Hoje, 9 de Setembro, tem aulas 17:00 - 19:00 para ambos grupos de Macro III
A semana que vem tem aulas na segunda. 13 de setembro.
O reste da semana não tem aulas porque estou no congresso em La Jolla, California.
As aulas que faltam vamos recuparar com encontros marcados.
Para recursos e aulas online sobre crescimento econômico veja:
http://continentaleconomics.com/AulasOnlineCrescimentoEconomico.html
quinta-feira, 9 de setembro de 2010
quarta-feira, 8 de setembro de 2010
A nova forma de estudar - economia online
Principles of Economics
Econ101 — with Robert Murphy
COST: $250
LENGTH: TEN WEEKS
DATES: SEPTEMBER 8, 2010 - NOVEMBER 19, 2010
Robert Murphy will teach Principles of Economics in the Fall of 2010 , an online class for all ages that will use his forthcoming book Lessons for the Young Economist. (Professor Murphy discusses his plans for the course in the above video and in his article Learn Principles of Economics Online.) The class will run from September 8 until November 19, ten weeks of fantastic economics instruction from the ground up. His book, which is sure to become a standard text in the future, will be debuted in this class. Enrollment in the class is $250 and covers all materials, weekly lectures, office hours, quizzes, grading, and final exam. The class is designed for high school students, but it is the ideal class for gaining a solid foundation in economic science. The focus is on the Austrian understanding. The knowledge gained will establish a rock-solid basis for all future studies in economics. The goal is to present economics in the same way that it was given to Mises, Hayek, and Rothbard early in their schooling, a paradigm to inspire a lifetime of understanding and scholarship.No prior exposure to economic logic is required. Students may opt out of quizzes, tests, and grading.
He will cover: Thinking Like an Economist, How We Develop Economic Principles, Economic Concepts Implied by Action, "Robinson Crusoe" Economics, The Institution of Private Property, Direct Exchange & Barter Prices, Indirect Exchange and the Appearance of Money, The Division of Labor & Specialization, Entrepreneurship & Competition, Income, Saving, and Investment, Supply & Demand, Interest, Credit, and Debt, Profit & Loss Accounting, The Stock Market, The Failures of Socialism—Theory and History.
The weekly live video-broadcast lectures will be Wednesdays from 7:30 – 9:00pm EDT. Professor Murphy will lecture for 1 hour, and then take questions for 30 minutes.
Also every week Professor Murphy will hold “office hours” (extended question-and-answer sessions) which will be every Saturday from 11am – 2pm EDT, with a 15-minute intermission. Office Hour attendance is NOT required, and students may drop in and out as they please.
Mais informações
Econ101 — with Robert Murphy
COST: $250
LENGTH: TEN WEEKS
DATES: SEPTEMBER 8, 2010 - NOVEMBER 19, 2010
Robert Murphy will teach Principles of Economics in the Fall of 2010 , an online class for all ages that will use his forthcoming book Lessons for the Young Economist. (Professor Murphy discusses his plans for the course in the above video and in his article Learn Principles of Economics Online.) The class will run from September 8 until November 19, ten weeks of fantastic economics instruction from the ground up. His book, which is sure to become a standard text in the future, will be debuted in this class. Enrollment in the class is $250 and covers all materials, weekly lectures, office hours, quizzes, grading, and final exam. The class is designed for high school students, but it is the ideal class for gaining a solid foundation in economic science. The focus is on the Austrian understanding. The knowledge gained will establish a rock-solid basis for all future studies in economics. The goal is to present economics in the same way that it was given to Mises, Hayek, and Rothbard early in their schooling, a paradigm to inspire a lifetime of understanding and scholarship.No prior exposure to economic logic is required. Students may opt out of quizzes, tests, and grading.
He will cover: Thinking Like an Economist, How We Develop Economic Principles, Economic Concepts Implied by Action, "Robinson Crusoe" Economics, The Institution of Private Property, Direct Exchange & Barter Prices, Indirect Exchange and the Appearance of Money, The Division of Labor & Specialization, Entrepreneurship & Competition, Income, Saving, and Investment, Supply & Demand, Interest, Credit, and Debt, Profit & Loss Accounting, The Stock Market, The Failures of Socialism—Theory and History.
