quinta-feira, 22 de novembro de 2012

Discussão sobre "Why Nations Fail"


Acemoglu/Robinson:

"Several people asked us why we haven’t responded to Jeffrey Sachs’s review of Why Nations Fail in Foreign Affairs. Well the answer was sort of in-between the lines in our response to Arvind Subramanian review (the original review is here and our response is here): we said that thoughtful reviews deserve thoughtful answers. What about not-so-thoughtful ones?. --

Desenvolvimentismo brasileiro


Diogo Costa: ".. O Brasil nunca escapou totalmente da mentalidade desenvolvimentista. Na última campanha presidencial, o candidato do PSDB contava e repetia sua política industrial para o Brasil. Iria tomar as rédeas da economia nas próprias mãos para guiá-la rumo a sua grande visão de desenvolvimento nacional. Derrotado o candidato, mas não a ideia, hoje o BNDES vem batendo recordes de empréstimos para escolher as indústrias que devem tornar o Brasil a grande economia industrial do futuro.
A não ser que nosso futuro esteja no século XIX, é melhor nos acostumarmos com uma era em que a prosperidade não está na capacidade industrial de uma economia, mas em sua capacidade de descobrir suas próprias vantagens comparativas.
Não é fácil desfazer a mentalidade desenvolvimentista. Os alunos já chegam com ela na faculdade, e não se desapegam com argumentos que mostram como a ideologia de desenvolvimentismo industrial é a praga dos países subdesenvolvidos...."
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Aleatoriedade, probabilidade e incerteza

Randomness, probability and uncertainty

Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder. By Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Random House; 519 pages; $30. Allen Lane; £25. 


WHAT is the opposite of fragility? Though not quite right, “resilience” and “robustness” are two words that come to mind. If fragility means something that breaks under stress, its exact opposite should mean something that grows stronger under pressure. There is no word that quite captures this, says Nassim Nicholas Taleb, an American essayist and scholar, so he has invented one: “antifragile”.
That, after all, is what nature does. Evolution is a system for turning random mutations to lasting advantage. The body responds well to certain pressures; the bones in the racquet-holding arm of professional tennis players are stronger than those in the other arm, for example.
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Inflação


quarta-feira, 21 de novembro de 2012

Mais sobre Coase

Coase on the Economists

Ronald Coase has a short piece in the December 2012 Harvard Business Review, “Saving Economics from the Economists” (thanks to Geoff Manne for the tip). Not bad for a fellow about to turn 102! I always learn from Coase, even when I don’t fully agree. Here Coase decries the irrelevance of contemporary economic theory, condemning economics for “giving up the real-world economy as its subject matter.” He also provides a killer quote: “Economics thus becomes a convenient instrument the state uses to manage the economy, rather than a tool the public turns to for enlightenment about how the economy operates.”
Sounds like parts of neoclassical economics, and describes Keynesian macroeconomics perfectly! But Coase seems to reject economic theorizing altogether, even the “causal-realist” approach popular in these parts. To be useful, he argues, economics should provide practical guidance for the businessperson. However, “[s]ince economics offers little in the way of practical insight, managers and entrepreneurs depend on their own business acumen, personal judgment, and rules of thumb in making decisions.”
Well, that sounds about right to me. Economics provides general principles, or laws, about human action, mostly stated as “if-then” propositions. Applying the principles to concrete, historical cases requires Verstehen, and is the task of economic historians (as analysts) and entrepreneurs (as actors), not economic theorists. Deductive theory does not replace thymology or judgment. Without deductive theory, however, we’d have no principles to apply, and nothing to contribute to our understanding of the economy except — to quote Coase’s own critique of the Old Institutionalists — “a mass of descriptive material waiting for a theory, or a fire.” To be sure, Coase’s own inductive method has led to several brilliant insights. Coase himself has a knack for intuiting general principles from concrete cases (e.g., theorizing about transaction costs from observing automobile plants, or about property rights from studying the history of spectrum allocation), though not perfectly. But, as I noted before, Coase himself is probably the exception that proves the rule — namely that induction is a mess.
Fonte

