Novos podcasts Macro e Economia Internacional

Novas Podcasts de Prof. Antony Mueller Macroeconomia III e Economia Internacional 1. semestre 2009 Economia Internacional: Modelos e Teorias do Comércio Internacional Macroeconomia: Crescimento Econômico - Introdução Crescimento Econômico no seu contexto macroeconômico Macroeconomia. Origens de crises econômicas e financeiras Modelos básicos da macroeconomia Macroeconomia: Modelos principais Macroeconomia: Crescimento Econômico Revisão I Se o podcast não abre, procure aqui: http://continentaleconomics.com/AudioLectures.html

Dez países - dez "soluções" da crise

Um panorama da reação de dez países (incluindo o Brasil) enfrente da crise financeira. Os desafios e os instrumentos e as medidas aplicados: http://finance.yahoo.com/loans/article/106826/10-Countries-10-Solutions

Links de artigos que examinam a contribuição de modelos estadísticos quantitativos de modelar risco e incerteza para a emergência da crise atual: A dash of this integer and a dab of that regression March 30, 2009 11:11 PM by Tim Swanson Wondering about the various mathematical formulas that were used by various Wall Street firms in quantifying risk? Here are several pieces that discuss the role quants played in modeling risk and uncertainty: - My Manhattan Project by Michael Osinksi (NY Mag) - Recipe for Disaster by Felix Simon (Wired) - How Wall Street Lied to Its Computers by Saul Hansell (NY Times) In addition you may enjoy two relatively recent pieces by Michael Lewis, The End of Wall Street's Boom and Wall Street on the Tundra Leia como a Universidade Harvard perdeu bilhões do seu fundo de investimentos: “I’m not trying to pretend I’m omniscient or anything, but a lot of people who were quantitative traders, in the back of our minds, we knew a lot of these models were just that: guestimates,” Mack says..." http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=527380

Economia Internacional: Prova

1. Prova em Economia Internacional Dia: 6 de Abril 17 horas Tema: Os modelos e teorias de comércio internacional 1. Mercantilismo 2. Vantagens absolutas 3. Vantagens relativas 4. Heckscher-Ohlin (dotação relativa de fatores de produção) 5. Nova teoria de comércio (incluindo ciclo de produto) 10 perguntas - respostas na forma de marcar a resposta certa, preencher, sublinhar 5 perguntas fáceis, 3 perguntas média, 2 perguntas um pouco mais difícil Como estudar: menos de "decorar", procure mais de entender o modelo e aprende o que significam os conceitos (por exemplo: "preços relativos", "custos de oportunidade", "relação de troca", etc.). Procure exemplos onde os modelos podem ser aplicados.

Convite

O muro de Rio

No Rio de Janeiro se começa construir um muro entre os bairos dos "ricos" e dos "pobres": Brazil builds walls around Rio de Janeiro slums Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:03pm EDT Brazil builds walls around Rio de Janeiro slums RIO DE JANEIRO, March 28 (Reuters) - The government of Rio de Janeiro is building concrete walls to prevent sprawling slums from spreading farther into the picturesque hills of this world-famous tourist destination, an official said on Saturday.Construction has begun in two favelas, or shantytowns, in the southern districts of Rio de Janeiro, a government spokeswoman told Reuters. One of the two is Morro Dona Marta, which police occupied in November to control crime and violence caused mostly by rival drug gangs.Officials say the wall is to protect the remaining native forest but critics fear the move could be seen as discriminatory and become a blemish symbolizing Brazil's deep divisions between rich and poor... Leia mais: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN28291897

Macro III - Aulas e prova

Temos aula regular na terça as 21 horas Não tem aula a quinta (2. Abril 2009) 1. prova avisada no 16 de Abril

Economia Internacional: Aulas - prova

Tem aula regular a segunda, 20 do Março as 17 horas. Não tem aula a quarta (1. de Abril 2009) Na segunda vamos fazer uma revisão em preparação da prova que vai acontecer no 6 de Abril 2009 com os temas - Mercantilismo - Vantagens absolutas - Vantagens relativas - Heckscher-Ohlin (incl. fatores específicos) - Novas abordagens (incl. ciclo de produto) Orientação para estudar: Você estuda o texto com o objectivo de aplicar o modelo na realidade econômica do comércio internacional. Assim você precisa ser capaz de responder os seguintes perguntas principais: Exemplo: 1. O comércio entre país A e país B no produto M se pode explicar com o modelo X 2. Um bom exemplo para ilustrar o que o modelo X se pode encontrar no comércio entre país A e país B no produto M Exemplos concretos: 1. O comércio de Alemanha com Arábia Saudita - Alemanha exportando carro Mercedes e importando petróleo - se pode explicar bem com o modelo de vantagens absolutas. 2. O comércio de Alemanha com França - Alemanha exportando Volkswagen e importando Renault - se pode explicar bem com o a nova teoria de comércio internacional.

