure to a set of lifestyle choices..." http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/fake-inflation-numbers-masked-crisis.aspx?page=all Veja tambem: http://www.mises.org/story/1873 Tarefa: Investigue as consequencias de um metodo de calculo que resulta em taxas de inflaçao mais baixas para outras indicadores econômicos, especialmente taxa de crescimento e produtividade.

Novos podcasts

"O que é a Moeda?" (15 Min) "Moeda e Bancos" "Moeda e a Taxa de Juros" Link: http://continentaleconomics.com/OnlineCampus.html

Base monetária US dólar

De Bush à Obama

Palestra de Prof. Antony Mueller "De Bush à Obama. Continuidade e Ruptura na Política Econômica dos Estados Unidos" 27 de Novembro de 2008 Programa de Doutorado em Sociologia Universidade Federal de Sergipe UFS Podcast: De Bush à Obama Data show: De Bush à Obama Link: http://continentaleconomics.com/OnlineCampus.html

Estados Unidos: resgates financeiros do governo e do banco central

Balanço do Banco Central dos Estados Unidos

Agenda

25 de Novembro: Prova 2 Macro I 26 de Novembro: Prova 2 Fundamentos de Economia 27 de Novembro: Palestra de Prof. Dr. Antony Mueller: "De Bush à Obama. Continuidade e Ruptura da Política Econômica dos Estados Unidos" DID 2 - Programa de Doutorado em Sociologia 19 - 20 horas 02 de Dezembro: Prova 2 Economia Monetária

Novos Podcasts - Fundamentos de Economia

Conceitos básicos IV - Mercados e Estado Análise de Demanda e Oferta Teoria de Preços Análise de Mercados Impactos de Intervenções Governamentais Controle de Preços Análise de Problemas Macroeconômicos Problemas do Intervencionismo Revisão Mercados, Preço, Estado LINK: http://continentaleconomics.com/OnlineCampus.html

Macro I - Prova 2 - Resumo

PROF. DR. ANTONY MUELLER UFS RESUMO PROVA II ANÁLISE MACROECONÔMICA Terça, 25 de Novembro 2008 Tema: Mercado de bens, Cruz keynesiana, Mercado financeiro 1. Mercado de bens Demanda total: Z = C + I + G + EX – IM Demanda total para uma economia fechada com governo Z = C + I + G Função de consumo C = f (Yd) Yd = Y – T Equilíbrio: Z = Y Função de consumo (tipo Keynes) C = c0 + c1Yd ou C = c0 + c1(Y – T) → Z = c0 + c1(Y – T) + I + G = Y Derivando o multiplicador Y = c0 + c1Y – c1T + I + G (veja acima) Y – c1Y = c0 + I + G – c1T Y(1-c1) = c0 + I + G – c1T Y = 1/(1-c1) [c0 + I + G – c1T] [c0 + I + G – c1T] representam gastos autônomos (não dependem do produto) 1/(1-c1) é o “multiplicador” que multiplica o gasto autônomo Nota ( com c1 = c) 0 < c < 1 c + s = 1 c = propensão marginal de consumo s = propensão marginal de poupança maior c, maior o multiplicador maior s, menor o multiplicador com c = 0.6 1/(1-c) = 1/0.4 = 2.5 1 bilhão de gastos autônomos (demanda) se transforma em 2.5 bilhões de aumenta da renda dado a economia tem recursos subutilizados, i.e. se a economia está abaixa do pleno emprego. Seqüência keynesiana”: D → Q → R → D (J. M. Keynes) “Seqüência clássica”: Q → R → D → Q (J.B. Say) Nota: “Gap deflacionário” Y0 < YPE O equilíbrio macroeconômico (Y0) se instalou abaixo do pleno emprego (YPE) “Receita keynesiana”: Aumentar os gastos autônomos para fechar o “gap deflacionário” “Gap inflacionário” YE > YPE O equilíbrio e acima do pleno emprego (demanda demais) Receita keynesiana: Reduzir os gastos autônomos para fechar o “gap inflacionário” YPE = Demanda/renda/produto que segura pleno emprego YE = Renda de equilíbrio que não precisa ser necessariamente igual à renda de pleno emprego (YPE) O “paradoxo da poupança” S = Y – T – C = Y – T – c0 - c1 (Y – T) = - c0 + Y – T – c1Y + c1 T S = - c0 + (1 - c1) (Y – T) S = I I = SPR + (T –G) Análise de mercados financeiros Demanda por moeda Md = kY (Equação de Cambridge) Y = Yr P k = 1/V M = 1/V x Yr x P Transformer na equação quantitative da moeda → M x V = Yr x P (Equação de Fisher) Demanda por liquidez M = L (Y, i) Keynes Com L (i) como uma função decrescente da taxa de juros Oferta de moeda Com Ms (oferta) determinada por o Banco Central e L (demanda) dependente da renda (Y) e da taxa de juros (i) Multiplicador monetário m M = m x BP BP = N + R (a base monetária existe em notas em circulação e reservas bancárias) Com m = 1/r r = taxa de reservas r = R/D R = Ro + Rv As reservas bancárias existem em reservas obrigatórias (ou compulsórias) e em reservas voluntárias Veja modelo gráfico da determinação da taxa de juros (p. 64) Relação entre taxa de juros e o mercado financeiro i = (100 – PB)/PB PB = 100/(1 + i) Se o preço de debêntures (bonds) PB baixa, a taxa de juro implícita (i) vai aumentar e vice versa Se o banco central aumenta a taxa básica de juros (SELIC no Brasil, Federal Funds Rate nos Estados Unidos), os preços de debêntures (PB) em circulação vai cair e vice versa Operações do banco central: Comprar/vender títulos para afetar a massa monetária e a taxa de juros diretamente Aumentar/reduzir empréstimos para os bancos comerciais para afetar a massa monetária e a taxa de juros indiretamente Aumentar/reduzir a taxa de reservas obrigatórias (ro) para dar impulsos negativos ou positivos dos empréstimos bancários Aumenta “r”, causa c.p. baixar “m” e vice versa. (não confundir com o multiplicador da renda) O modelo keynesiano é um modelo de curto prazo o que significa que se refere a um período sem mudanças da capacidade.

