Boletim IPEA

Ipea lança Boletim de Economia e Política Internacional
Na primeira edição, publicação traz artigos sobre as políticas para enfrentar a crise e os desafios do G20

Os limites da análise financeira quantitativa

THE QUANTS

How A New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It

By Scott Patterson

Twenty-five years ago, the quintessential Wall Street trader was a brash, ballsy risk taker whose actions were motivated by gut instinct and social connections. But in the decades since, the proverbial “gut trader” has been supplanted by a new breed of investor, elite math geniuses—ex-cryptographers, physicists, and game theorists—who’ve swapped old-style hunches for complicated algorithms and supercomputers. Scott Patterson’s forthcoming book: The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It (Crown Business; On sale: February 2, 2010) chronicles the story of the quants’ rise, their near-death experience, and their possible against-all-odds resurgence. The “quants” have become the masters of the Wall Street universe, although their grip on power has grown precarious due to their role in setting off a chain of events that nearly destroyed the world’s financial markets.
THE QUANTS profiles the incredible upward ascent of four of the quant elite’s most swashbuckling figures—Peter Muller, Ken Griffin, Cliff Asness, and Boaz Weinstein—men who believed that a dizzying, indecipherable-to-mere-mortals cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets. These men also created a digitized money-trading machine that could shift billions around the globe with the click of a mouse. For a while it seemed as though they’d continue earning gargantuan paydays forever. Then came the day the numbers turned against them. . . .
Drawing on unprecedented access to these four number-crunching titans, Patterson tells the inside story of what these men felt in the days and weeks when they helplessly watched much of their net worth vaporize—and wondered just how their mind-bending formulas and genius-level IQ’s had led them so wrong, so fast. Had their years of success been dumb luck, a good run that could come to an end on any given day? What if the Truth they sought—the secret of the markets—wasn’t knowable? Worse, what if there wasn’t any Truth?
Leia mais: /http://crownpublishing.com/2010/01/12/press-release-the-quants-by-scott-patterson/
backgrounder: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aMRiMr8h44tg

Moeda e o Estado Nacional - O papel de instituições monetárias em provocar crises

MONEY AND THE NATION STATE
The Financial Revolution, Government and the World Monetary System
Edited by Kevin Dowd, Richard H. Timberlake, Jr.
Foreword by Merton H. Miller

Are monetary and banking problems due to a few misguided policies or incompetent managers? Or are there fundamental flaws in monetary and financial institutions, principally central banks and the legal and monetary frameworks that accompany them? In this comprehensive book, seventeen distinguished scholars examine the history of modern monetary and banking arrangements, their major problems, and possible reforms. They also explore how political interference in monetary institutions has undermined economic stability and prosperity and produced international conflict as a by-product. They show how monetary nationalism—the promotion of the monetary goals of the nation state—necessarily invites economic discoordination because it interferes with the equilibrating operation of market forces. The authors also outline the reforms necessary to create monetary, financial, and banking systems free of the episodic inflation, devaluation, debt crises, and exchange rate volatility that have plagued the twentieth century. This book is an invaluable resource for scholars, students, policy makers, business leaders, and everyone interested in economic progress. Detailed Summary

O orçamento americano fora do controle

Economia com humor

Um musical "rap" sobre as teorias econômicas de Keynes contra Hayek. Legendado em português (depois um minuto dentro do filme quando começa o rap). Aproveite em  forma divertida aprender sobre a macroeconomia.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XjcAO_doUY

Premio do Conselho Federal de Economia

Resultado do XII Prêmio Sergipe de Economia
XII PRÊMIO SERGIPE DE ECONOMIA PROF. JOSÉ ALOÍSIO DE CAMPOS - 2009

1º LUGAR: PREMIAÇÃO - R$ 1.500,00
VENCEDOR: Klebson Santana de Oliveira
TEMA:Economia do crime: análise da distribuição espacial dos homicídios nos municípios sergipanos;
ORIENTADOR: Prof. Dr. Marco Antonio Jorge

2º LUGAR: PREMIAÇÃO - R$ 1.000,00
VENCEDOR: Glaudson dos Santos Melo
TEMA: O papel da taxa selic na política monetária do regime de metas de inflação no período entre 1999 e 2007;
ORIENTADOR: Prof. Dr. Antony P. Mueller

3º LUGAR: PREMIAÇÃO - R$500,00
VENCEDORA: Tássia Vanessa dos Santos Castro
TEMA: O spread bancário brasileiro: sua evolução e relação com o volume de crédito no período entre 1999 a 2007;
ORIENTADOR: Prof. Dr. Marco Antonio Jorge
4º LUGAR: MENÇÃO HONROSA
VENCEDOR: Rodrigo Melo Góis
TEMA: Capacidade financeira do município de Aracaju (1998-2006);
ORIENTADOR: Prof. Dr. Wagner Nóbrega

