Economia Internacional

Economia Internacional - Revisão para prova Teoria da Política Comercial O papel das tarifas Custos e benefícios Outras Formas de Proteção: Quotas, controles cambiais, proibição de importação, monopólio estatal, leis de compras de produtos nacionais, depósitos prévio à importação, acordos voluntários de restrição às exportações, e, especificamente, tipos de barreiras não-tarifárias (como regulamentos sanitários e de saúde, normas técnicas, padrões de segurança, dificuldades relativas à documentação, inspeção, critérios culturais, ...) Modelo: Custos e benefícios da tarifa O consumidor perde excedente O produtor ganha excedente O governo ganha receita A perda de excedente do consumidor é mais de que a ganha em excedente do produtor e da receita do Governo Isto significa de que tarifas constituem uma forma de redistribuição em favor dos produtores em detrimento dos consumidores. A moderna teoria da escolha pública explica que isto é o resultado de que os interesses específicos estão mais fortemente seguidos no processo político de que os interesses gerais. A diferença entre custos e benefícios do protecionismo entre um país grande e um país pequeno: se um país grande impõe tarifas sobre a importação de um bem, os exportadores de este bem sofrem custos quando os beneficio se distribuem para todos outros países importadores deste bem. Política Comercial na Prática Instituições OMC – objetivos Entre as novas instituições surgem FMI, BIRD e o GATT (desde 1995 WTO – OMC) dedicado ao livre comércio. Funções do OMC: servir como corte para resolver disputas comerciais ao lado de Gerenciar os acordos multilaterais de comércio Administrar o entendimento sobre soluções Servir de fórum para as negociações Supervisionar as políticas comerciais Cooperar com outras organizações internacionais - Proteção à Indústria Nascente (Friedrich List) Exemplos: Estados Unidos e Alemanha Protecionismo com integração econômica de livre comércio Comparação entre o modelo de Friedrich List (Protecionismo com Integração) e o modelo de Raúl Prebisch (Substituição de Importações) Diferença entre o modelo adotado por Alemanha/Estados Unidos/União Européia e o modelo “desenvolvimentista” do CEPAL na América Latina A crise do período 1914-1945: “Políticas de Empobrecimento do Vizinho” – 30 anos de protecionismo na Europa e o resto do mundo. Balanço de Pagamentos Conceitos básicos Análise econômica do balanço de pagamentos Análise microeconômica: D, O, P, M (demanda, oferta, preço, mercado) Análise macroeconômica: C, I, G, NX, CF, R, S, TA, i, e, ... (consumo, investimentos, gastos do governo, exportações liquidas EX-IM, Reservas, mudança das reservas, poupança, impostos, taxa de juros nacionais e internacionais, taxa de câmbio ...) BP = Conta corrente (bens, serviços, renda e transferência unilaterais) + Fluxos de Capitais + Erros e Omissões + Variação das reservas internacionais Em forma reduzida para facilitar análise econômica: BP = NX + CF + ΔR = 0 Com NX = EX – IM CF = CIM – CEX ΔR: débito (!) se as reservas internacionais (R) aumentam, e crédito se as reservas internacionais baixam Nota: Com Δ R seja zero Segue BP = NX + CF = O Assim - NX = CF NX = - CF Para manter as reservas, as duas contas (NX e CF) precisam se balançar Análise macroeconômica do balanço de pagamentos: Y = C + I + G + EX – IM Y = C + SPR + TA I + G + NX = SPR + TA (EX – IM) = (SPR – IPR) + (TA – G) EX – IM : setor externo SPR – IPR: setor privado TA – G: setor público Condição do equilíbrio Economia fechada sem governo Y = C + I Y = C + S I = S Economia aberta com governo Com SPR (poupança privada) e TA – G (popança governamental) = poupança nacional S = SPR + SGOV SGOV = TA – G S = I + NX NX = S – I (EX – IM) = (S – I) Modelo do Programa do FMI EX (e) – IM (e, Y) = S (Y) – I (i) + TA – G BP = NX (e, Y) + CF (i, i*) Desvalorizar a moeda (e), aumentar a taxa de juros (i), baixar os gastos governamentais (G) Conceitos de aprender e entender: Tarifas, excedente do consumidor, excedente do produtor, país pequeno, país grande, quotas, depósito prévio à importação, barreiras não-tarifárias, acordos voluntários de restrição às exportações (AVRE), GATT, WTO, OMC, indústria nascente, List, Prebisch, substituição de importações, CEPAL, Cepalismo, desenvolvimentismo, política de empobrecimento do vizinho, termos de troca, países periféricos, balanço de pagamentos, transações correntes, balanço comercial de bens, balanço comercial de serviços, balanço as rendas, transferências unilaterais correntes, conta capital e financeira, reservas internacionais, ....

Provas Economia Internacional e Macro 3

Para prova II em Economia Internacional: Carvalho/Silva Cap. 4, 5, 6 (veja link para "revisão abaixo) Para prova II em Macro 3: Blanchard Cap. 13, 22, 23 Proposta para Prova II em Economia Internacional: 13 de Maio Proposta para Prova II em Macro 3: 21 de Maio Hoje nossa aula em Economia Internacional vai ter lugar na sala 110 Did 3

Novo libro sobre a Grande Depressão

The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal. By Robert P. Murphy. Regnery, 2009. 199 pages. Robert Murphy demonstrates in this excellent book a penetrating ability to explain the essence of fallacious economic doctrines. As he notes, three theories offer competing explanations of the Great Depression: the Keynesian account, which stresses a lack of aggregate demand; Milton Friedman's monetarism, which ascribes the severity of the early years of the Depression to a drastic cut in the money supply by the Fed; and, of course, the Austrian theory that Murphy himself favors... Leia mais: http://www.lewrockwell.com/gordon/gordon61.html

Macro - Equações básicas

Equações básicas para estudar inflação e crises e depressões econômicas: M x V = Q x P = Y Q = f (K, AN) (M x V)/P = Q = QC(Y,i) + QI(i) + QG + QEX(e) – QIM(e,Y) P = (1 + μ) W/A W = Ae Pe F (u, z) M = MB x m π = (p x q) – (wL + rK)

Economia Internacional: Podcasts

Análise Econômica do Balanço de Pagamentos Política Comercial

Progresso tecnológico

Veja como o processo da "destruição criativa" (Schumpeter) transforma a economia, as empresas e o emprego: http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/CreativeDestruction.html

Soros: a crise continua

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Renowned investor George Soros said on Friday the world financial system has effectively disintegrated, adding that there is yet no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis. Soros said the turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union. He said the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September marked a turning point in the functioning of the market system. "We witnessed the collapse of the financial system," Soros said at a Columbia University dinner. "It was placed on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom." -- http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSTRE51K0A920090221 Para traduzier copie o texto o use a janela em google translate: http://translate.google.com/

Prognosticando a chegada de uma "depressão hiperinflacionária"

