quinta-feira, 26 de janeiro de 2017
Efeito de NAFTA
"Before NAFTA was signed, we were already five-sevenths of the way from July 1953 to our present state in terms of “losing” manufacturing jobs. We were three-fifths of the way from January 1971 to our present state. Even the best policies favorable to nurturing a country's manufacturing sector would not have prevented this process of the shedding of relatively inefficient manufacturing jobs. The trend preced...
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quarta-feira, 25 de janeiro de 2017
Análise da dívida brasileira
In previous pieces, we have analyzed the run up to the still-ongoing Brazilian recession as a combination of factors. Given an “anemia” of productivity increases, an appetite for public spending without prioritization led to a condition of fiscal “obesity”. The external factors that provided for a boom in the new millennium, notwithstanding underlying vulnerabilities, have dissipated. The economic policy adopted as a response to the growth decline aggravated those vulnerabilities. On top of those, a disruption of existing large domestic corporate structures followed broad corruption investigations (Canuto, 2016a) (Canuto, 2016b) (Canuto, 2016c).
Here, with the help of five charts, we touch on another dimension of Brazil’s economic boom and bust, namely, a credit cycle, the downward phase of which helps understand why the post-crisis recovery has been so hard to obtain. In our view, the profile of such a credit cycle in effect points to it as a special chapter of our previously approached determinants of the Brazilian economic crisis.
domingo, 22 de janeiro de 2017
Nova teoria do comércio internacional
Recursos para Economia Internacional
Áudio Podcast do 20 de janeiro 2017 sobre:
"A Nova Teoria do Comércio Internacional (NTT)"
NEW Aulas 2017 (2016/2)
Áudio Podcass
- A nova teoria do comércio internacional (NTT)
20 de janeiro de 2017
Mais recusos:
http://continentaleconomics.com/AulasOnlineComercioExterior.html
Áudio Podcast do 20 de janeiro 2017 sobre:
"A Nova Teoria do Comércio Internacional (NTT)"
NEW Aulas 2017 (2016/2)
Áudio Podcass
- A nova teoria do comércio internacional (NTT)
20 de janeiro de 2017
Mais recusos:
http://continentaleconomics.com/AulasOnlineComercioExterior.html
sábado, 21 de janeiro de 2017
O Brasil na armadilha da renda média
"A armadilha da renda média ocorre quando um país emergente entra em um período de estagnação após ele ter completado a sua "decolagem" e ter superado a armadilha da pobreza e a armadilha malthusiana. Tendo chegado ao nível da renda média, a trajetória do crescimento econômico efetuada durante a decolagem deixa de ser sustentável.
Durante a fase da decolagem, a mão-de-obra barata alimenta uma rápida expansão econômica em decorrência da migração que ocorre das áreas rurais para as cidades industriais. Nesta fase, a economia cresce pela migração, pela aglomeração e pela acumulação de capital. As taxas de crescimento econômico são altas porque a mão-de-obra é abundante e barata, e a acumulação de capital ainda gera altos retornos.
As taxas de crescimento começam cair quando a mão-de-obra se torna menos abundante e o retorno marginal do capital se torna marginalmente menor.
O Brasil representa um caso em que a entrada na armadilha da renda média resultou em políticas erradas que pioraram a situação ..."
Durante a fase da decolagem, a mão-de-obra barata alimenta uma rápida expansão econômica em decorrência da migração que ocorre das áreas rurais para as cidades industriais. Nesta fase, a economia cresce pela migração, pela aglomeração e pela acumulação de capital. As taxas de crescimento econômico são altas porque a mão-de-obra é abundante e barata, e a acumulação de capital ainda gera altos retornos.
As taxas de crescimento começam cair quando a mão-de-obra se torna menos abundante e o retorno marginal do capital se torna marginalmente menor.
O Brasil representa um caso em que a entrada na armadilha da renda média resultou em políticas erradas que pioraram a situação ..."
Antony Mueller http://www.mises.org.br/Article.aspx?id=1765
Após um crescimento moderado na década de 1990 -- consequência inevitável de seus fortes e necessários…
mises.org.br
Brasil - produtividade (total factor productivity), 1950-2014
http://www1.worldbank.org/prem/PREMNotes/premnote42.pdf
sexta-feira, 20 de janeiro de 2017
A economia mundial no começo de 2017
TEXTOS PARA DISCUSSÃO No. 2017/01
The world economy in early 2017 Antony P. Mueller
http://cafecomdados.com/…/20…/01/texto_discussão_2017_01.pdf
The world economy in early 2017 Antony P. Mueller
http://cafecomdados.com/…/20…/01/texto_discussão_2017_01.pdf
quinta-feira, 19 de janeiro de 2017
Fórum UFS de Economia
Fórum UFS de Economia
Análise e debate sobre a conjuntura nacional e internacional e seus reflexos sobre a dinâmica da economia sergipana.