5º LUGAR: MENÇÃO HONROSA
VENCEDORA: Hilbério Santos Silva
TEMA: Sistemas Agro-florestais e de desenvolvimento agrícola familiar: um estudo de caso sobre o projeto policultura no semi-árido, pólo de Umburanas/BA;
ORIENTADOR: Prof. Dr. Olívio Alberto Teixeira

COORDENADORA:
Econ. Adenísia Carvalho de A. Vasconcelos
COMISSÃO JULGADORA:
Prof. MSc. Betânia da Costa Leite
Prof. MSc. Dilson Menezes Barreto
Prof. MSc. Eurílio Pereira Santos Filho
REALIZAÇÃO:
Conselho Regional de Economia da 16ª Região; CORECON/SE
PATROCÍNIO:
Conselho Federal de Economia; COFECON
http://www.corecon-se.org.br/

1. Seminário sobre a Escola Austríaca no Brasil

PREPARE-SE PARA UM EVENTO INÉDITO NO BRASIL

Pela primeira vez na história, o Brasil terá um seminário exclusivo sobre a Escola Austríaca de Economia. De 11 a 12 de abril de 2010, no Hotel Sheraton, Porto Alegre receberá estudantes e profissionais de todo o país para discutirem os desafios da Ciência Econômica  no século XXI.

O I Seminário de Economia Austríaca é um evento realizado pelo Instituto Ludwig von Mises Brasil, associação voltada à produção e à disseminação de estudos econômicos e de ciências sociais que promovam os princípios de livre mercado e de uma sociedade livre.  O seminário reunirá, pela primeira vez na história do Brasil, os principais nomes da corrente econômica de livre mercado conhecida como Escola Austríaca ("EA").

Entre os palestrantes estarão alguns dos principais nomes da Escola Austríaca, como Lew Rockwell, Joseph Salerno, Mark Thornton, Tom Woods e Walter Block. Entre os nomes nacionais, Ubiratan Iorio, Rodrigo Constantino, Fábio Barbieri e Antony Mueller. Eles irão conversar com uma plateia de 300 pessoas composta por jovens profissionais, estudantes e interessados em economia e liberdade.

Os debates englobarão os princípios da EA aplicados aos principais temas econômicos da atualidade. O papel do Federal Reserve na atual crise econômica, os problemas gerados em decorrência das constantes intervenções de governos na economia, o cálculo econômico socialista, a privatização de ruas e estradas e a Teoria Austríaca dos Ciclos Econômicos (TACE), são alguns dos assuntos que serão discutidos durante o I Seminário de Economia Austríaca.
Não perca essa oportunidadede de interagir com os maiores nomes da Escola Austríaca de Economia!
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Inscreva-se

Mergulhando na dívida

Gastos do governo americano, dívida, juros e outros indicadores:

WASHINGTON (AP) --  Figures on US government spending and debt (last six digits are eliminated). The government's fiscal year runs Oct. 1 through Sept. 30.

Total public debt subject to limit Jan. 22                   12,245,872

Statutory debt limit                                                     12,394,000

Total public debt outstanding Jan. 22                         12,302,465

Operating balance Jan. 22                                               142,454

Interest fiscal year 2009                                                  383,365

Interest fiscal year 2008                                                  451,154

Deficit fiscal year 2009                                                1,417,121

Deficit fiscal year 2008                                                   454,798              

Receipts fiscal year 2009                                             2,104,613

Receipts fiscal year 2008                                             2,523,642

Outlays fiscal year 2009                                               3,521,734

Outlays fiscal year 2008                                               2,978,440

Gold assets in September                                                  11,041

Fonte

Veja aqui a explosão da dívida americana de um segundo por o outro

O retorno do dragão

O futuro da Bovespa decide a China. Mais cedo ou tarde a China vai provocar o collapso do real e da Bovespa:

"... Foreign inflows to Brazil totaled $28.7-billion in 2009. In order to defend the US-dollar from spiraling lower, the BoB bought $24-billion on the spot foreign exchange market. BoB rate cuts were also designed to cushion the dollar’s sharp slide against the Brazilian real. Yet in a virtuous cycle, sharply lower interest rates added more fuel to the Ballistic Brazilian Bovespa Index, which gained +80% last year. The US-dollar finally found support near 1.70-reals in the fourth quarter, after losing 30-percent.