Ultimatum para o dólar

China encontra suporte de Brasil e Rússia para desafiar a posição do dólar como moeda de reserva internacional: "...There's a new power in international finance: Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, the $2 trillion central bank of China. It has the tools and the financial interests to be the new power player on the global financial stage... Zhou--backed by Russia, Brazil and India--wants to break the dollar's hegemony in global finance. In a paper grandly called "Reform the International Monetary System," Zhou has called for the creation of an international currency unit that he admits will require "extraordinary political vision and courage." He suggests that we start with a blend of the dollar, pound, yen and euro--the so-called Special Drawing Rights (SDR) created by the IMF in 1969 ... Zhou's provocative remarks come only days after Premier Wen Jiabao demanded U.S. action to safeguard China's holdings of U.S. bonds--some $740 billion of Treasuries and $600 billion of other debt. "We have lent huge amounts of money to the U.S. [and] we are concerned about the safety of our assets," said Wen. Indeed, China has bought $200 billion of Treasuries while selling agency securities over the past six months. But it also lost about a third of its equity holdings, including $5 billion in the Lehman bankruptcy... Zhou has surprised the experts by suggesting that international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund should manage some nations' currency reserves... This would be a shocking change in a system where central banks maintain control over their reserves and many keep their operations entirely secret and non-transparent. Zhou makes a telling point when he insists that "the centralized management of part of the global reserve by a trustworthy international institution will be more effective in deterring speculation and stabilizing financial markets." In other words, Zhou is saying that the recent vicious meltdown might have been avoided if the world's financial system was not tied solely to the American dollar, the currency at the focal point of the global economy... Leia mais: http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106817/Dollar-Slams-Up-Against-a-Great-Wall

Política econômica brasileira enfrente da crise

Brasil precisa sair da crise sem contar com Washington, diz jornal da BBC Brasil O Brasil não deveria depositar suas esperanças para sair da crise econômica global nos Estados Unidos, de acordo com artigo publicado nesta segunda-feira no jornal americano "The Wall Street Journal" ("WSJ"). A colunista Mary Anastasia O'Grady, que integra o conselho editorial do diário especializado em finanças, disse que o Brasil se tornou uma "potência exportadora" na última década e o presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva é hoje "um dos defensores mais ardentes do livre comércio global", mas as condições do mercado americano não são favoráveis. "Atingido pela queda no preço dos imóveis, o consumidor americano abandonou a compra frenética e começou a economizar. Isto reduziu a demanda e não há muito que o Brasil possa fazer", disse o artigo. O'Grady disse que Lula deveria usar sua posição de força como presidente para "impulsionar uma reforma dos pesados encargos fiscais do Brasil, que prejudicam a criação de empregos, ao invés de colocar suas esperanças na ação do governo dos Estados Unidos para ressuscitar o consumidor"... http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/bbc/ult272u538920.shtml

Economia Internacional - comércio

Da Folha de São Paulo: "... As roupas que os europeus vestem vêm principalmente de países com mão-de-obra barata. De acordo com o Departamento de Estatísticas da União Europeia, Eurostat, o valor total de roupas importadas em 2007 foi de quase 60 bilhões de euros (R$ 181 bilhões), sendo que 38% das mercadorias vieram da China, 15% da Turquia e 8% de Bangladesh. Na Alemanha, 90% das roupas provêm do exterior..." http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dw/ult1908u540951.shtml