America the Illiterate

"The core values of our open society, the ability to think for oneself, to draw independent conclusions, to express dissent when judgment and common sense indicate something is wrong, to be self-critical, to challenge authority, to understand historical facts, to separate truth from lies, to advocate for change and to acknowledge that there are other views, different ways of being, that are morally and socially acceptable, are dying. Obama used hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign funds to appeal to and manipulate this illiteracy and irrationalism to his advantage, but these forces will prove to be his most deadly nemesis once they collide with the awful reality that awaits us..." Chris Hedges: "America the Illiterate" http://www.rense.com/general84/amrr.htm

Novos podcasts

Teoria de Preços Análise de Mercados Problemas do Intervencionismo Impactos de Intervenções Governamentais Controle de Preços link: http://continentaleconomics.com/OnlineCampus.html

Balanço conta corrente (trimestral) Estados Unidos

Base monetária - Estados Unidos

Dívida pública na mão do banco central

Federal Funds Rate (taxa de juros básica)

Dívida pública Estados Unidos

M1 estoque monetário

Multiplicador monetário

MZM - Moeda zero maturidade

Crédito ao consumidor

Declaração final da cúpula G20

Folha de Sâo Paulo: "Na declaração final da Cúpula do G20, neste sábado em Washington (EUA), os líderes se comprometeram a realizar uma reforma dos mercados financeiros por maior transparência e regulação, e que promova uma maior integridade no sistema... No documento, os líderes do grupo --cujos países representam 85% da economia mundial-- se comprometem a aplicar medidas fiscais para estimular as economias nacionais, e lista seis áreas que devem ser priorizadas antes de 31 de março de 2009., além de reformar o FMI (Fundo Monetário Internacional)... Leia íntegra em inglês: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u468156.shtml

Cúpula G20

"... A capital dos Estados Unidos retornou neste domingo (16) à normalidade após a Cúpula do G20 (que reúne os países mais ricos e os principais emergentes), chamada de "histórica" por alguns participantes, mas na qual os observadores vêem, por enquanto, mais promessas que ações concretas... O jornal americano "The New York Times" destacou hoje que "embora as propostas tenham sido apresentadas ambiciosamente, refletem principalmente medidas que os países já tinham iniciado"..." http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u468342.shtml