JOHN WILLIAMS: HYPERINFLATIONARY DEPRESSION AHEAD Wednesday, 29 April 2009 Howard Ruff interviews John Williams of Shadow Statistics blog John Williams publishes the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter (www.shadowstats.com). He is an amazing professional economist with a great grasp of the real economy. He and I have arrived at the same conclusions about almost everything in the economy, despite the fact that we approach it from totally different directions: me from the fundamentals, and he from a real technical and numbers point of view. I am now in John’s home in Oakland, California, looking past the government numbers to get his views on the world as it really is. Shadow Government Statistics reconstructs published government statistics the accurate way we used to do it that reflects reality, rather than the way these numbers are now manipulated, and comes up with different conclusions about the economy, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and other revealing areas published by government. I trust John’s numbers because the government has been manipulating and restating these numbers for purely political purposes. HJR: John is it necessary to recreate government statistics to show what you feel is reality, and how have you recreated them? I’d like some examples. JW: Howard, I’ve been a consulting economist for about 27 years. I found early on that to make meaningful forecasts I had to have accurate information. It was evident early on that there were big inaccuracies in government reporting I surveyed at a convention of the National Association of Business Economists. Some economists have to make real-world forecasts, as opposed to economists who are employed by Wall Street to come to up with happy stories to encourage people to buy stocks and bonds. I asked them what they considered the quality of government statistics to be. Most thought the numbers were very poor quality. Political manipulation tends to increase in election years. I talked to the chief economist for a large retail chain, and he told me that the retail sales reports were absolutely no good, but he thought the money-supply numbers were pretty good. Next was an economist for a major bank. He said the money-supply numbers were not very good, but he thought the retail-sales numbers are pretty good. The more someone knew about a given statistic, the greater the problems there were with the numbers. Over time public perceptions increasingly varied from what the government was reporting because government kept changing methodologies, and usually tended to build an upside bias to the economic statistics of unemployment or the GDP – the broad measure of economies – and a downside bias in the Consumer Price Index, a popular measure of inflation. When it became popularly used in auto-union contracts after WWII, the concept of the Consumer Price Index was fairly simple. But they wanted to measure changes in the cost of living, and they needed to maintain a constant standard of living. That was the traditional definition; the way the CPI had been designed. That held pretty much in place until we got into the 1990s when Alan Greenspan and Michael Boskin, the head of The Council of Economic Advisors for the first Bush Administration, started talking about how the CPI really overstated inflation. The rationale was that when steak goes up in price, people buy more hamburger instead of steak; therefore you should reflect the substitution in the CPI. That is not the concept of a constant standard of living; it is the concept of a declining standard of living that has no value to anyone other than politicians in Washington. They succeeded in reducing the reported level of inflation, which reduced cost-of-living adjustments in Social Security checks. Because of the changes in the 1990s, our Social Security checks are about half what they should be! There have been different definitions over time. The government itself publishes six levels of unemployment from what they call “U-1” through “U-6.” The popularly followed measure is called “U-3.” Right now they say it is around 8.6 percent. The broadest measure published by the government deletes “the discouraged workers” and people who are marginally attached to the economy. This is close to 16 percent. The key there is the “discouraged workers,” people who consider themselves to be unemployed. They know whether or not they have jobs. The Discouraged Worker hasn’t been out looking for work because there are no jobs to be had in his area. Up until 1994, those discouraged workers wouldn’t have to specify how long they had been discouraged. After that, if they were discouraged, the government wouldn’t add them. I add them into my numbers, and it totals around 20 percent unemployment. The popular number for the Great Depression is 25 percent unemployment rate and 34 percent among non-farm workers. We are mostly a non-farm economy. HJR: During the Bush Administration, we heard all the happy talk about how well the economy was doing because of the cuts in tax rates. Is that really just happy talk or was the economy really doing well under Bush? JW: We actually had a pretty bad recession in the early’90s, longer and deeper than popularly reported. Near the end of Bush’s first term at the time of the re-election race, a senior Commerce Department officer talked with a senior executive in the computer industry and asked him to boost the reporting of computer sales to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which prepares the GDP report. They did; it boosted the GDP, the broad measure of the economy, and George Bush touted the strong economy. But some felt he was out of touch with reality. The average guy has a pretty good sense of reality and knows whether or not economic conditions are good, or if inflation is up or down, which is why people have a difficult time accepting the government’s numbers. They have gotten so far away from common experience that people just don’t find them credible. In terms of the GDP, clearly retail sales and industrial production were showing us a deepening recession long before the government reported it with the GDP. In fact, you didn’t show a contraction in the GDP until the second quarter of 2008. Officially the recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, started back in December, 2007. If the GDP numbers accurately reflected what was happening, it would have at least shown the contraction two or three quarters before that. Other indications show that the recession really began in late 2006. HJR: Let me get to a practical issue. What kind of economic activity should we support? For example, the conservatives will say we should cut tax rates to boost the economy. What does your research show? JW: Cutting taxes is always a good idea. The private sector can do more with the money than the government can. Right now we are in a deep and deepening recession which will probably be called “a depression” before it ends. By depression, I mean a ten-percent contraction in overall economic activity. When the government is reasonably solid, it can cut taxes. It can even increase spending without disrupting the system. Right now we have a system where with the money poured into the banking system, and the “stimulus” by way of spending and tax cuts, is on top of record deficits. If you look at the real numbers on the deficits, based on numbers published by the federal government, we really should look at it how it used to be. In the late ‘70s, the ten biggest accounting firms and congress said they could design an accounting system where the government will report its books the same way a company does. They finally got that into effect in 2000. Since then, instead of running deficits in the range of a couple of billion dollars, on a Generally Accepted Accounting Principal (GAAP) basis, the deficit has averaged $4 trillion a year. It was over $5 trillion in 2008 and will top $8 trillion this year. This is unsustainable! You could not raise taxes enough to bring that into balance. If you wanted to bring it into balance, you’d have to eliminate Social Security and Medicare payments. It can’t be done. HJR: Right now, Obama is spending money – I won’t say like a drunken sailor, because a drunken sailor spends his own money – but he is throwing trillions of dollars at the economic downturn, assuming it will stimulate us out. My personal opinion is that they are only stimulating government growth, and some day the average person may get a job, but his employer will be Uncle Sam. What is the end result of creating all this money and throwing it at the problem? JW: It will not stimulate the economy. The cost of all this is inflation. We will see inflation levels not seen in our lifetime by as early as the end of this year. Eventually we will see liabilities of $65 trillion – more than four times U.S. GDP, more than global GDP. There will be a hyper inflation where the dollar becomes worthless, where the paper is worth more as wall paper than as currency. HJR: They couldn’t even use the money as toilet paper because it is a bad absorber of water. So we will have hyper-inflation. How can we protect the value of our assets, assuming that people have some discretionary money? Should they buy growth stocks because they are cheap, assuming “buy low, sell high?” Or are there better alternatives? JW: We are headed into a hyper-inflationary depression that will become a Great Depression. When hyper inflation hits, it will disrupt the normal flow of commerce and turn it into a Great Depression. What about paper assets based on the dollar? You want to get into something like gold or silver –physical gold or silver, not paper. Perhaps get some assets outside the dollar. It’s a time to preserve your wealth and assets, not to start speculating on the stock market. There is a lot of volatility ahead. Over the long term, gold and silver are your best hedges. HJR: That sounds like the familiar tune I’ve been singing for several years. I’ve been publishing for 33 years. About 11 of those years I have been bullish on gold and silver as investments. When I abandoned gold in the early ‘80s, I was excommunicated from the gold-bug church because I was supposed to stay faithful to gold, but then the metals weren’t the right place to put your money. As a financial adviser, if I don’t have subscribers in the right investments, they will lose money and not renew their subscription to The Ruff Times. So I have a financial interest in being right. Yogi Berra said, “It’s déjà vu all over again.” the same thing is happening that I saw in the ‘70s that drove the prices of gold and silver to unprecedented highs – only more so now. They are creating more money than they ever thought of creating back then. We are using words like “trillions,” which we never used before. I’m not just looking at it as an investment and a place to make money. I am looking at it as a possible way to preserve the real value of your assets so you are not left destitute with a pile of worthless paper. You showed me a display of Zimbabwe currency, where multi-billion dollar notes started out as $2-bill notes. We could face the same thing. The world is littered with worthless dead-paper currencies with an average life span of about 75 years. It’s always the same: we make too much of it ever since we created paper currency with the printing press, and creating too much of it to buy votes, diminishing its value. A subscriber who wrote to me recently asking me that if the government and the bankers can manipulate the price of gold and silver, so couldn’t they do that for many years and gold and silver would go nowhere? History doesn’t record a single example when a society inflated the dominant currency even near the quantities we are creating dollars now without destroying its value. Gold and silver, not being anyone’s debt or obligation, is where people ought to put their money. I have been watching your work now for more than two years. I am amazed that you and I have arrived at the same conclusions from different sides of the street. I’ve learned a lot from your view of the numbers, and I’m a fundamentalist. One reason I like you is because you agree with me. We like people who agree with us. Thanks so much for sharing your time and expertise with us. JW: Thank you very much, Howard. I greatly appreciate the interview. I also appreciate your work. Indeed, we are in very broad and general agreement on where things are headed here. I have followed your work for many years; in fact, your writings back in the 1970s were part of my education as to the nature of the real world. Again, thank you, sir! Last Updated ( Wednesday, 29 April 2009 http://carolynbaker.net/site/content/view/1075/1/

As melhoras cidades do mundo para morar

"In Mercer Consultings annual Quality of Living Survey, Europe once again dominates the list of 215 countries around the world. The top three cities are, by rank, Vienna, Zurich (last years winner), and Geneva. Commonwealth nations fare pretty well, too, winning 9 of the top 30 spots—even though London comes in only at 38. The U.S. also fares poorly, barely making it into the top 30 with Honolulu and San Francisco in the bottom two places. The top city in Asia is Singapore, at no. 26. No cities from Africa or South America are in the top 30. The bottom? Baghdad once again comes in at 215..." Leia mais: http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/04/0428_best_places_to_live/1.htm

Aula Economia Internacional 4a cancelada

Por causa de uma renunião departamental com prioridade não vai ter aula na Quarta, 29 de Abril na disciplina Economia Internacional. Como compensação, se precisa prepara o próximo tema da disciplina: Balanço de Pagamento. O texto já está na pasta no DID I. Quando aprender, procure entender os conceitos (como conta corrente, conta capital, etc.) e as tecnicas de contabilidade do BP.