The weekly live video-broadcast lectures will be Wednesdays from 7:30 – 9:00pm EDT. Professor Murphy will lecture for 1 hour, and then take questions for 30 minutes.
Also every week Professor Murphy will hold “office hours” (extended question-and-answer sessions) which will be every Saturday from 11am – 2pm EDT, with a 15-minute intermission. Office Hour attendance is NOT required, and students may drop in and out as they please.
Mais informações
domingo, 5 de setembro de 2010
Crescimento econômico do Brasil
O crescimento acima do esperado no 2.º trimestre colocou em dúvida o argumento do Banco Central (BC) de que a economia brasileira estaria em processo desaceleração. Para analistas, o dado mostrou que o País continua se expandindo fortemente - ainda que em ritmo inferior ao do 1.º trimestre - e deixou claro que o BC assumiu um risco muito alto ao interromper o ciclo de alta da taxa básica de juros (Selic). A favor do BC pesa o fato de a inflação nos últimos 12 meses estar bem próxima da meta de 4,5%.
Leia mais
Pontos de reflexão:
- quais são as causas do forte crescimento?
- tem dúvidas da sustenabilidade? Sim - quais?
- consequencias para a taxa de inflação e atuação do Banco Central
- relação com o setor externo
- tem explicações em termos da teoria de crescimento econômico?
Leia mais
Pontos de reflexão:
- quais são as causas do forte crescimento?
- tem dúvidas da sustenabilidade? Sim - quais?
- consequencias para a taxa de inflação e atuação do Banco Central
- relação com o setor externo
- tem explicações em termos da teoria de crescimento econômico?
sexta-feira, 3 de setembro de 2010
Crescimento econômico - comentário do Banco Central
-- Brazilian central bank President Henrique Meirelles said he’s “comfortable” with the current pace of economic growth, adding that expansion will slow to a level consistent with long-term equilibrium.
Meirelles said gross domestic product will expand an average 0.7 percent over the next two quarters, after the national statistics agency today said it rose 1.2 percent in the second quarter. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected growth to slow to 0.7 percent in the second quarter from the first three months of 2010, according to the median of 41 forecasts.
“The central bank is comfortable with this growth, which is absolutely in line with predictions,” Meirelles told reporters today in Brasilia. “We expect, looking ahead, moderate growth in the third and fourth quarters, leading to a level of economic growth around its long-term equilibrium rate.”
On an annual basis, GDP expanded 8.8 percent in the second quarter, pushed by a 26.5 percent jump in investment that was the biggest on record, the statistics agency said. --
Leia mais
Meirelles said gross domestic product will expand an average 0.7 percent over the next two quarters, after the national statistics agency today said it rose 1.2 percent in the second quarter. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected growth to slow to 0.7 percent in the second quarter from the first three months of 2010, according to the median of 41 forecasts.
“The central bank is comfortable with this growth, which is absolutely in line with predictions,” Meirelles told reporters today in Brasilia. “We expect, looking ahead, moderate growth in the third and fourth quarters, leading to a level of economic growth around its long-term equilibrium rate.”
On an annual basis, GDP expanded 8.8 percent in the second quarter, pushed by a 26.5 percent jump in investment that was the biggest on record, the statistics agency said. --
Leia mais
Crescimento econômico
Por AE, estadao.com.br, Atualizado: 3/9/2010 8:57
IBGE: PIB do 2º trimestre cresce 1,2% ante 1º trimestre
A economia brasileira cresceu 1,2% no segundo trimestre deste ano, na comparação com o primeiro trimestre, informou hoje o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Em relação ao mesmo período de 2009, o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do País subiu 8,8% entre abril e junho deste ano. No primeiro semestre, a economia cresceu 8,9% em relação ao mesmo período do ano passado e, no acumulado dos 12 meses encerrados em junho, houve alta de 5,1%.