Reforma do sistema financeiro internacional

Antony Mueller: Reforming the World's Financial Order. Institutional and Theoretical Aspects (2001) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Abstract Modern financial markets are characterized by rapid innovation and expansion as well as intensive internationalization. The liberalization of capital markets since the 1980s has been accompanied by a shift from structural regulations towards prudential supervision along with endeavors to establish international norms on capital adequacy. During the same period, the markets have been hit by a series of crises, which have caused concern that more strict and direct controls are warranted. This paper argues that although liberalized capital markets do in some way possess an inherent tendency towards instability, almost all cases of severe disturbances in the international capital markets are the result of excessively expansive fiscal and monetary policies, which at some point had to give way to a sharp liquidity contraction. In order to stabilize the system, the monetary and fiscal authorities quite often accelerated expansive measures, exposing investors, lenders and borrowers to misleading interest rate and price signals which resulted in a postponement of the adaptation process and in a number of cases to the prolongation of stagnation. Given the international integration of modern financial markets, misplaced monetary and fiscal policies cause various international spillover effects. Repeated bailouts of borrowers and creditors by central banks, governments and international institutions have led to the persistence of moral hazard as the assumption of implicit guarantees to stabilize financial markets has lowered the perception of risk and resulted in over-exposure. This analysis leads to the conclusion that while more strict regulations might be applied to off-balance financial innovations and that capital adequacy norms should be more strictly enforced on an international level, further direct control seems to bring more harm than good and deflect the attention from the causes of financial instability which are the inadequate control of liquidity." Fonte: http://www.iwp.uni-koeln.de/DE/Publikationen/zfw/1-01/mueller.htm Mueller: Reforming the World Financial Order. Institutional and Theoretical Aspects . In: Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 50 (2001), Nr. 1, pp. 15-34

Encontro G20

"... A cúpula que reunirá esta semana em Washington os chefes de Estado e de governo das principais economias do mundo visa a iniciar a reforma do sistema financeiro em mais de meio século, mas não produzirá mudanças imediatas, segundo os analistas..." Leia mais: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u467824.shtml Tarefa: Identifique as posições e intereses dos grupos e faz uma comparação com a posição e os interesses do Brasil.

Encontro G20

Ainda tem muitas diferenças entre os participantes: "...Europeans want universal banking regulations and broad changes in financial governance. The Bush administration stands opposed and Barack Obama, who is to replace Bush on Jan. 20, 2009, is considered likely to back increased stimulus spending and tougher national regulations but unlikely to agree to set up a global regulator... ...Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who also is acting president of the G20, echoed those concerns earlier this week, saying: "This situation means that we also think about change in multilateral institutions which have lost much of their representativeness in the last years." Nor is the G20 - admittedly more inclusive than the G8 - sufficiently representative to come up with solutions on behalf of the rest of the world. "Our way out has to be global," Lula told a news conference. Established in 1999, the G20 consists of the G8 - Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, and the United States - plus Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey, with the last slot taken by the European Union (EU) as a bloc." http://www.truthout.org/111408S Tarefa: Descreve qual é a posição do Brasil e mostre se é adequada para segurar um futuro próspero ou não.

Petrobras

"...Petrobras is already the biggest company in Brazil, with a market value of more than $240 billion, and it is the government's largest single taxpayer. It employs some 52,000 workers, but the new oil find has kindled optimism that new jobs and opportunities lay ahead, especially in the shipping industry in ports along the Atlantic coast... Last November, Petrobras announced its discovery of the Tupi field, which holds an estimated 5 to 8 billion barrels of oil. In September, the company said that the nearby Iara field holds up to 4 billion barrels. But analysts estimate that the region could contain up to 80 billion barrels, about the same as Venezuela. Brazil currently produces more than 2 million barrels a day. By 2015, that could increase to 3 million... When Petrobras began operations in 1954, it was producing just 2,700 barrels a day, less than 3 percent of the country's needs. Brazil remained a heavy crude importer over the next two decades, but the oil shock of the 1970s unfurled a technological fervor. Unlike Mexico, whose discovery of the Cantarell field in 1976 – one of the world's largest oil reserves – thrust it easily into oil exportation, most of Brazil's richest deposits were offshore. "We learned early that to be successful we had to have technological domain," says Carlos Tadeu da Costa Fraga, the executive manager of Cenpes, which was created in 1955 and today, with 2,000 employees, is the largest research center in Latin America. "In deep waters, we have much more experience than other countries in the world." In the 1970s, Petrobras developed equipment and techniques to pump oil that lay deeper than most other companies could reach at the time. And today a new task is at hand as Brazil gets set to tap its newest oil find, which sits at some of the deepest levels in the world – more than 7,000 meters under the ocean's surface. But investment in technology is only part of the story. In 1997, Brazilian lawmakers created a concession model, opening up what had been a monopoly to outsiders who compete with Petrobras on bidding and developing leases. Its shares have been publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange since 2000. The government owns the majority of voting shares, but today 70 percent of total equity is in the hands of private investors, making it much more responsive to global accounting standards and corporate governance..."-- Leia mais: http://www.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=Brazil+as+a+new+kind+of+oil+giant+|+csmonitor.com&expire=&urlID=32435054&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.csmonitor.com%2F2008%2F1114%2Fp01s04-woam.html&partnerID=309791