Progresso tecnologico

Como aprendemos, o cescimento econômico, aumento da renda por capita, depende da taxa do progresso tecnologico. Porèm, não é fácil obter progresso tecnológico: "... 99.8% fail. Only 3,000 patents out of 1.5 million patents are commercially viable. “In truth, odds are stacked astronomically against inventors, and no marketing outfit can change them. ‘There are around 1.5 million patents in effect and in force in this country, and of those, maybe 3,000 are commercially viable,’ [Richard Maulsby, director of the Office of Public Affairs for the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office], says. ‘It's a very small percentage of patents that actually turn into products that make money for people. On top of all that, to get ripped off for tens of thousands of dollars adds insult to injury.” Patent success rates. Patent odds of success. Percent of patents commercialized. (Richard Maulsby, director of public affairs for the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office, quoted in Karen E. Klein, Smart Answers, “Avoiding the Inventor's Lament,” Business Week, November 10, 2005) Order the Official Gazette of the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office on CD ROM...." -- Leia mais:http://www.inventionstatistics.com/Innovation_Risk_Taking_Inventors.html

Podcasts

Novos podcasts: Determinantes macroeconômicas do crescimento econômico Adam Smith: Economia e Sociedade Karl Marx: Economia e Sociedade Corrupção, comportamento eleitoral e desenvolimento econômico

Prova Macro III

Prof. Dr. Antony Mueller Prova 1 Macro III – 23 de Abril 2009 NOME: ..................................................... 1. Define poupança (S) usando as variáveis S, I, s, K, Y S = .................................... 2. Interprete a seguinte equação com um mínimo de palavras Kt+1 – Kt = sYt – δKt .............................................................................................................................. 3. O produto por trabalhador efetivo aumenta/baixa com o aumento do capital por trabalhador com uma taxa a) crescente b) constante c) decrescente 4. A formula xY = f (xN, xK) significa retornos de escala a) constantes b) crescentes c) decrescentes d) elípticos 5. O montante de investimento por trabalhador efetivo necessário para manter um nível constante de capital por trabalhador efetivo e dado por: a) (δ + gA + gN)(K/AN) b) I + S = Y c) Y = C + I + G d) Y = C + I + G + EX – IM e) I = S f) (A + N) = δK g) (δ + gK + gN)(Y/AN) 6. Seguinte da teoria macroeconômica de crescimento econômico é possível que um país pobre torna-se rico? a) Sim, porque tem retornos de capital crescentes b) Sim, porque se pode importar e imitar a tecnologia avançada c) Sim, se os pobres trabalham mais d) Não, porque um país pobre está na armadilha de pobreza para sempre e) Não, porque os países ricos não deixam os países pobres crescer 7. Desenhe a função do produto por trabalhador efetivo (Y/AN) versus o capital por trabalhador efetivo (K/AN) e designe com os símbolos corretos os eixos e a reta: 8. Relacione as taxas de crescimentos (produto por capita) com os períodos Período Taxas de crescimento anual (%) 1. 1500-1700 (Europa) a) 10 b) 5 c)1,5 d) 0,5 e) 0,2 f) 0,1 2. 1700-1820 (Europa) a) 10 b) 5 c)1,5 d) 0,5 e) 0,2 f) 0,1 3. 1820-1950 (EUA) a) 10 b) 5 c)1,5 d) 0,5 e) 0,2 f) 0,1 9. No estado de crescimento equilibrado, o crescimento da renda por capita (Y/N) depende de a) Mais consumidores b) Mais trabalhadores c) Progresso tecnológico d) Mais capital e) Mais dinheiro f) Mais trabalho por capita 10. Complete em (.........) o “circulo de riqueza”: 11. A instituição mais importante para fomentar o crescimento econômico é ...................................................................................................................

Armadilhas em interpretar estadísticas

Porque muitos medicos, journalistas e políticos não saben interpretar correctamente as estadísticas de saúde e fazem falsas conclusões: "SUMMARY Many doctors, patients, journalists, and politicians alike do not understand what health statistics mean or draw wrong conclusions without noticing. Collective statistical illiteracy refers to the widespread inability to understand the meaning of numbers. For instance, many citizens are unaware that higher survival rates with cancer screening do not imply longer life, or that the statement that mammography screening reduces the risk of dying from breast cancer by 25% in fact means that 1 less woman out of 1,000 will die of the disease. We provide evidence that statistical illiteracy (a) is common to patients, journalists, and physicians; (b) is created by nontransparent framing of information that is sometimes an unintentional result of lack of understanding but can also be a result of intentional efforts to manipulate or persuade people; and (c) can have serious consequences for health..." Leia mais: http://www.psychologicalscience.org/journals/pspi/pspi_8_2_article.pdf

Crescimento econômico

Este filme de desenho animado explica a relação entre poupança, investimentos, capital e crescimento econômico: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFxvy9XyUtg&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Elewrockwell%2Ecom%2Fblog%2F&feature=player_embedded O filme está baseado nesta palestra do meu amigo Hans Hoppe: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyeF7H3tHFw

Próximas aulas Macro e Economia Internacional

Por causa do feriado, a próxima aula em Macroeconomia na semana que vem vai ter lugar na quinta, dia 23 de Abril quando temos a prova. A próxima aula em Economia Internacional vai ter lugar na quarta, dia 22 de Abril. Vamos recuperar a aula do dia 20 no fim de semestre. Tarefa para Economia Internacional: Estudar o capítulo 4 e formular perguntas. Na próxima aula começamos o capítulo 5 (Política comerical na prática). A maior importância ten as partes: "Proteção à indústria nascente" "Políticas de empobrecimento do vizinho" "Raúl Prebisch e o processo de substituição de importações"

Macro III. Prova do 23 de Abril

Nas preparações para a prova, procure entender o que significam os seguintes equações: I = S + (T-G) I = S It = sYt I = Δ K I = S = sY = Δ K Y = f(K, N) xY = f (xK, xN) Y/N = F (K/N, N/N) = F (K/N, 1) = F (K/N) Kt+1 = (1 – δ) Kt + It (Kt+1/N) – (Kt/N) = s f(Kt/N) – δ (Kt/N) s f(K*/N) = δ (K*/N) Y*/N = s/δ Y/AN = f (K/AN) I/AN = s (Y/AN) I/AN = s f (K/AN) δK + (gA + gN) K Investimento necessário: (δ + gA + gN) (K/AN) A taxa de crescimento de Y/N é igual a taxa de crescimento de Y menos a taxa de crescimento de N. Logo: A taxa de crescimento de Y/N é (gY – gN) = (gA + gN) – gN = gA O produto (Y) cresce à taxa (gA + gN), o número de trabalhadores cresce à taxa gN, e o produto por trabalhador cresce à taxa gA. Quando a economia está no estado de crescimento equilibrado, o produto por trabalhador cresce à taxa do progresso tecnológico.

Prorogação da prova em Macro III

Decidimos prorogar a prova seguinte os pedidos dos participantes. Em vez de ter lugar o dia 16 de Abril, a prova vai ter lugar o dia 23 de Abril.

Macro III: Recursos para prova de 16 de Abril

Para a preparação da prova, veja e estude as postagens dos dias 14 de Abril abaixo conjunto com as postagens mais antigas do 8 e 7 de Abril e do 31 de Março 2009.

Macro III: Acumulação de capital versus progresso tecnológico

Macro III: Efeitos de um aumento da taxa de poupança

Macro III: Efeitos da taxa de poupança

Macro III: Dinâmica do capital e do produto

Entende as cracterísticas do crescimento equilibrado:

O capital por trabalhador efetivo (TE) e o produto por TE são constantes.

O capital pro trabalhador e o produto por trabalhador crescem à taxa de progresso tecnológico gA.

O trabalho cresce à taxa de crescimento populacional gN.

O capital e o produto crescem a uma taxa igual à soma do crescimento populacional e da taxa de progresso tecnológico (gA + gN).