A ciência econômica no caminho errado

Saving Economics from the Economists

by Ronald Coase
Economics as currently presented in textbooks and taught in the classroom does not have much to do with business management, and still less with entrepreneurship. The degree to which economics is isolated from the ordinary business of life is extraordinary and unfortunate.
That was not the case in the past. When modern economics was born, Adam Smith envisioned it as a study of the “nature and causes of the wealth of nations.” His seminal work, The Wealth of Nations, was widely read by businessmen, even though Smith disparaged them quite bluntly for their greed, shortsightedness, and other defects. The book also stirred up and guided debates among politicians on trade and other economic policies. The academic community in those days was small, and economists had to appeal to a broad audience. Even at the turn of the 20th century, Alfred Marshall managed to keep economics as “both a study of wealth and a branch of the study of man.” Economics remained relevant to industrialists.
In the 20th century, economics consolidated as a profession; economists could afford to write exclusively for one another. At the same time, the field experienced a paradigm shift, gradually identifying itself as a theoretical approach of economization and giving up the real-world economy as its subject matter. Today, production is marginalized in economics, and the paradigmatic question is a rather static one of resource allocation. The tools used by economists to analyze business firms are too abstract and speculative to offer any guidance to entrepreneurs and managers in their constant struggle to bring novel products to consumers at low cost.
The degree to which economics is isolated from the ordinary business of life is extraordinary and unfortunate.
This separation of economics from the working economy has severely damaged both the business community and the academic discipline. Since economics offers little in the way of practical insight, managers and entrepreneurs depend on their own business acumen, personal judgment, and rules of thumb in making decisions. In times of crisis, when business leaders lose their self-confidence, they often look to political power to fill the void. Government is increasingly seen as the ultimate solution to tough economic problems, from innovation to employment.
Economics thus becomes a convenient instrument the state uses to manage the economy, rather than a tool the public turns to for enlightenment about how the economy operates. But because it is no longer firmly grounded in systematic empirical investigation of the working of the economy, it is hardly up to the task. During most of human history, households and tribes largely lived on their own subsistence economy; their connections to one another and the outside world were tenuous and intermittent. This changed completely with the rise of the commercial society. Today, a modern market economy with its ever-finer division of labor depends on a constantly expanding network of trade. It requires an intricate web of social institutions to coordinate the working of markets and firms across various boundaries. At a time when the modern economy is becoming increasingly institutions-intensive, the reduction of economics to price theory is troubling enough. It is suicidal for the field to slide into a hard science of choice, ignoring the influences of society, history, culture, and politics on the working of the economy.
It is time to reengage the severely impoverished field of economics with the economy. Market economies springing up in China, India, Africa, and elsewhere herald a new era of entrepreneurship, and with it unprecedented opportunities for economists to study how the market economy gains its resilience in societies with cultural, institutional, and organizational diversities. But knowledge will come only if economics can be reoriented to the study of man as he is and the economic system as it actually exists.
Ronald Coase is a Nobel laureate in economics and a professor emeritus at the University of Chicago Law School. He is launching a new journal, Man and the Economy, with Ning Wang of Arizona State University, who contributed to this column.
Fonte

Crescimento econômico com taxas extremas (+ e -)


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Eficiência do sistema de impostos na perspectiva global


Recursos para pesquisa econômica

EXHAUSTIVE LISTS OF LINKS TO ECONOMICS SITES
Dr. T's Econlinks - a complete list of economic internet sites
Resources for Economists on the Internet -another complete list of sites
Economics Search- a good place to begin an internet search
Inomics- another search engine with a job page
Internet Public Library - reference library on all aspects of economics
New York Times Business sites - links to business and economics sites used by the NYT

CURRENT ECONOMIC INFORMATION

The Dismal Scientist - great site for current perspectives on the economy
Economics Mining Co. -many interesting current event articles
The Economist Magazine -the standard in economic information
Economic Report to the President-the most current economic data
Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economic Network - web site by prof. economist with lots of current economic and financial data
CPI Calculation Machine - interactive site calculates changes in prices and discussed how the CPI is calculated