Economia Internacional - tarifas

The Economist sobre a nova tendencia de impor tarifas sobre o comércio: "... Governments using tariffs as trade weapons now have to calculate the consequences far more carefully. This is borne out, for example, by Mexico’s response this month to the suspension by America of a NAFTA programme that allowed some Mexican truckers to carry goods north of the border. Mexico raised some tariffs, but by less than NAFTA rules allowed, and chose the goods carefully in order to limit the damage to its own industries. Nevertheless, there is plenty of evidence that developing countries, at least, continue to use tariffs extensively. In the World Bank’s study, tariff increases accounted for half of the protective measures by these countries. Ecuador raised duties on 600 goods. Russia increased them on used cars. India put them up on some kinds of steel. Developing countries have more scope for raising tariffs without breaking WTO rules than richer ones do, because the gap between their applied rates and the ceilings they agreed to is greater than for developed countries. When governments do impose tariffs, vertical supply chains amplify their effects. Because tariffs are typically levied on the gross value crossing the border (with some exceptions, such as exports from Mexican maquiladoras), trade responds more to changes in tariffs—down or up—with global supply chains than without. But there is another, more subtle reason to worry about even small rises in tariffs. Theoretical models that incorporate vertical specialisation find that it takes off only when tariffs fall below a threshold level. Once this happens, however, trade explodes, so that a slight lowering of trade barriers can cause a huge increase in trade. By the same token, if tariffs rose above a certain point—which might be below the maximum agreed on at the WTO—global supply chains would disintegrate. Trade would drop even more steeply than it has in recent months. That said, supply chains need not snap so easily. Even if tariffs go up, other costs that determine the viability of supply chains may go down: the price of oil (and hence the cost of transport) has fallen a long way in the past year. Firms have invested a lot in their supply chains and will be loth to abandon them. And if global supply chains do survive, vertical specialisation could help trade recover speedily when demand returns. Although increased tariffs are a cause for concern, they are far from the only form of protection being used in this crisis. Two-thirds of the trade-restricting measures documented by the World Bank are non-tariff barriers of various kinds. As with tariffs, developing countries are the principal wielders of these weapons. Indonesia has specified that certain categories of goods, such as clothes, shoes and toys, may be imported through only five ports. Argentina has imposed discretionary licensing requirements on car parts, textiles, televisions, toys, shoes and leather goods; licences for all these used to be granted automatically. Some countries have imposed outright import bans, often justified by a tightening of safety rules or by environmental concerns. For example, China has stopped imports of a wide range of European food and drink, including Irish pork, Italian brandy and Spanish dairy products. The Indian government has banned Chinese toys. In addition, anti-dumping is on the increase. The number of anti-dumping cases initiated at the WTO had been declining, but it started to pick up in the second half of 2007. The data for 2008 are not yet complete but Chad Brown, an economist at Brandeis University, estimates that the number was 31% higher than in the previous year. The number of cases ending with extra duties went up by 20%. India was the biggest initiator of anti-dumping action, and America and the European Union imposed duties most frequently. Rich countries’ weapon of choice so far is neither tariffs nor non-tariff barriers to imports. They have been keen users instead of subsidies to troubled domestic industries, particularly carmakers. Some economists, such as Gene Grossman, of Princeton University, cite this as evidence that global sourcing has changed the political economy of protection. The American automotive industry no longer lobbies for direct protection, as it used to, because it imports much of its value-added and competes with foreign firms that assemble their cars in America. Carmakers now prefer explicit subsidies, and the world is replete with examples. Besides America, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Britain, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy and Sweden have all also provided direct or indirect subsidies to carmakers. The World Bank reckons that proposed subsidies for the car industry amount to $48 billion. Nearly 90% of this is in rich countries, where it can easily be slipped into budgetary packages to stimulate demand. The worry about such subsidies is that they could cause production to switch from more efficient plants (eg, in central and eastern Europe) to less efficient ones in rich countries with deep pockets (eg, in western Europe). Whether the location of output is shifting is not yet clear, but politicians plainly hope it will. On March 19th Luc Chatel, the French industry minister, boasted that Renault’s plans to create 400 jobs at a factory near Paris by “repatriating” some production from Slovenia was the result of government aid. Renault has denied this, saying that it was at full capacity in Slovenia..." Leia mais: http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13362027