China reduz a compra da dívida Americana

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/13/business/global/13yuan.html?_r=2&ref=WRH

China perto de $ 2 trilhões em reservas

BEIJING (AP) -- China's central bank said Saturday that its foreign exchange reserves rose 16 percent year-on-year to $1.9537 trillion by the end of March. China's reserves, already the world's largest, increased by $7.7 billion in the first quarter -- $146.2 billion less than the same period last year, the People's Bank of China said in a notice on its Web site. That rise was substantially less than the fourth quarter increase of almost $45 billion, according to China's official Xinhua News Agency, showing the impact of slowing exports due to the financial crisis. In March, the reserves increased by $41.7 billion, it said, $6.7 billion more than the same period last year. Analysts believe China holds up to 70 percent of its foreign reserves in U.S. dollar-denominated assets, including Treasury securities...-- http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-foreign-exchange-apf-14904107.html

Macro III Prova 1

A primeira prova em Análise Macroeconômica é avisada acontecer o 16 de Abril. O tema é o crescimento econômico. A literatura básica é o livro de texto "Macroeconomia" de Olivier Blanchard, os capítulos 10, 11 e 12. Procure aprender interpretar os modelos em seu significativo econômico. Encontre abaixo (pastagem do 7 de Abril) o modelo gráfico básico e uma lista com as fórmulas fundamentais para a sua orientação.

Como confrontar a crise

Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world By Nassim Nicholas Taleb Published: April 7 2009 20:02 Last updated: April 7 2009 20:02 1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest. 2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism. In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal. 3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean. 4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards. 5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. Complexity from globalisation and highly networked economic life needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products. The complex economy is already a form of leverage: the leverage of efficiency. Such systems survive thanks to slack and redundancy; adding debt produces wild and dangerous gyrations and leaves no room for error. Capitalism cannot avoid fads and bubbles: equity bubbles (as in 2000) have proved to be mild; debt bubbles are vicious. 6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning . Complex derivatives need to be banned because nobody understands them and few are rational enough to know it. Citizens must be protected from themselves, from bankers selling them “hedging” products, and from gullible regulators who listen to economic theorists. 7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Cascading rumours are a product of complex systems. Governments cannot stop the rumours. Simply, we need to be in a position to shrug off rumours, be robust in the face of them. 8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial. The debt crisis is not a temporary problem, it is a structural one. We need rehab. 9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. Economic life should be definancialised. We should learn not to use markets as storehouses of value: they do not harbour the certainties that normal citizens require. Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control). 10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. Finally, this crisis cannot be fixed with makeshift repairs, no more than a boat with a rotten hull can be fixed with ad-hoc patches. We need to rebuild the hull with new (stronger) materials; we will have to remake the system before it does so itself. Let us move voluntarily into Capitalism 2.0 by helping what needs to be broken break on its own, converting debt into equity, marginalising the economics and business school establishments, shutting down the “Nobel” in economics, banning leveraged buyouts, putting bankers where they belong, clawing back the bonuses of those who got us here, and teaching people to navigate a world with fewer certainties. Then we will see an economic life closer to our biological environment: smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage. A world in which entrepreneurs, not bankers, take the risks and companies are born and die every day without making the news. In other words, a place more resistant to black swans. The writer is a veteran trader, a distinguished professor at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5d5aa24e-23a4-11de-996a-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss A dimensão da crise vista do banco central Americano: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20090406a.htm

Macro III: Modelo básico de crescimento econômico

O nível de investimento por trabalhador efetivo necessário para manter um dado nível de capital por trabalhador efetivo é representado pela reta positivamente inclinada com uma declividade da reta igual a d + gA + gN.

Macro III: fórmulas básicas de crescimento econômico

O estoque de capital no início do ano t+1 é igual ao estoque de capital no início do ano t adjustado pela depreciação, somado ao investimento duranto o ano t, que, em sua vez, é igual à taxa de poupança multiplicada pelo produto (ou em termos por trabalhador N). -

A mudança no capital do ano t para o ano t+1 é igual ao investimento duranto o ano t menos a depreciação durante o ano t. -

O produto por trabalhador no estado de crescimento equilibrado é igual à razão entre a taxa de poupança e a taxa de depreciação. -

O nível de capital da regra ouro é o nível de capital assoicado ao valor da taxa de poupança que produz o maior nível de consumo no estado de crscimento equilbrado. -

O nível de investimento necessário para manter um dado nível de capital por trabalhador efetivo. -

"Supernovo" - Artigo sobre ciclo de negocios

Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman’s Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations Tara M. Sinclair1 Department of Economics And the Elliott School of International Affairs The George Washington University Washington, DC 20052 tsinc@gwu.edu THIS DRAFT September 14, 2008 JEL Classifications: C22, E32 Keywords: Asymmetry, Unobserved Components, Markov-Switching, Business Cycles Abstract Recent research has shown that unobserved components (UC) models can, under certain conditions, be estimated without imposing the common zero-correlation restriction between the permanent and transitory innovations. Estimates applying this model to US real GDP suggest that US output experiences considerable permanent movements. This result is in stark contrast to the findings based on estimates of zero-correlation models which suggest that fluctuations in output are primarily transitory. If the transitory component of US real GDP is asymmetric, particularly during recessions, then the linear UC model may over-emphasize permanent movements due to the dominance of expansions in the data. This paper produces and estimates an unobserved components model that allows for asymmetric transitory movements and for correlation between all the innovations. The asymmetry is modeled using Markov-switching in the transitory component, in the spirit of Kim and Nelson’s (1999) version of Friedman’s plucking model. The findings suggest that both permanent movements and asymmetric transitory shocks are important for explaining post-war output fluctuations in the U.S. Leia mais

Blanchard

Assiste a entrevista com Olivier Blanchard sobre a política econômica atual e a política de estímulos: http://audiovideo.economist.com/?fr_story=b12e1e4b110ce3cdaded5edea993cc59b5f1b233&rf=bm&source=hptextfeature

Novos podcasts Macro e Economia Internacional

Novas Podcasts de Prof. Antony Mueller Macroeconomia III e Economia Internacional 1. semestre 2009 Economia Internacional: Modelos e Teorias do Comércio Internacional Macroeconomia: Crescimento Econômico - Introdução Crescimento Econômico no seu contexto macroeconômico Macroeconomia. Origens de crises econômicas e financeiras Modelos básicos da macroeconomia Macroeconomia: Modelos principais Macroeconomia: Crescimento Econômico Revisão I Se o podcast não abre, procure aqui: http://continentaleconomics.com/AudioLectures.html

Dez países - dez "soluções" da crise

Um panorama da reação de dez países (incluindo o Brasil) enfrente da crise financeira. Os desafios e os instrumentos e as medidas aplicados: http://finance.yahoo.com/loans/article/106826/10-Countries-10-Solutions

Links de artigos que examinam a contribuição de modelos estadísticos quantitativos de modelar risco e incerteza para a emergência da crise atual: A dash of this integer and a dab of that regression March 30, 2009 11:11 PM by Tim Swanson Wondering about the various mathematical formulas that were used by various Wall Street firms in quantifying risk? Here are several pieces that discuss the role quants played in modeling risk and uncertainty: - My Manhattan Project by Michael Osinksi (NY Mag) - Recipe for Disaster by Felix Simon (Wired) - How Wall Street Lied to Its Computers by Saul Hansell (NY Times) In addition you may enjoy two relatively recent pieces by Michael Lewis, The End of Wall Street's Boom and Wall Street on the Tundra Leia como a Universidade Harvard perdeu bilhões do seu fundo de investimentos: “I’m not trying to pretend I’m omniscient or anything, but a lot of people who were quantitative traders, in the back of our minds, we knew a lot of these models were just that: guestimates,” Mack says..." http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=527380

Economia Internacional: Prova

1. Prova em Economia Internacional Dia: 6 de Abril 17 horas Tema: Os modelos e teorias de comércio internacional 1. Mercantilismo 2. Vantagens absolutas 3. Vantagens relativas 4. Heckscher-Ohlin (dotação relativa de fatores de produção) 5. Nova teoria de comércio (incluindo ciclo de produto) 10 perguntas - respostas na forma de marcar a resposta certa, preencher, sublinhar 5 perguntas fáceis, 3 perguntas média, 2 perguntas um pouco mais difícil Como estudar: menos de "decorar", procure mais de entender o modelo e aprende o que significam os conceitos (por exemplo: "preços relativos", "custos de oportunidade", "relação de troca", etc.). Procure exemplos onde os modelos podem ser aplicados.