HISTORICAL AND GOVERNMENT DATA

Economic Graph Maker- great place for charts and graphs
Gvt. Information Sharing Project- nice place to begin when searching for gvt. data
Federal statistics- another nice place to begin when searching for gvt. data
Bureau of Economic Analysis - issues survey of current business (dept. of commerence)
White House briefing room -current press releases
US Census Bureau - census data and lots of it
Bureau of Labor Statistics -specializing in macro data
U.S. Department of Labor - information about labor laws, trends, and labor data
Social Security Administration -social security data
CIA Publications - big providers of international data
Energy Information Administration - energy information

FEDERAL RESERVE AND MONETARY DATA

Board of Govenors of the Federal Reserve - links to all 12 Fed banks
New York Federal Reserve - principle Federal reserve banks
Federal Reserve Board (FRED) Database - excellent source for historical monetary data
Current Conditions in the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (Beige Book) - current economic information on regions in the U.S.
Central Banks of the World - Web site for referencing information on all the central banks of the world

FISCAL POLICY AND FEDERAL BUDGET

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities - budget think-tank
Public Debt - data on U.S. debt
Tax Wire - forum on tax related issues
U.S. Treasury - gvt. internet site

FINANCIAL DATA

Citibank Site - some of this site is pay-per-use
CNN Financial Network - lots of free financial information
Quicken Financial Network- much of this is pay-per-use

INTERNATIONAL DATA

Penn World Data Tables - great site for getting international macro data
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) - data and information on economic development
International Trade Administration - U.S. international trade data
Institute for International Economics - research institute devoted to economic policy
Global Financial Crisis Homepage - excellent site to get data on current economic crises, especially the Asian financial crisis
International Monetary Fund - current information regarding the IMF
World Trade Organization - WTO facilitates international trade among its members
European Union - a look at the EU and EU-US relations
North American Free Trade Association - homepage of NAFTA
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development - UNCTAD homepage
Sustainable Development Organization - think tank for sustainable development
World Policy Institute - organization that focuses on core international policy issues

BUSINESS CYCLE DATA

Business Cycle Indicators - 256 data series used as business cycle indicators
Economic Cycle Research Institute - business cycle forecasting institute

INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY DATA

Survey of U.S. Families - cross-sectional survey data
General Social Survey - social and economic data
Insitute for Research on Poverty - data on income distribution and poverty

VARIOUS DATABASES OF INTEREST

Data Surfing - links to various social science databases
Dr. B's WWW Data - data by various topic
Econometrics Databases - exhaustive list of databases at UC Berkley
Statistical Resources on Web - list of databases at U of Michigan

ECONOMIC ORGANIZATIONS

Job Openings for Economists - place to begin to look for a job in economics
National Bureau of Economic Research Home Page - premier economics research organization

CURRENT ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Economics Working Paper Archive - on-line site to download free research
Econbase- Economic Journals Search - search Elsevier publishing's journals
Economics Journals on the Web - another site to look for current working papers
Social Science Research Network - current research across all of the social sciences

ECONOMIC EDUCATION

Amos World- economic education web site
Fairmodel- a site that contains a large-scale macro model for analysis
MBA Lectures in Macro - Roubini and Backus lectures at NYU

Crescimento econômico na perspectiva histórica


Há um consenso entre os historiadores econômicos acerca das principais evoluções econômicas ao longo dos últimos 2.000 anos:
§Do fim do Império Romano até aproximadamente o ano 1500 não houve basicamente nenhum crescimento do produto per capita na Europa.
§Entre 1500 e 1700, o crescimento do produto per capita tornou-se positivo, em torno de 0,1% ao ano.
§Mesmo durante a Revolução Industrial, as taxas de crescimento não eram altas de acordo com os padrões atuais.
§Na escala da história humana, o crescimento do produto per capita é um fenômeno recente.
Fonte: Blanchard, Macroeconomia, cap. 10