Economia Internacional: Novos aspectos

The Economist: "... Kei-Mu Yi, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, argues that trade has fallen so fast and so uniformly around the world largely because of the rise of “vertical specialisation”, or global supply chains. This contributed to trade’s rapid expansion in recent decades. Now it is adding to the rate of shrinkage. When David Ricardo argued in the early 19th century that comparative advantage was the basis of trade, he conceived of countries specialising in products, like wine or cloth. But Mr Yi points out that countries now specialise not so much in final products as in steps in the process of production. Trade grows much faster in a world with global sourcing than in a world of trade in finished goods because components and part-finished items have to cross borders several times. The trade figures are also boosted by the practice of measuring the gross value of imports and exports rather than their net value. For example, a tractor made in America would once have been made from American steel and parts; it would have touched the trade data only if it was exported. Now, it may contain steel from India, and be stamped and pressed in Mexico, before being sold abroad. As a result, changes in demand in one country now affect not just the domestic economy but also the trade flows and economies of several countries. This mechanism can be seen at work in recent data—for instance, says Mr Yi, in American automotive-trade figures for the last three months of 2008. Imports from everywhere fell by about 20%. On the export side, sales to America’s partners in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) fell by 20% whereas those to non-NAFTA countries rose slightly. This, he argues, is because three-quarters of exports to non-NAFTA countries consist of finished vehicles, whereas 60% of exports to NAFTA partners consist of parts and components, most of which return to the United States embodied in imported vehicles. So American exports to other NAFTA countries are to a large extent determined by America’s own demand for cars. By making trade flows more sensitive to falls in output, vertical specialisation may provide some insurance against widespread protectionism. Manufacturers that rely on imported inputs may resist higher tariffs because they push up the prices of those inputs, making domestic industry less competitive..." http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13362027

Economia Internacional - comércio exterior

Variação de valor de exportações de bens dos países de G20. Variação porcentual Janeiro 2009 em relação com Janeiro 2008:

Economia Internacional - colapso do comércio

A crise global se mostra no colapso do comércio exterior mundial.

GDP = PIB

Trade = Comércio exterior

Variação porcentual por ano

Fracasso da teoria econômica padrão (mainstream)

The End of Mainstream Economics March 25, 2009 2:51 PM by Joseph Salerno This transcript is a translation of the first part of Egill Helgason's interview of Gunnar Tómasson, a former IMF economist, on Icelandic state television's "Silfur Egils" on February 1, 2009. (The video is available on YouTube.) Although Tómasson does not identify himself as an Austrian, the interview is wonderful and comes down on the right side of almost every issue. He names names and blames both Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman for the positivist and mathematical orientation of mainstream economic theory, which he argues is the underlying cause of the current breakdown of the global monetary and financial order. FULL TRANSCRIPT

Macro & Ec. Internacional

Porque tenho uma palestra com SEBRAE em Porto Alegre, não temos aula a quarta e quinta, dia 1. e 2. de abril. Vamos ter aula na segunda e na terça (30.3. e 31.3) na semana que vem.

PEQUIM, China, 24 Mar 2009 (AFP) - A China propõe no site do Banco Central do país a criação de uma "moeda de reserva internacional estável" para substituir o dólar, por considerar que a crise financeira exige "uma reforma criativa do sistema monetário internacional". A uma semana da reunião do G-20 em Londres, o presidente do BC chinês, Zhou Xiaochuan, afirma que a crise mostrou "as fragilidades inerentes do atual sistema monetário internacional". ... A China também manifestou a necessidade de uma moeda de reserva internacional "independente das nações individuais", de sua situação nacional, e "capaz de manter-se estável a longo prazo".Grande parte das reservas cambiais chinesas são em dólares e Pequim já expressou diversas vezes preocupação com o futuro das mesmas."A criação de uma nova moeda de reserva amplamente aceita poderia levar algum tempo", reconheceu Zhou, que sugeriu que os Direitos de Emissão Especiais possam ter o papel de "moeda de reserva supranacional".Estes Direitos, que têm o valor atrelado a uma cesta de moedas, foram criados pelo Fundo Monetário Mundial (FMI) em 1969 como uma reserva mundial para completar as reservas dos países membros quando a oferta de ouro e dólares não era suficiente.A reforma do sistema financeiro mundial centrará as discussões do G-20 no dia 2 de abril em Londres." http://economia.uol.com.br/ultnot/afp/2009/03/24/ult35u68457.jhtm

Política econômica

Seis lições sobre a política econômica de Ludwig von Mises Link

Brasil gastou menos em pacotes anticrise

Folha Online da Efe, em Genebra

O Brasil foi o país que teve em 2008 o menor gasto relativo entre as nações que apresentaram medidas anticrise, informou nesta terça-feira a OIT (Organização Internacional do Trabalho) em relatório que será entregue aos países do G20 (grupo dos países ricos e dos principais emergentes) para servir de subsídio para a reunião de cúpula no início de abril, em Londres.

Segundo a organização, no ano passado o Brasil gastou o equivalente a 0,2% do PIB (Produto Interno Bruto) em medidas para reduzir o impacto da crise financeira global. Foi o pior desempenho entre os 32 países que também anunciaram recursos...--