Convite

O muro de Rio

No Rio de Janeiro se começa construir um muro entre os bairos dos "ricos" e dos "pobres": Brazil builds walls around Rio de Janeiro slums Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:03pm EDT Brazil builds walls around Rio de Janeiro slums RIO DE JANEIRO, March 28 (Reuters) - The government of Rio de Janeiro is building concrete walls to prevent sprawling slums from spreading farther into the picturesque hills of this world-famous tourist destination, an official said on Saturday.Construction has begun in two favelas, or shantytowns, in the southern districts of Rio de Janeiro, a government spokeswoman told Reuters. One of the two is Morro Dona Marta, which police occupied in November to control crime and violence caused mostly by rival drug gangs.Officials say the wall is to protect the remaining native forest but critics fear the move could be seen as discriminatory and become a blemish symbolizing Brazil's deep divisions between rich and poor... Leia mais: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN28291897

Macro III - Aulas e prova

Temos aula regular na terça as 21 horas Não tem aula a quinta (2. Abril 2009) 1. prova avisada no 16 de Abril

Economia Internacional: Aulas - prova

Tem aula regular a segunda, 20 do Março as 17 horas. Não tem aula a quarta (1. de Abril 2009) Na segunda vamos fazer uma revisão em preparação da prova que vai acontecer no 6 de Abril 2009 com os temas - Mercantilismo - Vantagens absolutas - Vantagens relativas - Heckscher-Ohlin (incl. fatores específicos) - Novas abordagens (incl. ciclo de produto) Orientação para estudar: Você estuda o texto com o objectivo de aplicar o modelo na realidade econômica do comércio internacional. Assim você precisa ser capaz de responder os seguintes perguntas principais: Exemplo: 1. O comércio entre país A e país B no produto M se pode explicar com o modelo X 2. Um bom exemplo para ilustrar o que o modelo X se pode encontrar no comércio entre país A e país B no produto M Exemplos concretos: 1. O comércio de Alemanha com Arábia Saudita - Alemanha exportando carro Mercedes e importando petróleo - se pode explicar bem com o modelo de vantagens absolutas. 2. O comércio de Alemanha com França - Alemanha exportando Volkswagen e importando Renault - se pode explicar bem com o a nova teoria de comércio internacional.

Ultimatum para o dólar

China encontra suporte de Brasil e Rússia para desafiar a posição do dólar como moeda de reserva internacional: "...There's a new power in international finance: Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, the $2 trillion central bank of China. It has the tools and the financial interests to be the new power player on the global financial stage... Zhou--backed by Russia, Brazil and India--wants to break the dollar's hegemony in global finance. In a paper grandly called "Reform the International Monetary System," Zhou has called for the creation of an international currency unit that he admits will require "extraordinary political vision and courage." He suggests that we start with a blend of the dollar, pound, yen and euro--the so-called Special Drawing Rights (SDR) created by the IMF in 1969 ... Zhou's provocative remarks come only days after Premier Wen Jiabao demanded U.S. action to safeguard China's holdings of U.S. bonds--some $740 billion of Treasuries and $600 billion of other debt. "We have lent huge amounts of money to the U.S. [and] we are concerned about the safety of our assets," said Wen. Indeed, China has bought $200 billion of Treasuries while selling agency securities over the past six months. But it also lost about a third of its equity holdings, including $5 billion in the Lehman bankruptcy... Zhou has surprised the experts by suggesting that international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund should manage some nations' currency reserves... This would be a shocking change in a system where central banks maintain control over their reserves and many keep their operations entirely secret and non-transparent. Zhou makes a telling point when he insists that "the centralized management of part of the global reserve by a trustworthy international institution will be more effective in deterring speculation and stabilizing financial markets." In other words, Zhou is saying that the recent vicious meltdown might have been avoided if the world's financial system was not tied solely to the American dollar, the currency at the focal point of the global economy... Leia mais: http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106817/Dollar-Slams-Up-Against-a-Great-Wall

Política econômica brasileira enfrente da crise

Brasil precisa sair da crise sem contar com Washington, diz jornal da BBC Brasil O Brasil não deveria depositar suas esperanças para sair da crise econômica global nos Estados Unidos, de acordo com artigo publicado nesta segunda-feira no jornal americano "The Wall Street Journal" ("WSJ"). A colunista Mary Anastasia O'Grady, que integra o conselho editorial do diário especializado em finanças, disse que o Brasil se tornou uma "potência exportadora" na última década e o presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva é hoje "um dos defensores mais ardentes do livre comércio global", mas as condições do mercado americano não são favoráveis. "Atingido pela queda no preço dos imóveis, o consumidor americano abandonou a compra frenética e começou a economizar. Isto reduziu a demanda e não há muito que o Brasil possa fazer", disse o artigo. O'Grady disse que Lula deveria usar sua posição de força como presidente para "impulsionar uma reforma dos pesados encargos fiscais do Brasil, que prejudicam a criação de empregos, ao invés de colocar suas esperanças na ação do governo dos Estados Unidos para ressuscitar o consumidor"... http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/bbc/ult272u538920.shtml

Economia Internacional - comércio

Da Folha de São Paulo: "... As roupas que os europeus vestem vêm principalmente de países com mão-de-obra barata. De acordo com o Departamento de Estatísticas da União Europeia, Eurostat, o valor total de roupas importadas em 2007 foi de quase 60 bilhões de euros (R$ 181 bilhões), sendo que 38% das mercadorias vieram da China, 15% da Turquia e 8% de Bangladesh. Na Alemanha, 90% das roupas provêm do exterior..." http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dw/ult1908u540951.shtml

Economia Internacional - tarifas

The Economist sobre a nova tendencia de impor tarifas sobre o comércio: "... Governments using tariffs as trade weapons now have to calculate the consequences far more carefully. This is borne out, for example, by Mexico’s response this month to the suspension by America of a NAFTA programme that allowed some Mexican truckers to carry goods north of the border. Mexico raised some tariffs, but by less than NAFTA rules allowed, and chose the goods carefully in order to limit the damage to its own industries. Nevertheless, there is plenty of evidence that developing countries, at least, continue to use tariffs extensively. In the World Bank’s study, tariff increases accounted for half of the protective measures by these countries. Ecuador raised duties on 600 goods. Russia increased them on used cars. India put them up on some kinds of steel. Developing countries have more scope for raising tariffs without breaking WTO rules than richer ones do, because the gap between their applied rates and the ceilings they agreed to is greater than for developed countries. When governments do impose tariffs, vertical supply chains amplify their effects. Because tariffs are typically levied on the gross value crossing the border (with some exceptions, such as exports from Mexican maquiladoras), trade responds more to changes in tariffs—down or up—with global supply chains than without. But there is another, more subtle reason to worry about even small rises in tariffs. Theoretical models that incorporate vertical specialisation find that it takes off only when tariffs fall below a threshold level. Once this happens, however, trade explodes, so that a slight lowering of trade barriers can cause a huge increase in trade. By the same token, if tariffs rose above a certain point—which might be below the maximum agreed on at the WTO—global supply chains would disintegrate. Trade would drop even more steeply than it has in recent months. That said, supply chains need not snap so easily. Even if tariffs go up, other costs that determine the viability of supply chains may go down: the price of oil (and hence the cost of transport) has fallen a long way in the past year. Firms have invested a lot in their supply chains and will be loth to abandon them. And if global supply chains do survive, vertical specialisation could help trade recover speedily when demand returns. Although increased tariffs are a cause for concern, they are far from the only form of protection being used in this crisis. Two-thirds of the trade-restricting measures documented by the World Bank are non-tariff barriers of various kinds. As with tariffs, developing countries are the principal wielders of these weapons. Indonesia has specified that certain categories of goods, such as clothes, shoes and toys, may be imported through only five ports. Argentina has imposed discretionary licensing requirements on car parts, textiles, televisions, toys, shoes and leather goods; licences for all these used to be granted automatically. Some countries have imposed outright import bans, often justified by a tightening of safety rules or by environmental concerns. For example, China has stopped imports of a wide range of European food and drink, including Irish pork, Italian brandy and Spanish dairy products. The Indian government has banned Chinese toys. In addition, anti-dumping is on the increase. The number of anti-dumping cases initiated at the WTO had been declining, but it started to pick up in the second half of 2007. The data for 2008 are not yet complete but Chad Brown, an economist at Brandeis University, estimates that the number was 31% higher than in the previous year. The number of cases ending with extra duties went up by 20%. India was the biggest initiator of anti-dumping action, and America and the European Union imposed duties most frequently. Rich countries’ weapon of choice so far is neither tariffs nor non-tariff barriers to imports. They have been keen users instead of subsidies to troubled domestic industries, particularly carmakers. Some economists, such as Gene Grossman, of Princeton University, cite this as evidence that global sourcing has changed the political economy of protection. The American automotive industry no longer lobbies for direct protection, as it used to, because it imports much of its value-added and competes with foreign firms that assemble their cars in America. Carmakers now prefer explicit subsidies, and the world is replete with examples. Besides America, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Britain, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy and Sweden have all also provided direct or indirect subsidies to carmakers. The World Bank reckons that proposed subsidies for the car industry amount to $48 billion. Nearly 90% of this is in rich countries, where it can easily be slipped into budgetary packages to stimulate demand. The worry about such subsidies is that they could cause production to switch from more efficient plants (eg, in central and eastern Europe) to less efficient ones in rich countries with deep pockets (eg, in western Europe). Whether the location of output is shifting is not yet clear, but politicians plainly hope it will. On March 19th Luc Chatel, the French industry minister, boasted that Renault’s plans to create 400 jobs at a factory near Paris by “repatriating” some production from Slovenia was the result of government aid. Renault has denied this, saying that it was at full capacity in Slovenia..." Leia mais: http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13362027