-
ter
24
jan
2017
18:50 a 20:30Local: Auditório ADUFS
Palestrantes:
Antony Peter Mueller
José Ricardo de Santana
Luiz Rogério de Camargos
Thiago Henrique Rios
Wagner Nóbrega
Programa:
Panorama sobre a Conjuntura Econômica
Tópico especial: PEC dos Gastos
* Certificado de participação
* A inscrição deverá ser realizada no próprio evento
Estrutura do comércio global
Países industrialisados (75 %)
Países emergentes (36,4 %)
Países em desnevolvimento (31,5 %)
Comércio internacional 1870-2010
quarta-feira, 18 de janeiro de 2017
As dez leis fundamentais da economia (agora na versão em alemã)
Zehn fundamentale ökonomische Gesetze
Artikel vom 16. Januar 2017
16.01.2017 – von Antony P. Mueller. Inmitten von ökonomischen Trugschlüssen, die schier unendlich wiederholt werden, ist es sicherlich hilfreich, sich auf einige der grundlegendsten ökonomischen Gesetze zu besinnen. Hier sind zehn dieser Gesetze aufgelistet, die nicht oft genug wiederholt werden können. 1....
Versão em português: http://www.mises.org.br/Article.aspx?id=2592
Versão em Inglês: https://mises.org/blog/ten-fundamental-laws-economics
Versão em Inglês: https://mises.org/blog/ten-fundamental-laws-economics
terça-feira, 17 de janeiro de 2017
China em favor de livre comércio
https://economia.uol.com.br/…/presidente-da-china-pede-que-…
EUA adotando políticas protecionistas e a China comunista defendendo o livre comércio,o que o mundo se tornou...
EUA adotando políticas protecionistas e a China comunista defendendo o livre comércio,o que o mundo se tornou...
segunda-feira, 16 de janeiro de 2017
A economia mundial no começo de 2017
The world
economy in early 2017
Antony P. Mueller
INDUSTRIALIZED
ECONOMIES
Presidential
transition
The
transition in the United States from President Barack Obama to Donald Trump
does not run smoothly and adds to the general uncertainty that clouds the
beginning of 2017. As the inauguration of the new president gets nearer, the
controversies mount. While fierce disputes marked already the electoral
campaign, these became even more severe after the election. The quarrels are
not confined to the United States. Already during his campaign, the incoming
president has provoked severe concerns in Mexico, China, and Europe. Trump has
put the role of NATO into doubt and stands for a complete turn-around as to its
relation with Russia. Across the globe, concerns are on the rise that the
United States will lead the world toward the abyss of protectionism.
As dez leis fundamentais da economia
sábado, 14 de janeiro de 2017
sexta-feira, 13 de janeiro de 2017
Taxas de poupança - Brasil e China
Taxa de poupança Brasil, 1965-2017
Taxa de poupança, China, 1980-2017
Taxa de poupança, China, 1980-2017
quinta-feira, 12 de janeiro de 2017
Economistas preocupados com Trump
quarta-feira, 11 de janeiro de 2017
Recursos para Economia Internacional - vantagens absolutas e relativas
Vantagens absolutas e relativas - abordagem gráfica
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hno4BVnSh8
Vantagens absolutas e relativas - os ganhos de comércio
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEqHI88MumQ
Mais recursos:
http://continentaleconomics.com/AulasOnlineComercioExterior.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hno4BVnSh8
Vantagens absolutas e relativas - os ganhos de comércio
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEqHI88MumQ
Mais recursos:
http://continentaleconomics.com/AulasOnlineComercioExterior.html
terça-feira, 10 de janeiro de 2017
Teoria de Thomas Malthus
“Economic Ideas: Thomas Malthus on Population, Passions, Property and Politics.”