O resultado do PIB representa a produção de bens e serviços em todo o País. Considerando os setores, o PIB da indústria apresentou expansão de 1,9% no segundo trimestre deste ano em relação ao trimestre anterior. Na mesma base de comparação, o PIB da agropecuária registrou alta de 2,1%, enquanto o PIB do setor de serviços teve alta de 1,2%. No primeiro trimestre de 2010, a economia havia crescido 2,7% em relação ao trimestre anterior.
Fonte
IBGE: PIB do 2º trimestre cresce 1,2% ante 1º trimestre
A economia brasileira cresceu 1,2% no segundo trimestre deste ano, na comparação com o primeiro trimestre, informou hoje o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Em relação ao mesmo período de 2009, o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do País subiu 8,8% entre abril e junho deste ano. No primeiro semestre, a economia cresceu 8,9% em relação ao mesmo período do ano passado e, no acumulado dos 12 meses encerrados em junho, houve alta de 5,1%.
O resultado do PIB representa a produção de bens e serviços em todo o País. Considerando os setores, o PIB da indústria apresentou expansão de 1,9% no segundo trimestre deste ano em relação ao trimestre anterior. Na mesma base de comparação, o PIB da agropecuária registrou alta de 2,1%, enquanto o PIB do setor de serviços teve alta de 1,2%. No primeiro trimestre de 2010, a economia havia crescido 2,7% em relação ao trimestre anterior.
Fonte
Crise financeira
http://vimeo.com/14406518
quinta-feira, 2 de setembro de 2010
A armadilha brasileira
Brazil's Dilemma
Brazil's economy has lifted 30 million people out of poverty since 2003. Brazil's political culture, however, has made little progress: the political establishment is still mired in cronyism, and voters still cling to the counterproductive policies of the Workers' Party, according to Alvaro Vargas Llosa, editor of Lessons from the Poor and author of Liberty for Latin America.
"Brazilian leaders have long had an 'anti-American' complex," writes Vargas Llosa. "The obsession makes them do things simply because they seem in opposition." Dilma Rousseff, the leading candidate in October's presidential election in October, is no exception.
Some scholars believe that Brazil's statist economic policies originated partly as a reaction to a perceived rejection by the United States. But if Brazilians wish to improve their country, they would do better by embracing an even older tradition--the one that the Baron of Rio Branco, Jose Maria da Silva Paranhos, pioneered in the early 20th century. Adopting this tradition, Vargas Llosa suggests, would enable Brazil's political institutions to keep pace with its fast-growing economy.
"Brazil's Third World Dilemma," by Alvaro Vargas Llosa (8/25/10) Spanish Translation
Liberty for Latin America: How to Undo Five Hundred Years of State Oppression, by Alvaro Vargas Llosa
The Che Guevara Myth and the Future of Liberty, by Alvaro Vargas Llosa
Lessons from the Poor: Triumph of the Entrepreneurial Spirit, edited by Alvaro Vargas
quarta-feira, 1 de setembro de 2010
O Brasil vai ruinar a sua riqueza mais uma vez?
Escreve Chris Mayer:
Brazil Screws Up
Dear Capital & Crisis Reader,
Brazilian agriculture looked set to become the breadbasket of the world in the 21st century. It seemed to have everything. Lots of flatland. Plenty of water and sunshine. Already, Brazil is a big exporter of a long list of agricultural items.
I guess Brazil can't stand prosperity, because it just screwed it all up.
The implications will echo far beyond the borders of Brazil. It will have an impact on the world's future food supply and on food prices. And it also raises broader questions about investing in Brazil at all.
On Tuesday, the Brazilian government released new rules -- "immediately binding" -- that restrict foreign ownership of Brazilian land. Worse, the legal rules are so unclear that all such acquisitions since 1988 could be null and void, with the land returned to nationals. Some political groups are saying this is exactly what should be done.
The mainstream papers seem to treat this latter possibility as unlikely. And more moderate political groups also say such a drastic step is unlikely. But I can tell you from talking to people down there in the last few days -- including attorneys -- that local businesspeople are not dismissing that possibility. At best, Brazil is in legal limbo on these questions.
Blame politics. It is an election year in Brazil. The country will vote for a new president on Oct. 3. All indications are that it will be Dilma Rousseff. She is one of the ones who have been highly critical of foreigners buying Brazilian land. "Brazilian land for Brazilians" is the chant.