Economia Internacional: Novos aspectos

The Economist: "... Kei-Mu Yi, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, argues that trade has fallen so fast and so uniformly around the world largely because of the rise of “vertical specialisation”, or global supply chains. This contributed to trade’s rapid expansion in recent decades. Now it is adding to the rate of shrinkage. When David Ricardo argued in the early 19th century that comparative advantage was the basis of trade, he conceived of countries specialising in products, like wine or cloth. But Mr Yi points out that countries now specialise not so much in final products as in steps in the process of production. Trade grows much faster in a world with global sourcing than in a world of trade in finished goods because components and part-finished items have to cross borders several times. The trade figures are also boosted by the practice of measuring the gross value of imports and exports rather than their net value. For example, a tractor made in America would once have been made from American steel and parts; it would have touched the trade data only if it was exported. Now, it may contain steel from India, and be stamped and pressed in Mexico, before being sold abroad. As a result, changes in demand in one country now affect not just the domestic economy but also the trade flows and economies of several countries. This mechanism can be seen at work in recent data—for instance, says Mr Yi, in American automotive-trade figures for the last three months of 2008. Imports from everywhere fell by about 20%. On the export side, sales to America’s partners in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) fell by 20% whereas those to non-NAFTA countries rose slightly. This, he argues, is because three-quarters of exports to non-NAFTA countries consist of finished vehicles, whereas 60% of exports to NAFTA partners consist of parts and components, most of which return to the United States embodied in imported vehicles. So American exports to other NAFTA countries are to a large extent determined by America’s own demand for cars. By making trade flows more sensitive to falls in output, vertical specialisation may provide some insurance against widespread protectionism. Manufacturers that rely on imported inputs may resist higher tariffs because they push up the prices of those inputs, making domestic industry less competitive..." http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13362027

Economia Internacional - comércio exterior

Variação de valor de exportações de bens dos países de G20. Variação porcentual Janeiro 2009 em relação com Janeiro 2008:

Economia Internacional - colapso do comércio

A crise global se mostra no colapso do comércio exterior mundial.

GDP = PIB

Trade = Comércio exterior

Variação porcentual por ano

Fracasso da teoria econômica padrão (mainstream)

The End of Mainstream Economics March 25, 2009 2:51 PM by Joseph Salerno This transcript is a translation of the first part of Egill Helgason's interview of Gunnar Tómasson, a former IMF economist, on Icelandic state television's "Silfur Egils" on February 1, 2009. (The video is available on YouTube.) Although Tómasson does not identify himself as an Austrian, the interview is wonderful and comes down on the right side of almost every issue. He names names and blames both Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman for the positivist and mathematical orientation of mainstream economic theory, which he argues is the underlying cause of the current breakdown of the global monetary and financial order. FULL TRANSCRIPT

Macro & Ec. Internacional

Porque tenho uma palestra com SEBRAE em Porto Alegre, não temos aula a quarta e quinta, dia 1. e 2. de abril. Vamos ter aula na segunda e na terça (30.3. e 31.3) na semana que vem.

PEQUIM, China, 24 Mar 2009 (AFP) - A China propõe no site do Banco Central do país a criação de uma "moeda de reserva internacional estável" para substituir o dólar, por considerar que a crise financeira exige "uma reforma criativa do sistema monetário internacional". A uma semana da reunião do G-20 em Londres, o presidente do BC chinês, Zhou Xiaochuan, afirma que a crise mostrou "as fragilidades inerentes do atual sistema monetário internacional". ... A China também manifestou a necessidade de uma moeda de reserva internacional "independente das nações individuais", de sua situação nacional, e "capaz de manter-se estável a longo prazo".Grande parte das reservas cambiais chinesas são em dólares e Pequim já expressou diversas vezes preocupação com o futuro das mesmas."A criação de uma nova moeda de reserva amplamente aceita poderia levar algum tempo", reconheceu Zhou, que sugeriu que os Direitos de Emissão Especiais possam ter o papel de "moeda de reserva supranacional".Estes Direitos, que têm o valor atrelado a uma cesta de moedas, foram criados pelo Fundo Monetário Mundial (FMI) em 1969 como uma reserva mundial para completar as reservas dos países membros quando a oferta de ouro e dólares não era suficiente.A reforma do sistema financeiro mundial centrará as discussões do G-20 no dia 2 de abril em Londres." http://economia.uol.com.br/ultnot/afp/2009/03/24/ult35u68457.jhtm

Política econômica

Seis lições sobre a política econômica de Ludwig von Mises Link

Brasil gastou menos em pacotes anticrise

Folha Online da Efe, em Genebra

O Brasil foi o país que teve em 2008 o menor gasto relativo entre as nações que apresentaram medidas anticrise, informou nesta terça-feira a OIT (Organização Internacional do Trabalho) em relatório que será entregue aos países do G20 (grupo dos países ricos e dos principais emergentes) para servir de subsídio para a reunião de cúpula no início de abril, em Londres.

Segundo a organização, no ano passado o Brasil gastou o equivalente a 0,2% do PIB (Produto Interno Bruto) em medidas para reduzir o impacto da crise financeira global. Foi o pior desempenho entre os 32 países que também anunciaram recursos...--

Macro: nova publicação brasileira

Renda, Consumo e Crescimento Gilberto Dupas 1a. edição, 2004 De R$ 29,90 por R$ 8,99 Para comprar pelo telefone ligue para 0800 140090

Volume da série Biblioteca Valor , "Renda, Consumo e Crescimento" analisa o período pós-estabilização do Plano Real (1995-2002), apontando seus efeitos positivos e negativos, bem como as possíveis soluções para esses impasses. A obra é fruto de pesquisa realizada no Instituto de Estudos Econômicos e Internacionais (IEEI), de São Paulo, com o apoio do Instituto Roberto Simonsen - Federação das Indústrias do Estado de São Paulo (IRS -Fiesp).

Título: Renda, Consumo e Crescimento Autor: Gilberto Dupas Editora: Publifolha Edição: 1a. edição, 2004 Idioma: Português Número de páginas: 112 páginas Formato: 12,9 cm x 19,8 cm (largura x altura) Especificação: Offset 90 g/m², 1 x 1 cor, Brochura Peso: 150 gramas ISBN: 85-7402-548-8 Área: Biblioteca Valor

O declínio Americano

Justin Raimondo explica as causas do declínio do imperio Americano: "I am not cheered by the subject of my talk here today, which is the decline and fall of the American empire, first, because I am an American, and, second, because the description of America as an empire fits it all too well. When you remember that the American Revolution was fought against an imperial power, that the U.S. was born in a struggle against an occupying army, and that its victory against the British was an inspiration to anti-imperialist liberals everywhere, it is a shaming thing to have to come here to describe how it ended in tragedy, betrayal, and a short and ugly decline..." Leia mais

Macroeconomia Slides do livro de texto de Blanchard

Blanchard Macroeconomia Slides Cap 10 Cap 11 Cap 12 Cap 13 http://continentaleconomics.com/AudioLectures.html

Recursos para Macro e Economia Internacional

Podcasts e slides: http://continentaleconomics.com/AudioLectures.html

A origem monetária da crise

Michael S. Rozeff explica: "The world economy is experiencing a severe recession or depression. This has been preceded by a steep inflation in nominal stocks of money across the entire world. Central banks control these money stocks or money supplies. They engineered a global credit boom by inflating their local currencies..." Text completo: http://www.lewrockwell.com/rozeff/rozeff282.html

Economia Internacional: slides

Para a próxima parte da teoria de comércio tratando "a nova teoria de comércio" usamos os slides de Paul Kugman de sua palestra Nobel. Download aqui: New Trade Theory Mais recursos: http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2008/krugman-lecture.html