Encontro do G20

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- A two-day summit on the global economic crisis begins today in Washington with world leaders likely to agree on little more than trying to spend their way out of a global recession. The Group of 20 heads of state are divided on what needs to be done after that. European leaders are demanding greater state controls over financial markets. President George W. Bush, who hosts a dinner of his counterparts at the White House tonight, takes a narrower view..."-- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ahyQOB.59C8A&refer=news

Dívida pública

Quem faz parte do G20?

veja: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20_industrial_nations

BaCen: Novas regras para depósitos compulsórios

da Folha Online, em Brasília O Banco Central anunciou nesta quinta-feira uma nova mudança nos depósitos compulsórios para colocar mais dinheiro na economia. Será alterada a forma de recolhimento de cerca de R$ 40 bilhões, o que representa quase 20% de todo o compulsório depositado hoje no BC. A contração do crédito e a falta de liquidez (dinheiro em circulação) é o principal reflexo da crise financeira no Brasil. O compulsório adicional sobre depósitos à vista, a prazo e poupança (chamado pelo BC de "exigibilidade adicional"), que hoje é recolhido em espécie, passará a ser recolhido em títulos públicos a partir de 1º de dezembro. Veja as medidas já anunciadas no Brasil para combater os efeitos da crise 10 questões para entender o tremor na economia Entenda a evolução da crise que atinge a economia dos EUA ... http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u467232.shtml

Economia Monetária

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's National Monetary Council is allowing banks to use government bonds instead of cash to meet certain reserve requirements that total 40 billion reais ($17.5 billion) in a bid to increase liquidity...-- http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a9pAWVB5bv4g&refer=news

Mission impossible for Obama

O caminho de pobreza

- The financialization of the economy, moving from manufacturing to speculation; - Very high levels of debt; - Extreme economic inequality; - Costly military overreaching. Adopted from Kevin Phillips: "Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism" (2007)

O caminho de prosperidade

"Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice: all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things." Adam Smith Lecture in 1755, quoted by Dugald Stewart

O desafio de Obama

Fox business YouTube video: O que podemos esperar sob a nova presidência nos anos que vem? veja: http://heyokamagazine.com/heyoka.20.geraldcelente.htm As previsões de Gerald Celente: Os Estados Unidos vai se tornar numa nação "undevoloped" ("dedesenvolvida") com - tax revolt (rebelião contra imposts) - job marches (demonstrações trabalhistas - food riots (rebelião para comida) - squatter revolt (rebelião de pessoas sem moradia) Gerald Celente prevê um período de tempo pior que a grande depressão. Em vez de "we can" o novo governo vai realisar que "we can't". Os Estados Unidos vai entrar num declinio econômico geral. Até hoje os Estados Unidos ainda não estão preparado para este choque e continuam estar em um estado de negação, incluindo negar que já estamos numa forte recessão. Não vai ter mais um Natal como festa extrema de consumo.

Novos podcasts - Fundamentos de economia

Análise de Demanda e Oferta Teoria de Preços Análise de Mercados Problemas do Intervencionismo Link: http://continentaleconomics.com/OnlineCampus.html

Grandes caídas da bolsa de valores

Dados mercados emergentes

Taxas marginais de impostos durante a Grande Depressão

TAM

SÃO PAULO - A desvalorização do real perante o dólar também prejudicou o resultado trimestral da TAM. A companhia aérea voltou ao vermelho no terceiro trimestre, ao registrar prejuízo líquido de R$ 112,7 milhões. Segundo a empresa, essa perda reflete a queda de 4,1% do real ante o dólar e as perdas com operações de hedge de combustível. No mesmo intervalo de 2007, a TAM havia tido lucro de R$ 48,5 milhões...-- http://www.valoronline.com.br/ValorOnLine/MateriaCompleta.aspx?tit=TAM+perde+R$+112,7+milhões,+pressionada+por+valorização+do+dólar&codmateria=5255091&dtmateria=10+11+2008&codcategoria=12&tp=371237771