Crescimento econômico - uma previsão

Jeremy Grantham's US Economic Growth Forecast Through 2050 Is The Most Depressing Forecast You'll Ever See

He writes that US economic growth will be less than 1 percent for the next 40 years.  This is in contrast to the above 3 percent growth the economy has experienced for as long as we can remember.
People take Grantham seriously because he predicted bubbles in Japanese stocks in 1989, U.S. stocks in 2000, and most risk assets in 2007.
In his words: 
The U.S. GDP growth rate that we have become accustomed to for over a hundred years – in excess of 3% a year – is not just hiding behind temporary setbacks.  It is gone forever. Yet most business people (and the Fed) assume that economic growth will recover to its old rates.
Going forward, GDP growth (conventionally measured) for the U.S. is likely to be about only 1.4% a year, and adjusted growth about 0.9%.
...
The bottom line for U.S. real growth, according to our forecast, is 0.9% a year through 2030, decreasing to 0.4% from 2030 to 2050 (see table on Page 16). This is all done presuming no unexpected disasters, but also no heroics, just normal “muddling through.
Here are some of the reasons he cites for low future growth:


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/jeremy-grantham-us-growth-forecast-2012-11#ixzz2CrgCEa7V

Sistema monetário internacional - o choque Nixon


Lembrem-se do Choque Nixon

Por ·21/11/2012·
Em 1971 o presidente americano Richard Nixon, dois anos após sua eleição, declarava o fim da convertibilidade do dólar em ouro. Estudar o episódio, conhecido como Choque Nixon, é essencial para a compreensão das crises econômicas que o sucederam, servindo também como exemplo dos problemas que políticas fiscais e monetárias irresponsáveis, como as que são hoje adotadas pela maior parte das nações, mas em particular pelos EUA e pelo Reino Unido, produzirão mais cedo ou mais tarde...
O cancelamento unilateral da convertibilidade do dólar em ouro pelos EUA foi sentença de morte para o sistema de Bretton Woods, e criou pela primeira vez na história uma economia global baseada predominantemente numa única moeda sem lastro (fiduciária), o dólar. Os abusos monetários que causaram a queda de Bretton Woods tornaram-se ainda mais frequentes após o fim do sistema, como exemplificado pelo significativo aumento da inflação visto no gráfico abaixo (índice de preços ao consumidor) após 1971:
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Descumprimento da meta fiscal



Governo formaliza previsão de descumprir meta fiscal em 2012

GUSTAVO PATU
DE BRASÍLIA

O governo Dilma Rousseff formalizou nesta terça-feira (20) a previsão de descumprimento da meta para o resultado das contas do Tesouro Nacional e abriu caminho para fechar o ano com o maior patamar de despesas da história.
Em documento, o Ministério do Planejamento reduziu de R$ 97 bilhões para R$ 71,4 bilhões a estimativa para o superavit primário --a parcela das receitas poupada para o abatimento da dívida pública-- do governo federal.
Com isso, a despesa total esperada para o ano subiu, em só dois meses, de R$ 817,4 bilhões para R$ 842,4 bilhões, equivalentes a 18,8% do PIB (Produto Interno Bruto). O recorde anterior, de 17,7%, foi contabilizado em 2009.
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Brasil - os maiores obstáculos contra o crescimento econômico


Conferência sobre a economia de cerveja



Maior edifício em 3 meses


Maior edifício do mundo será construído em apenas 3 meses
Chineses devem concluir obras de prédio com 220 andares em março do ano que vem.
Por Maria Luciana Rincon Y Tamanini
Leia mais em: http://www.tecmundo.com.br/mega-curioso/32882-maior-edificio-do-mundo-sera-construido-em-apenas-3-meses.htm#ixzz2Cr1zY57J
De acordo com uma notícia publicada pelo site ConstructionWeekOnline, a construção do que deverá se tornar o edifício mais alto do mundo — com 220 andares e inacreditáveis 838 metros de altura — será iniciada no ano que vem. E concluída em apenas 90 dias!
Segundo a publicação, o cronograma das obras do Sky City, que será localizado nas margens do rio Xiangjiang na cidade de Changsha, na China, prevê a construção de cinco andares por dia. O segredo de tamanha rapidez será a utilização de um sistema de pré-fabricados modulares desenvolvido pelo grupo chinês Broad Group.