And there have been a lot of foreigners buying. I wrote to you before about a project in the cerrado that turns scrubland into productive farmland. The economics are very compelling. You get a 100%-plus return in three-four years without leverage using a proven 40-year-old process.
Other folks started to figure this out, too. A group in Hong Kong -- backed by Jacob Rothschild and a pair of Hong Kong tycoons -- raised $179 million to do just what I described in my newsletter. This company, Agrifirma, planned an IPO next year. Then just this month, Macquarie announced a plan to raise as much as $600 million to invest in Brazilian farmland.
There is lots of land in Brazil. The country could double the amount of land under cultivation -- something no other large country could plausibly do. The land is also cheap and potentially very productive. Brazilians can harvest two crops a year, for instance. All these investors are doing the same math. Buy the land. Improve the land. Boom: big returns only a few years later.
Many foreigners are already there. By some estimates, foreigners own or control about 20% of Brazil's cane production. Estimates for some other crops are even higher. Good estimates are tough to come by because many do business through a Brazilian company, even though foreigners own and control it. This is the loophole the government closed with Tuesday's bombshell of an announcement.
In any event, the new rules will freeze agricultural investment in Brazil. This is big news for global food markets because Brazil was such a key part of the equation. Brazil, as I've pointed out, is the world's arable land bank. This is where we'd get the added food supply the world needs.
As Reuters points out, "Brazil's essential role as a provider of food for the world's expanding population is at risk... There are simply no large-scale alternatives to Brazil's unique agriculture potential."
Brazil can't do it alone. Getting the arable land Brazil has to production is a process that takes significant investment and time. Foreigners brought the needed capital. In April alone -- the latest data are available -- foreign investment in Brazilian agriculture was $26 million -- up 225% from a year ago. Between 2002-2008, foreign investors poured nearly $2.5 billion into land alone.
Foreign money also brought the expertise of large-scale and modern farming techniques. Their investment creates jobs for Brazilians. They pay taxes. They raise the value of Brazilian lands. A recent study said that farmland values had increased 54-70% over the last three years in frontier regions.
And of course, foreign money brought more food to the world. What did Brazilians do with Brazilian land before? Nothing. It sat there. And the country was poor and backward.
It looks like Brazil is pining for the old days. Governments are "pathologically stupid," as my friend Doug Casey likes to say. So perhaps this shouldn't be a surprise. Nonetheless, I am always amazed at how readily politicians are so quick to kill the golden geese. (The U.S. government is, sadly, no different.)
It is ominous, too, that this announcement comes during the same year as massive drought sweeps across Europe, killing off crops of all kinds -- but especially Russia's wheat harvest.
Add to that this trend -- in the words of the Financial Times -- "Beijing buys unusually large amounts of corn, soya and rice on the market." Yes, China is now importing corn, and prices in China are at record levels. Soybean imports are double what they were only five years ago. China will import more grain this year than any year since its own crop failures in 1995. It will import about 1 million tonnes, up from only .05 million tonnes last year. --
Chris Mayer: Capital & Crisis, Aug 27, 2010
Brazil Screws Up
Dear Capital & Crisis Reader,
Brazilian agriculture looked set to become the breadbasket of the world in the 21st century. It seemed to have everything. Lots of flatland. Plenty of water and sunshine. Already, Brazil is a big exporter of a long list of agricultural items.
I guess Brazil can't stand prosperity, because it just screwed it all up.
The implications will echo far beyond the borders of Brazil. It will have an impact on the world's future food supply and on food prices. And it also raises broader questions about investing in Brazil at all.
On Tuesday, the Brazilian government released new rules -- "immediately binding" -- that restrict foreign ownership of Brazilian land. Worse, the legal rules are so unclear that all such acquisitions since 1988 could be null and void, with the land returned to nationals. Some political groups are saying this is exactly what should be done.
The mainstream papers seem to treat this latter possibility as unlikely. And more moderate political groups also say such a drastic step is unlikely. But I can tell you from talking to people down there in the last few days -- including attorneys -- that local businesspeople are not dismissing that possibility. At best, Brazil is in legal limbo on these questions.