http://www.fff.org/…/economic-ideas-thomas-malthus-populat…/
We live in an amazing time during which human poverty is slowly but surely coming to an end. Even with over 7.4 billion people in the world (compared to 1.1 billion a mere two hundred years ago), food supplies have expanded beyond imagination, resulting in not o...nly enough to eat to sustain this seven-fold increase in human population, but to provide a rising standard of living with far greater nutrition, as well as ease and comfort for more and more people nearly everywhere.
http://www.fff.org/…/economic-ideas-thomas-malthus-populat…/
We live in an amazing time during which human poverty is slowly but surely coming to an end. Even with over 7.4 billion people in the world (compared to 1.1 billion a mere two hundred years ago), food supplies have expanded beyond imagination, resulting in not o...nly enough to eat to sustain this seven-fold increase in human population, but to provide a rising standard of living with far greater nutrition, as well as ease and comfort for more and more people nearly everywhere.
In earlier times, only the imaginers of utopias projected a future time without want and worry for the multitude. And most of these dreamed collectivist dreams of one type or another. One of them was William Godwin 1790s, who prophesied that if man would abolish private property, live and work in common with an equality of material reward a paradise on earth could be man’s.
Thomas Malthus, an ordained minister turned political economist and demographer, challenged Godwin’s utopian dream, in his famous “Essay on the Principle of Population” (1798) by arguing that man’s ability to procreate was a multiple of his ability to bring forth food from the soil. Thus, a world of plenitude would always be beyond man’s reach, with “vice” and “misery” keeping his numbers at a level not too far from the perpetual risk of poverty and starvation. The only avenue to defer or prevent this, Malthus came to argue, was “moral restraint,” the discipline and forethought to defer marriage and children until one had sufficiently established one’s financial ability to support a family above subsistence.
Of course, Thomas Malthus, like many others in his own time, failed to appreciate the potentials for material plenty that the industrial revolution was about to make possible in a political and economic institutional order freed from the heavy hand of government regulation, restriction and command. Economic liberalism unchained the minds and actions of savers, investors, innovative entrepreneurs and industrious workers that has brought about this economic miracle of human betterment and well-being that is coming within the reach of nearly all of mankind.
But, nonetheless, Malthus strongly argued against those like Godwin’s collectivist visions, by emphasizing the importance of individual freedom to guide one’s own life, and the essentiality of private property, without which any chance for human improvement would crumble.
Furthermore, he warned that if freedom and prosperity was to be possible the citizenry had to be alert and resistant to those in government who consistently and persistently believe that they know better than the people and have an insatiable drive for more unconstrained powers to regulation and control society.
Ver maisThomas Malthus, an ordained minister turned political economist and demographer, challenged Godwin’s utopian dream, in his famous “Essay on the Principle of Population” (1798) by arguing that man’s ability to procreate was a multiple of his ability to bring forth food from the soil. Thus, a world of plenitude would always be beyond man’s reach, with “vice” and “misery” keeping his numbers at a level not too far from the perpetual risk of poverty and starvation. The only avenue to defer or prevent this, Malthus came to argue, was “moral restraint,” the discipline and forethought to defer marriage and children until one had sufficiently established one’s financial ability to support a family above subsistence.
Of course, Thomas Malthus, like many others in his own time, failed to appreciate the potentials for material plenty that the industrial revolution was about to make possible in a political and economic institutional order freed from the heavy hand of government regulation, restriction and command. Economic liberalism unchained the minds and actions of savers, investors, innovative entrepreneurs and industrious workers that has brought about this economic miracle of human betterment and well-being that is coming within the reach of nearly all of mankind.
But, nonetheless, Malthus strongly argued against those like Godwin’s collectivist visions, by emphasizing the importance of individual freedom to guide one’s own life, and the essentiality of private property, without which any chance for human improvement would crumble.
Furthermore, he warned that if freedom and prosperity was to be possible the citizenry had to be alert and resistant to those in government who consistently and persistently believe that they know better than the people and have an insatiable drive for more unconstrained powers to regulation and control society.
A "China da América do Sul"
Recursos para Macro 3: crescimento econômico
Data Shows do livro de texto
Data Shows Crescimento Econômico:
- Os fatos do crescimento econômico
- Poupança e a acumulação do capital
- Progresso tecnológico e crescimento
- Progresso tecnológico e desemprego
MAIS
Fatos do crescimento econômico
Data Shows Crescimento Econômico:
- Os fatos do crescimento econômico
- Poupança e a acumulação do capital
- Progresso tecnológico e crescimento
- Progresso tecnológico e desemprego
MAIS
Fatos do crescimento econômico
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