Leia mais em: http://www.tecmundo.com.br/mega-curioso/32882-maior-edificio-do-mundo-sera-construido-em-apenas-3-meses.htm#ixzz2Cr1lqDbt

Mulheres e o progresso econômico na América Latina


Women key to Latin America economic progress

By Stephanie Leutert, CFR
Editor's note: Stephanie Leutert is a research associate at the Council on Foreign Relations. This entry of Latin America's Moment originally appeared here. The views expressed are her own.
Over the last decade, poverty, and inequality have fallen throughout Latin America. Behind these positive trends are external factors, such as high global commodity prices and substantial foreign direct investment flows. And there are also internal influences, such as Latin America’s growing middle class, increased consumption, and successful government-run conditional cash transfers (which offer money to low income families who keep their kids healthy and in school). But another, less talked, about factor moving the region toward greater economic development is the millions of Latin American women in the workforce.
According to an August 2012 World Bank report, Latin American women have been responsible for 30 percent of the region’s extreme poverty reduction over the past decade, as a result of their increased workforce participation and higher earnings. Women’s income has had an even greater effect on the lowest rungs of the socioeconomic ladder, reducing the severity of poverty more than twice as effectively as men’s earnings. And, as in other places, the global economic downturn hit men’s incomes the hardest. In response, Latin American women picked up the slack, resulting in more than half of 2009’s poverty reduction.
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terça-feira, 20 de novembro de 2012

Moody's rebaixa França


Ministro francês lamenta perda da nota AAA e mantém previsão de crescimento


O ministro francês da Economia, Pierre Moscovici, lamentou nesta terça-feira a decisão da agência de classificação financeira Moody's de rebaixar a nota de solvência financeira da França, mas insistiu na manutenção de uma perspectiva de crescimento de 0,80% para 2013.
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BNDES financia projeto de semicondutores


BNDES vira sócio de Eike e banca fábrica de chip

Governo vira sócio e banca fábrica de semicondutores de Eike Batista
Autor(es): MÔNICA CIARELLI
O Estado de S. Paulo - 20/11/2012
Após seis meses de adiamento, o projeto do governo de construção de fábrica de semicondutores foi anunciado oficialmente ontem e terá mais da metade do investimento - de R$ 1 bilhão - vinda do BNDES. A Six Semicondutores, empresa do grupo Eike Batista, receberá R$ 245 milhões do banco para garantir uma fatia de 33% na sociedade, além de financiamento de R$ 267 milhões
BNDES será responsável por mais da metade do investimento de R$ 1 bilhão da Six Semicondutores, que será erguida em Minas Gerais

Depois de mais seis meses de adiamentos, o projeto do governo de construção de uma fábrica de semicondutores no País foi anunciado ontem oficialmente. A Six Semicondutores, a mais nova empresa do grupo de Eike Batista, saiu do papel com uma forte ajuda do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES), responsável por mais da metade do investimento de R$ 1 bilhão.
Além de entrar com R$ 245 milhões para garantir uma fatia de 33% na sociedade, o banco ainda aprovou financiamento de R$ 267 milhões para a nova fábrica, que será construída no município de Ribeirão das Neves, em Minas Gerais, na Região Metropolitana de Belo Horizonte. Outro empurrão do governo veio na forma de financiamento da estatal Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos (Finep), que liberou à Six uma linha de empréstimo de R$ 202 milhões.
A nova fábrica, que tem previsão de começar a produzir em 2014, tem como sócios, além do BNDES e de Eike Batista (que também terá 33%), o Banco de Desenvolvimento de Minas Gerais (BDMG), a americana IBM e a Matec Investimentos e Tecnologia Infinita, do ex-presidente da Volkswagen do Brasil Wolfgang Sauer.
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Fatos e interpretações