Blame politics. It is an election year in Brazil. The country will vote for a new president on Oct. 3. All indications are that it will be Dilma Rousseff. She is one of the ones who have been highly critical of foreigners buying Brazilian land. "Brazilian land for Brazilians" is the chant.
And there have been a lot of foreigners buying. I wrote to you before about a project in the cerrado that turns scrubland into productive farmland. The economics are very compelling. You get a 100%-plus return in three-four years without leverage using a proven 40-year-old process.
Other folks started to figure this out, too. A group in Hong Kong -- backed by Jacob Rothschild and a pair of Hong Kong tycoons -- raised $179 million to do just what I described in my newsletter. This company, Agrifirma, planned an IPO next year. Then just this month, Macquarie announced a plan to raise as much as $600 million to invest in Brazilian farmland.
There is lots of land in Brazil. The country could double the amount of land under cultivation -- something no other large country could plausibly do. The land is also cheap and potentially very productive. Brazilians can harvest two crops a year, for instance. All these investors are doing the same math. Buy the land. Improve the land. Boom: big returns only a few years later.
Many foreigners are already there. By some estimates, foreigners own or control about 20% of Brazil's cane production. Estimates for some other crops are even higher. Good estimates are tough to come by because many do business through a Brazilian company, even though foreigners own and control it. This is the loophole the government closed with Tuesday's bombshell of an announcement.
In any event, the new rules will freeze agricultural investment in Brazil. This is big news for global food markets because Brazil was such a key part of the equation. Brazil, as I've pointed out, is the world's arable land bank. This is where we'd get the added food supply the world needs.
As Reuters points out, "Brazil's essential role as a provider of food for the world's expanding population is at risk... There are simply no large-scale alternatives to Brazil's unique agriculture potential."
Brazil can't do it alone. Getting the arable land Brazil has to production is a process that takes significant investment and time. Foreigners brought the needed capital. In April alone -- the latest data are available -- foreign investment in Brazilian agriculture was $26 million -- up 225% from a year ago. Between 2002-2008, foreign investors poured nearly $2.5 billion into land alone.
Foreign money also brought the expertise of large-scale and modern farming techniques. Their investment creates jobs for Brazilians. They pay taxes. They raise the value of Brazilian lands. A recent study said that farmland values had increased 54-70% over the last three years in frontier regions.
And of course, foreign money brought more food to the world. What did Brazilians do with Brazilian land before? Nothing. It sat there. And the country was poor and backward.
It looks like Brazil is pining for the old days. Governments are "pathologically stupid," as my friend Doug Casey likes to say. So perhaps this shouldn't be a surprise. Nonetheless, I am always amazed at how readily politicians are so quick to kill the golden geese. (The U.S. government is, sadly, no different.)
It is ominous, too, that this announcement comes during the same year as massive drought sweeps across Europe, killing off crops of all kinds -- but especially Russia's wheat harvest.
Add to that this trend -- in the words of the Financial Times -- "Beijing buys unusually large amounts of corn, soya and rice on the market." Yes, China is now importing corn, and prices in China are at record levels. Soybean imports are double what they were only five years ago. China will import more grain this year than any year since its own crop failures in 1995. It will import about 1 million tonnes, up from only .05 million tonnes last year. --
Chris Mayer: Capital & Crisis, Aug 27, 2010
Política monetária
Veja estas informações do Banco Central Europeu explicando didacticamente a meta monetária e a política monetária:
Desenhos animados sobre política monetária
Desenhos animados sobre política monetária
Prosperidade
"The three pillars on which prosperity is built are sound money, fiscal restraint and free trade."
Antony Mueller
Antony Mueller
terça-feira, 31 de agosto de 2010
O "capitalismo" americano, o "comunismo" chinês e o "socialismo" brasileiro
Mais de 50 milhões Americanos estão no programa "Medicaid" - o programa de pagar os custos de saúde para os pobre; O progama "Medicare" vai explodir com o aumento dos velhos nas próximas décadas.
a maior empresa do mundo é o militar Americano;
a industria de automóveis nos Estdos Unidos é praticamente estadizado, igual como o setor financeiro.