Diferenças dentro do Salão Oval Pablo Martinez/AP Os presidentesObama e Lula: gracejos, piadas e sapatos brilhantes No primeiro encontro de Lula e Obama, apareceram diferenças entre os dois presidentes, quando deram entrevista no Salão Oval da Casa Branca. Eis algumas: • Enquanto Lula fala, Obama olha-o fixamente. Quando Obama fala, Lula olha para o teto, a plateia, o chão, o tradutor – para qualquer coisa, menos para o interlocutor. • Obama entende algumas palavras em português, anuindo com a cabeça antes que o tradutor entre em ação. Ou finge entender. Lula não pesca nada de inglês. Ou finge não pescar. • Lula e Obama gostam de descontrair o ambiente. Lula expressa sua informalidade em gracejos e piadas. Obama acompanha, mas sua descontração está na linguagem corporal. • Atenção, atenção, itamaratecas de punhos de renda: os sapatos pretos de Obama brilhavam mais que os sapatos pretos de Lula. http://veja.abril.com.br/idade/exclusivo/250309/radar.shtml

O Reino Unido: Destruido pela teoria de Keynes

Do "The Economist": This valedictory despatch by Sir Nicholas Henderson was written as he retired from the foreign service a few weeks ago having served successively as Britain's ambassador in Bonn and Paris. Sir Nicholas has subsequently been brought out of retirement to become ambassador in Washington. The despatch does not, needless to say, reach us from him and was presumably written for very limited circulation. But it is so unusually forthright and timely, particularly in its middle and concluding passages on British policy in Europe, under governments of every stripe, as to merit publication virtually in full. -- Leia a análise de Henderson: O declínio de Britannia http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13315108&source=hptextfeature

A formula que destruo Wall Street

"... A year ago, it was hardly unthinkable that a math wizard like David X. Li might someday earn a Nobel Prize. After all, financial economists—even Wall Street quants—have received the Nobel in economics before, and Li's work on measuring risk has had more impact, more quickly, than previous Nobel Prize-winning contributions to the field. Today, though, as dazed bankers, politicians, regulators, and investors survey the wreckage of the biggest financial meltdown since the Great Depression, Li is probably thankful he still has a job in finance at all. Not that his achievement should be dismissed. He took a notoriously tough nut—determining correlation, or how seemingly disparate events are related—and cracked it wide open with a simple and elegant mathematical formula, one that would become ubiquitous in finance worldwide. For five years, Li's formula, known as a Gaussian copula function, looked like an unambiguously positive breakthrough, a piece of financial technology that allowed hugely complex risks to be modeled with more ease and accuracy than ever before. With his brilliant spark of mathematical legerdemain, Li made it possible for traders to sell vast quantities of new securities, expanding financial markets to unimaginable levels. His method was adopted by everybody from bond investors and Wall Street banks to ratings agencies and regulators. And it became so deeply entrenched—and was making people so much money—that warnings about its limitations were largely ignored. Then the model fell apart. Cracks started appearing early on, when financial markets began behaving in ways that users of Li's formula hadn't expected. The cracks became full-fledged canyons in 2008—when ruptures in the financial system's foundation swallowed up trillions of dollars and put the survival of the global banking system in serious peril..." -- Texto completo: http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant

Bailout - quem recebe "ajuda"?

Matt Tibbi: "... There are plenty of people who have noticed, in recent years, that when they lost their homes to foreclosure or were forced into bankruptcy because of crippling credit-card debt, no one in the government was there to rescue them. But when Goldman Sachs — a company whose average employee still made more than $350,000 last year, even in the midst of a depression — was suddenly faced with the possibility of losing money on the unregulated insurance deals it bought for its insane housing bets, the government was there in an instant to patch the hole. That's the essence of the bailout: rich bankers bailing out rich bankers, using the taxpayers' credit card..." http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/print

The Bailout Reader

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Freddie Mac: A Mercantilist Enterprise, by Paul Cleveland, March 14, 2005 Fannie Mae: Another New Deal Monstrosity, by Karen De Coster, July 2, 2007 How Fannie and Freddie Made Me a Grumpy Economist, by Christopher Westley, July 21, 2008 Who Made the Fannie and Freddie Threat? By Frank Shostak, March 5, 2004 Are Fannie and Freddie Too Big to Fail? By Frank Shostak, September 17, 2008 Fannie Mae Distorts Markets, by Robert Blumen, June 17, 2002 The Housing Bubble The Housing Bubble in Four Easy Steps, by Mark Thornton, September 27, 2008 The Economics of Housing Bubbles, by Mark Thornton, June 6, 2006 The Real Cost of a Full Bailout, by Don Rich, August 22, 2008 The Subprime Mortgage "Crisis" Will Fix Itself, by Steve Berger, May 30, 2007 Did the Fed Cause the Housing Bubble? By Robert Murphy, April 14, 2008 The Mortgage Market Mess, by Christopher Westley, May 17, 2007 Housing Bubble: Myth or Reality? By Frank Shostak, March 4, 2003 Inflationary Finance Confidence Is Leaving the Fiat Money System, by Thorsten Polleit, October 10, 2008 What's Behind the Financial Market Crisis? by Antony Mueller, September 18, 2008 Our Financial House of Cards, by George Reisman, March 25, 2008 Will Central Bankers Become Central Planners? by Robert Blumen, July 31, 2008 Inflation is a Policy that Cannot Last, by Thorsten Polleit, March 14, 2008 The Widening Safety Net, by Christopher Mayer, March 19, 2004 The Fed's New Tricks Are Creating Disaster, Frank Shostak, March 18, 2008 The Fed's War on the Middle Class, by Mark Thornton, June 4, 2008. The Cultural and Spiritual Legacy of Fiat Inflation, by Jorg Guido Hulsmann, July 28, 2008. Stones into Bread, by Ludwig von Mises. Austrian Economics and Financial Markets conference at The Venetian Hotel Resort Casino, Las Vegas, 02-18-2005 Community Reinvestment Act The CRA Scam and its Defenders, by Thomas DiLorenzo, April 30, 2008 Regulatory Sneak Attack, by Thomas DiLorenzo, September 16, 1999 Short Selling The SEC Short Sells Us Down the River, by Art Carden and Robert Murphy, October 9, 2008 Short-Sale Restrictions Are an Exercise in Naked Power, by Robert Murphy, August 11, 2008 The Social Function of Futures Markets, by Robert Murphy, November 29, 2006 Don't Sell Short Selling Short, by Gary Galles, April 6, 2007 The Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle Financial Crisis and Recession, by Jesus Huerta de Soto, October 6, 2008 The Idiocy of Wall Street, by Don Rich, September 24, 2008 The Fed is Culpable, by Hans F. Sennholz, November 11, 2002 Skyscrapers and Business Cycles, by Mark Thornton, August 23, 2008 Economic Outlook 2008: Darkening Clouds, Dominick Armentano, January 2, 2008 Business Cycle Primer, Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. February 8, 2001 Economic Depressions: Their Cause and Cure, by Murray Rothbard Who Predicted This? The Financial Apocalyptics are Back, Robert Blumen, July 25, 2007 Sowing the Seeds of the Next Crisis, Thorsten Polleit, April 25, 2006 Credit Crisis: Precursor of Great Inflation, by Thorsten Polleit, February 7, 2008 Mr. Bailout, by Antony Mueller, September 30, 2004 America's Unsustainable Boom, by Stefan Karlsson, November 8, 2004 Who Predicted the Bubble? Who Predicted the Crash? By Mark Thornton, July 14, 2003 What To Do The Rescue Package Will Delay Recovery, September 29, 2008 Don't Bail Them Out, by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr., September 10, 2008 How to Avoid Another Depression, by Mark Thornton, September 10, 2008 Taking Money Back, By Murray N. Rothbard, June 14, 2008 Beware the Alchemists, by Ludwig von Mises, February 3, 2006 Reflation in American History, by H.A. Scott Trask, October 31, 2003 Money and Freedom, by Joseph Salerno, February 2, 2002 The Case for a Genuine Gold Dollar, by Murray Rothbard Interview with Frank Shostak, September 30, 2008 The Myth that Laissez-Faire is Responsible for the Economic Crisis, George Reisman, October 23, 2008 Books to Distribute The Theory of Money and Credit, by Ludwig von Mises America's Great Depression, by Murray Rothbard The Mystery of Banking, by Murray Rothbard Prices and Production, by F.A. Hayek Causes of the Economic Crisis, by Ludwig von Mises Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle and Other Essays, by Ludwig von Mises, et al. Understanding the Dollar Crisis, by Percy Greaves The Case Against the Fed, by Murray Rothbard Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles, by Jesus Huerta de Soto History of American Currency, by William Graham Sumner Banking and the Business Cycle, by C.A. Phillips The Roosevelt Myth, by John T. Flynn Fiat Money Inflation in France, by Andrew Dickson White http://mises.org/story/3128 1 - 10 of 911,000 for "The Bailout Reader" (About)