China became Brazil’s top trading partner, displacing the US, which had been Brazil’s biggest trading partner since the 1930’s. Soybeans account for a third Brazil’s exports to China, iron ore 25%, and petroleum, 10-percent. Thus, faster growth in China, the world’s biggest importer of soybean and iron ore, boosted demand for Brazil’s commodities, and buoyed its trade surplus. China has been gobbling up US stocks of soybeans at a near-record pace, but new global supplies are weighing on prices.
Bumper crops from the United States and Argentina have knocked Chicago soybean futures about 10% lower in January. The USDA said global soy production for Brazil, the #2 producer, should increase to a record 65-million tons. Brazil’s soy exports hit a record high of 28.5-million tons in 2009. Argentina, the third-largest producer, should see production recover to 53-million tons, up 66% from last year. Weaker soybean prices could shrink Brazil’s trade surplus, and undermine its currency. Operators in the Emerging markets, such as Brazil’s Bovespa, are spooked by the prospect of a extended tightening campaign in China, especially if the ruling authorities live up to their threats to slow the M2 money supply to 17-percent. That could slow China’s growth rate towards 8% and weaken demand for key industrial commodities, such iron ore controlled by Brazil’s miner Vale-Rio-Doce and oil pumped by Petrobras, which together account for nearly 40% of the Bovespa’s weighting. Although Brazil is expected to hike its Selic rate this year, it might not support the Brazilian real against the US-dollar. Instead, a slide in the Brazilian and Chinese stock markets could ignite panic sales of Bovespa shares, which in turn, could snowball into the unwinding of US-dollar carry trades. As traders dump Bovespa shares, and repay US-dollar margin loans, the US-dollar could climb higher by default..."
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A orígem da crise financeira global - Tom Woods

Ten weeks on the New York Times bestseller list!
Click here for a FREE CHAPTER of Meltdown.
Click here to order from Amazon.
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Click here to order the audiobook.
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Click here for the Japanese translation (at Amazon Japan).
“A must-read. Writing with remarkable clarity and occasional mordant humor, Thomas Woods makes a compelling argument for a radical turn to the free market as the only way to prevent meltdowns from recurring.”
-Barron’s
Mais informações

Leia o livro

A orígem da crise financeira global - John Taylor

The author tells how unusually easy monetary policy helped set the crisis in motion, as interest rates at the Federal Reserve and several other central banks deviated from historical regularities. He explains monetary interaction with the subprime mortgage problem, showing how the use of these mortgages, especially the adjustable-rate variety, led to excessive risk taking. In the United States this was encouraged by government programs designed to promote home ownership, a worthwhile goal but overdone in retrospect. Looking ahead, the author suggests a set of principles to follow to prevent misguided actions and interventions in the future.
John B. Taylor is the Bowen H. and Janice Arthur McCoy Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University.
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Aquecimento global ou uma nova era de gelo?

The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years, say some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html#ixzz0dLiNWwco

China

Robert Fogel da Universidade de Chicago está pensando que China vai continuar crescer e em 2040 a economia chinesa vai alcançar um PIB de $ 123 trilhões: "In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country in 2040. Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth, according to my forecasts, China's share of global GDP -- 40 percent -- will dwarf that of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent) 30 years from now. This is what economic hegemony will look like... Leia mais

China cresce 10.7 % no último trimestre de 2009

Chinese economy at full steam
Adding to fears of overheating, China’s GDP in the fourth quarter was 10.7% higher than a year earlier, the country’s fastest quarterly growth in two years. The news increased speculation that China will raise its interest rates soon.

O crescimento do Estado

 O The Economist tem preocupações sobre o crescimento do tamanho dos governos. Leia mais

História de "sovereign defaults" - o não-pagamento da dívida externa de países

Sovereign defaults--when a country stops paying its bills--go in waves, often following global financial crises, wars or the boom-bust cycles of commodities. Some countries, like Spain and Austria, mend their ways; others, like Argentina, are repeat offenders. Leia mais: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0208/debt-recession-worldwide-finances-global-debt-bomb.html?boxes=Homepagemostpopular

Relação entre a massa monetária (M1) e a bolsa de valores (DAX)

Pode-se observar bem claramente como M1 (vermelho) corre em frente do DAX (azul).
Assim se vê que um fator dominante da bolsa de valores se encontra na liquidez. M1 em seu lugar existe em cash (notas) e depósitos bancários.
A tese adicional segue que o recente alta na bolsa e um reflexo da criação monetária.

O fim do capitalismo nos Estados Unidos

-- Layers of money managers that don't bear the brunt of losses but walk away with big payouts when things go well have turned the US economy to a type of "ersatz capitalism," Joseph Stiglitz, Columbia University professor and Nobel laureate, told CNBC Tuesday.

"An awful lot of people are not managing their own money," Stiglitz said. "In old-style 19th Century capitalism, I owned my company, I made a mistake, I bore the consequences."

"Today, (at) most of the big companies you have managers who, when things go well, walk off with a lot of money. When things go bad the shareholders bear the costs," he said.

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Even worse, those giving the money to the companies are entities like pension funds that are managing money on behalf of other people, so there are "layers and layers of agency costs," Stiglitz said.

It's a system where "you socialize the losses and privatize the gains," which is not capitalism, he said.

There's "moral hazard everywhere," he added.
Link

Calculadora da dívida

US debt clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Taxa de desemprego

Confusão estatística