Note que estas observações estão tendências recentes. A prognóstica das consequências é obvia. O governo Americano fala "capalismo" é pratica socialismo. Os Chineses falam "comunismo" é praticam capitalismo quase puro. O governo brasileiro anuncia "socialismo" e pratica livre mercado.
More than 50 million Americans are on Medicaid, the federal-state program aimed principally at the poor, a survey of state data by USA TODAY shows. That's up at least 17% since the recession began in December 2007…
USA Today,
"... More than 40 million people get food stamps, an increase of nearly 50% during the economic downturn, according to government data through May. The program has grown steadily for three years…
Close to 10 million receive unemployment insurance, nearly four times the number from 2007. Benefits have been extended by Congress eight times beyond the basic 26-week program, enabling the long-term unemployed to get up to 99 weeks of benefits. Caseloads peaked at nearly 12 million in January —…
More than 4.4 million people are on welfare, an 18% increase during the recession…
As caseloads for all the programs have soared, so have costs. The federal price tag for Medicaid has jumped 36% in two years, to $273 billion. Jobless benefits have soared from $43 billion to $160 billion. The food stamps program has risen 80%, to $70 billion. Welfare is up 24%, to $22 billion. Taken together, they cost more than Medicare.
sexta-feira, 27 de agosto de 2010
Crescimento econômico
Podcasts e mais recursos
- Crescimento econômico na perspectiva histórica
- Crescimento econômico - capital e trabalho
- Acumulação de capital - o papel da poupança
- Determinantes e definições do crescimento econômico
- A regra de ouro do crescimento econômico
- Progresso tecnológico e crescimento econômico
- Crescimento Econômico - Revisão
- Crescimento Econômico Fórmulas básicas
- Crescimento Econômico: Introdução
- Determinantes Macroeconômicos do Crescimento Econômico
- Inovação, Capital e Empreendorismo
- Crescimento Econômico no Contexto Macroeconômico
- Crescimento Econômico Resumo
http://continentaleconomics.com/AulasOnlineCrescimentoEconomico.html
- Crescimento econômico na perspectiva histórica
- Crescimento econômico - capital e trabalho
- Acumulação de capital - o papel da poupança
- Determinantes e definições do crescimento econômico
- A regra de ouro do crescimento econômico
- Progresso tecnológico e crescimento econômico
- Crescimento Econômico - Revisão
- Crescimento Econômico Fórmulas básicas
- Crescimento Econômico: Introdução
- Determinantes Macroeconômicos do Crescimento Econômico
- Inovação, Capital e Empreendorismo
- Crescimento Econômico no Contexto Macroeconômico
- Crescimento Econômico Resumo
http://continentaleconomics.com/AulasOnlineCrescimentoEconomico.html
quinta-feira, 26 de agosto de 2010
Mueller on youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gUGfR4b_ew
sobre a política de "estimular" a economia com mais gastos -- e das tristes consequências de estas políticas.
sobre a política de "estimular" a economia com mais gastos -- e das tristes consequências de estas políticas.
segunda-feira, 23 de agosto de 2010
Macro III
Primeira parte: Crescimento econômico, cápítulos 10, 11, 12, 13 do livro de Blanchard "Macroeconomia"
Macroeconomia, Traducao da 2 Edicao Americana, Teoria e Politica Economica (Edicao Especial)
Mais edições:
Macroeconomia
MACROECONOMIA 4ED
Edições em espanhol
Pack Macroeconomia - Teoria y Politica Con Aplicacion En America Latina (Spanish Edition)
Macroeconomia, Traducao da 2 Edicao Americana, Teoria e Politica Economica (Edicao Especial)
Mais edições:
Macroeconomia
MACROECONOMIA 4ED
Edições em espanhol
Pack Macroeconomia - Teoria y Politica Con Aplicacion En America Latina (Spanish Edition)
Recursos para Macro III
Materiais para Crescimento Econômico:
http://continentaleconomics.com/AulasOnlineCrescimentoEconomico.html
Crescimento econômico -Formulas básicas
http://continentaleconomics.com/AulasOnlineCrescimentoEconomico.html
Crescimento econômico -Formulas básicas
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