"Meltdown" - Tom Woods explica a crise

Meltdown’ Blames Feds for the Crashby Declan McCullagh (CBS) Not only is our current recession unusually deep and severe, but it’s about to become the longest since the Great Depression. Housing prices are crashing, stocks have fallen into a deep bear market, and the only things up besides unemployment are the sale of ammunition and AR-15 rifles. Figuring out how we’ve reached this point is not easy. One choice is to blame laissez-faire policies, an argument that’s been invoked by everyone from notoriously pessimistic economist Nouriel Roubini and reporters at the New York Times to French President Nicolas Sarkozy. On the other hand, the number of pages of federal regulations has swelled, not shrunk, over the last decade. The number of employees at the relevant agencies (SEC, FDIC, FINRA, OCC, NCUA, FFIEC, OTS, FHRA, and the FRB) has continued to grow. It was regulatory failure, not market failure, that gave us the spectacles of Darrel Dochow, Bernie Madoff, and taxpayer-funded bonuses at AIG. Another explanation is that unfettered greed, especially on the part of Wall Street and mortgage lenders, is the culprit. But human greed and avarice are not unique to the last decade, when housing prices skyrocketed beyond what fundamentals permit, making that explanation less satisfying than it should be. A new book by Thomas Woods called Meltdown (Regnery Publishing, 2009) provides a more fulfilling account of what went wrong, why it happened, and who’s to blame. Woods holds a doctorate in history from Columbia University and is the author of the bestselling, iconoclastic The Politically Incorrect Guide to American History. Woods’ latest book makes a strong argument for laying the blame squarely on the shoulders of Washington politicians and regulators. One chapter is titled “How Government Created the Housing Bubble,” and points to special privileges granted to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a federal law allowing tax-free capital gains, and the Community Reinvestment Act’s incentives for banks to make bad loans. The ultimate culprit, in Woods’ view, is the Federal Reserve. In 2001, he writes, “Fed chairman Alan Greenspan sought to reignite the economy through a series of rate cuts… the new money and credit overwhelmingly found its way into the housing market, where artificially lax lending standards made excessive home purchases and speculation in homes seem to many Americans like good financial moves.” This is not a unique criticism. Many economists, including Stanford University’s John Taylor, have charged that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates artificially low and that the housing boom and bust could have been avoided with more prudent government policies. At a congressional hearing last fall, some Democratic politicians made similar allegations. (For his part, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan responded in a Wall Street Journal op-ed article last week titled “The Fed Didn’t Cause the Housing Bubble.”) Woods is a senior fellow at the Mises Institute in Auburn, Ala., a non-profit group devoted to libertarian scholarship and championing what’s known as Austrian business cycle theory. The idea is that a central bank’s low interest rates expand the money supply, therefore creating malinvestments (because, say, real estate or dot-com entrepreneurs believe there’s immense demand for what they have to offer), an unsustainable boom, and an eventual correction. Nobel laureate F.A. Hayek, a leading proponent of that theory, was a founding board member of the institute. The Austrian explanation remains a minority one among economists — Times columnist Paul Krugman likened it to the “phlogiston theory of fire,” and the late Milton Friedman claimed it has done “a great deal of harm.” Woods’ solutions to today’s economic woes are the opposite of the U.S. government’s (or Krugman’s) approach: he would let firms go bankrupt, ditch Fannie and Freddie, halt bailouts, and question whether the Federal Reserve even needs to exist. Woods says Austrian theory is worth studying because it correctly predicted what’s happening today. “It’s about time we listened instead to people who have a coherent theory to explain why these crises occur, saw this crisis coming, and have something to suggest other than juvenile fantasies about spending and inflating our way to prosperity,” he writes, perhaps a little too optimistically given the current political climate in Washington. Woods’ work — the complete title is Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse — is in the vanguard of the first wave of books dissecting the Crash of 2008. (Rep. Ron Paul, the Texas Republican and former presidential candidate, said in a foreword that “there is no better book to read on the present crisis than this one.”) See Full text Go to Tom Woods’ website

EU - trilhões de dólares deficits orçamentais por anos

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama's budget would generate deficits averaging almost $1 trillion a year over the next decade, according to the latest congressional estimates, significantly worse than predicted by the White House just last month. The Congressional Budget Office figures, obtained by The Associated Press Friday, predict Obama's budget will produce $9.3 trillion worth of red ink over 2010-2019. That's $2.3 trillion worse than the White House predicted in its budget. Worst of all, CBO says the deficit under Obama's policies would never go below 4 percent of the size of the economy, figures that economists agree are unsustainable. By the end of the decade, the deficit would exceed 5 percent of gross domestic product, a dangerously high level. --- http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090320/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_budget

A bolsa americana vista de Europa

O Índice Standard & Poor's 500 deflacionado por o índice de preço e corrigido por a taxa de câmbio do dólar (em relação do marco alemão e desde 1999 do Euro).

Resultado: Em Fevereiro 2009 o valor do índice voltou por o mesmo nível como em Junho de 1964.

A Ponzi economia dos Estados Unidos

Nouriel Roubini: The United States Of Ponzi "... A reporter contacted me recently with the following question: "I am a reporter, and I am doing a story on Bernard Madoff's life after pleading guilty. As part of this, I was wondering if you could comment on what significance he will have in the history of this period. Will he represent more than a scamster who stole a lot of money from a lot of people? As Bernie Ebbers and Ken Lay came to embody corporate greed and deceit, what will Madoff symbolize?" Here is my answer fleshed out in full: Americans lived in a "Made-off" and Ponzi bubble economy for a decade or even longer. Madoff is the mirror of the American economy and of its over-leveraged agents: a house of cards of leverage over leverage by households, financial firms and corporations that has now collapsed in a heap. When you put zero down on your home, and you thus have no equity in your home, your leverage is literally infinite and you are playing a Ponzi game. And the bank that lent you, with zero down, a NINJA (no income, no jobs and assets) liar loan that was interest-only for a while, with negative amortization and an initial teaser rate, was also playing a Ponzi game. And private equity firms that did over a $1 trillion of leveraged buyouts (LBOs) in the last few years with a debt-to-earnings ratio of 10 or above were also Ponzi firms playing a Ponzi game. A government that will issue trillions of dollars of new debt to pay for this severe recession and socialize private losses may risk becoming a Ponzi government if--in the medium term--it does not return to fiscal discipline and debt sustainability. A country that has--for over 25 years--spent more than income and thus run an endless string of current account deficit--and has thus become the largest net foreign debtor in the world (with net foreign liabilities that are likely to be over $3 trillion by the end of this year)--is also a Ponzi country that may eventually default on its foreign debt if it does not, over time, tighten its belt and start running smaller current account deficits and actual trade surpluses. Whenever you persistently consume more than your income year after year (a household with negative savings, a government with budget deficit, a firm or financial institution with persistent losses, a country with a current account deficit) you are playing a Ponzi game. In the jargon of formal economics, you are not satisfying your long-run inter-temporal budget constraint as you borrow to finance the interest rate on your previous debt, and are thus following an unsustainable debt dynamics that eventually leads to outright insolvency..." Texto completo: http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/18/american-economy-housing-bubble-madoff-opinions-columnists-ponzi_print.html

Fim do papel do dólar como moeda de reserva global

LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) - A U.N. panel will next week recommend that the world ditch the dollar as its reserve currency in favor of a shared basket of currencies, a member of the panel said on Wednesday, adding to pressure on the dollar...-- http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE52H2CY20090318

A origem da crise

Os autores do segunte artigo analisam o papel da teoria de gestão como causa da crise e negam que boni e "shareholder value" sejam culpables: "... Is management theory to blame for the current crisis in the world economy? Some commentators think that business schools' focus on shareholder wealth maximization, performance-based pay, and the virtue of self-interest have led banks, corporations, and governments astray. Hefty bonuses promoted excessive risk-taking, and the free-market philosophy taught in business schools removed the final ethical checks and balances on such behavior. "It is the type of thinking," worry Raymond Fisman and Rakesh Khurana in Forbes (December 12, 2008), "that is now bringing capitalism to its knees..." Leia mais:

O que acontece sem bailouts do governo?

NEW YORK (AP) -- What if the government got out of the bailout business?