CSN

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Cia. Siderurgica Nacional, Brazil's third-biggest steelmaker, may post its first loss in six years after bets on its own stock soured last quarter. CSN, as the steelmaker is known, may say this week it had a third-quarter loss of 414 million reais ($192 million), compared with a profit of 699.2 million reais a year earlier... The Rio de Janeiro-based steelmaker held 1.98 billion reais of so-called total-return equity swaps tied to its American depositary receipts as of June 30, according to a company filing. CSN's bets that its ADRs would extend a five-year rally turned bad last quarter after commodity prices fell, sending the equities down 52 percent... CSN also took a hit after the Brazilian real plunged 16 percent in the quarter, boosting the size of its dollar- denominated debt in local-currency terms. The increased debt, coupled with expenses related to the bad stock bets, may lead to financial costs of 1.6 billion reais..." http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aLHsN.G887R8&refer=news

Petrobras

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, the investor darling among the world's largest oil companies in the first half of the year, has become the biggest loser. Petrobras, as Brazil's state-controlled oil producer is known, is the worst performer among the top 10 publicly traded oil companies since May. The stock dropped 53 percent on concern falling energy prices and the global credit crisis will block or delay efforts to tap the biggest offshore discovery in the Americas in three decades. Earnings growth will slow from 80 percent in the third quarter to 6.2 percent next year, according to the averages of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg..." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aexpVGrbff3c&refer=news

Conhecimentos errados

"The trouble with the world is not that people know too little, but that they know so many things that aren't true."--attributed to Mark Twain Easy answers are seldom correct ones. That principle seems to be at work as the nation struggles to discover the causes of the financial crisis now rocking the economy. Looking for a simple and politically convenient villain, many politicians have blamed deregulation by the Bush Administration. ... presidential candidate Barack Obama asserted in the second presidential debate that "the biggest problem in this whole process was the deregulation of the financial system." But there is one problem with this answer: Financial services were not deregulated during the Bush Administration. If there ever was an "era of deregulation" in the financial world, it ended long ago. And the changes made then are for the most part non-controversial today... A False Narrative. In the wake of the financial crisis gripping the nation, it is tempting to blame “deregulation” for triggering the problem. After all,if the meltdown were caused by the ill-advised elimination of necessary rules, the answer would be easy: Restore those rules. But that storyline is simply not true. Not only was there little deregulation of financial services during the Bush years, but most of the regulatory reforms achieved in earlier years mitigated,rather than contributed to, the crisis. http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/upload/wm_2109.pdf

G 20

"O G20 financeiro --que congrega ministros de Economia e presidentes de bancos centrais das grandes economias desenvolvidas e emergentes-- se reúne todos os anos desde 1999. Neste ano, diante da conjuntura internacional, o foco é a crise financeira iniciada nos EUA que se alastrou pelo mundo... Juntos, os países membros representam cerca de 90% do produto nacional bruto mundial, 80% do comércio internacional e cerca de dois terços da população do planeta..." http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u465626.shtml

Brasil no mundo

"... Unlike North Americans and Europeans, Latin Americans aren't particularly keen on the idea of acting in haste, planning ahead or worrying too much about the future. They have grown accustomed to dealing with the unlikely, the implausible, the unpredictable and uncontrollable, such as the exact timing of a real-estate bubble bursting, the overnight collapse of financial institutions considered too big to fail or the defeat of a financial rescue package. Like doctors in the Amazon -- who don't have all the tools, never know what the ambulance will bring and treat the patient anyway -- Latin Americans have learned to react fast to unimaginable, unforeseen occurrences... Likewise, Obama would profit if he backs and carries on President George W. Bush's initiative to invite Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and other leaders of emerging-market economies to join the Group of Seven nations to discuss measures to weather the global financial storm. After his decisive victory on Nov. 4, Obama now has to learn to dance through crisis. Latin Americans can give him useful insights about this new rhythm. It will require creativity, flexibility and spontaneity. The quicker he learns the samba and salsa, the sooner we will all go back to listening to some soothing bossa nova." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aYvV3gyUnGbE&refer=columnist_marinis

Crise chega à Brasil

--"JUST a few months ago, Brazil’s economy was growing at its fastest pace since the mid-1990s, driven by record commodity prices and record credit growth. The country’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, declared confidently that “Bush’s crisis” in the United States would not affect Brazil. It all looks very different now. Credit is becoming scarcer and banks more suspicious of each other..." -- http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12562273

Política cambial

SÃO PAULO - (Valor) -- "O Banco Central (BC) já injetou cerca de US$ 40 bilhões para irrigar o mercado de câmbio e, principalmente, o financiamento ao comércio exterior. As vendas no mercado à vista somaram até ontem US$ 5,1 bilhões em recursos das reservas internacionais..." http://www.valoronline.com.br/ValorOnLine/MateriaCompleta.aspx?tit=BC+já+injetou+cerca+de+US$+40+bilhões+no+mercado&codmateria=5251243&dtmateria=06+11+2008&codcategoria=10&tp=766239954

Política fiscal

"Em menos de dez anos a carga tributária deixou o patamar de 25% da renda nacional, no qual havia se mantido por mais de duas décadas, e se aproxima da marca de 36%." - Gustavo Patu, em "A Escalada da Carga Tributária" Leia mais: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/publifolha/ult10037u432272.shtml

Video Lectures

1,468 visitas ¿Quién protege al consumidor? Milton Friedman 1979 3,883 visitas ¿Qué está mal en nuestras escuelas? Milton Friedman 1979 3,733 visitas La tiranía del control Milton Friedman 1979 4,300 visitas Anatomía de la crisis Milton Friedman 1979 3,213 visitas Adam Smith y la riqueza de las naciones Liberty Fund 1978

Video lectures de Milton Friedman

2,595 visitas Creados iguales Milton Friedman 1979 8,819 visitas El poder del mercado Milton Friedman 1979 5,695 visitas ¿Cómo curar la inflación? Milton Friedman 1979 3,847 visitas ¿Cómo permanecer libres? Milton Friedman 1979 4,766 visitas De la cuna a la tumba Milton Friedman 1979

"Yo, lápiz"

"Yo, lápiz". Milton Friedman sobre a divisão de trabalho, sobre a economia como processo cooperativo: http://www.newmedia.ufm.edu/gsm/index.php?title=Yo_l%C3%A1piz

Se precisa nova teoria econômica

Edmund Phelps, director of the Center on Capitalism and Society, Columbia University, who won the 2006 Nobel Prize for economics, writes: "What theory can we use to get us out of the impending slump quickly and reliably? To use the “new classical” theory of fluctuations begun at Chicago in the 1970s – the theory in which the “risk management” models are embedded – is unthinkable, since it is precisely the theory falsified by the asset price collapse. The thoughts of some have turned to John Maynard Keynes. His insights into uncertainty and speculation were deep. Yet his employment theory was problematic and the “Keynesian” policy solutions are questionable at best... At the end of his life Keynes wrote of “modernist stuff, gone wrong and turned sour and silly”. He told his friend Friedrich Hayek he intended to re-examine his theory in his next book. He would have moved on. The admiration we all have for Keynes’s fabulous contributions should not sway us from moving on. Lea mais: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/00a01b2e-aa87-11dd-897c-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

Especulação errada

"... A Embraer anunciou na noite de ontem que teve prejuízo de R$ 48,4 milhões no terceiro trimestre de 2008, contra lucro de R$ 306 milhões no mesmo período do ano passado e de R$ 176,3 milhões no segundo trimestre...." http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u463808.shtml

Especulação errada

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Aracruz Celulose SA, the world's biggest eucalyptus-pulp maker, reached an agreement with banks to unwind 97 percent of its wrong-way currency derivatives, leading to a loss of $2.13 billion. Banks will negotiate terms to restructure the debts stemming from the derivatives contracts by Nov. 30, Aracruz said today in a statement to Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios, Brazil's securities regulator. Aracruz didn't disclose which banks are part of the agreement..."-- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=asALFmUXJaPI&refer=news http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u463825.shtml

Argentina repatria investimentos

-- "O governo argentino fixou nesta segunda-feira um prazo de três dias para que os fundos privados de pensões repatriem investimentos milionários em outros países do Mercosul, a maior parte no Brasil. A medida tem o objetivo de estimular e financiar projetos na Argentina, frente à escassez de financiamento originado pela crise internacional. O vice-presidente da Comissão Nacional de Valores (CNV), Alejandro Vanoli, explicou que "basicamente são ações do Brasil" as que deverão ser repatriadas pelas Administradoras de Fundos de Aposentadorias e Pensões (AFJP). O prazo para repatriar esses investimentos foi fixado hoje em uma resolução do "Diário Oficial" do Estado. Vanoli detalhou que se trata de cerca de US$ 600 milhões (R$ 1,3 bilhão) que as AFJP tinham em ativos do Mercosul, bloco formado por Argentina, Brasil, Paraguai e Uruguai e que tem a Venezuela em processo de adesão..." http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u463565.shtml