Estados Unidos: resgates financeiros do governo e do banco central

Balanço do Banco Central dos Estados Unidos

Agenda

25 de Novembro: Prova 2 Macro I 26 de Novembro: Prova 2 Fundamentos de Economia 27 de Novembro: Palestra de Prof. Dr. Antony Mueller: "De Bush à Obama. Continuidade e Ruptura da Política Econômica dos Estados Unidos" DID 2 - Programa de Doutorado em Sociologia 19 - 20 horas 02 de Dezembro: Prova 2 Economia Monetária

Novos Podcasts - Fundamentos de Economia

Conceitos básicos IV - Mercados e Estado Análise de Demanda e Oferta Teoria de Preços Análise de Mercados Impactos de Intervenções Governamentais Controle de Preços Análise de Problemas Macroeconômicos Problemas do Intervencionismo Revisão Mercados, Preço, Estado LINK: http://continentaleconomics.com/OnlineCampus.html

Macro I - Prova 2 - Resumo

PROF. DR. ANTONY MUELLER UFS RESUMO PROVA II ANÁLISE MACROECONÔMICA Terça, 25 de Novembro 2008 Tema: Mercado de bens, Cruz keynesiana, Mercado financeiro 1. Mercado de bens Demanda total: Z = C + I + G + EX – IM Demanda total para uma economia fechada com governo Z = C + I + G Função de consumo C = f (Yd) Yd = Y – T Equilíbrio: Z = Y Função de consumo (tipo Keynes) C = c0 + c1Yd ou C = c0 + c1(Y – T) → Z = c0 + c1(Y – T) + I + G = Y Derivando o multiplicador Y = c0 + c1Y – c1T + I + G (veja acima) Y – c1Y = c0 + I + G – c1T Y(1-c1) = c0 + I + G – c1T Y = 1/(1-c1) [c0 + I + G – c1T] [c0 + I + G – c1T] representam gastos autônomos (não dependem do produto) 1/(1-c1) é o “multiplicador” que multiplica o gasto autônomo Nota ( com c1 = c) 0 < c < 1 c + s = 1 c = propensão marginal de consumo s = propensão marginal de poupança maior c, maior o multiplicador maior s, menor o multiplicador com c = 0.6 1/(1-c) = 1/0.4 = 2.5 1 bilhão de gastos autônomos (demanda) se transforma em 2.5 bilhões de aumenta da renda dado a economia tem recursos subutilizados, i.e. se a economia está abaixa do pleno emprego. Seqüência keynesiana”: D → Q → R → D (J. M. Keynes) “Seqüência clássica”: Q → R → D → Q (J.B. Say) Nota: “Gap deflacionário” Y0 < YPE O equilíbrio macroeconômico (Y0) se instalou abaixo do pleno emprego (YPE) “Receita keynesiana”: Aumentar os gastos autônomos para fechar o “gap deflacionário” “Gap inflacionário” YE > YPE O equilíbrio e acima do pleno emprego (demanda demais) Receita keynesiana: Reduzir os gastos autônomos para fechar o “gap inflacionário” YPE = Demanda/renda/produto que segura pleno emprego YE = Renda de equilíbrio que não precisa ser necessariamente igual à renda de pleno emprego (YPE) O “paradoxo da poupança” S = Y – T – C = Y – T – c0 - c1 (Y – T) = - c0 + Y – T – c1Y + c1 T S = - c0 + (1 - c1) (Y – T) S = I I = SPR + (T –G) Análise de mercados financeiros Demanda por moeda Md = kY (Equação de Cambridge) Y = Yr P k = 1/V M = 1/V x Yr x P Transformer na equação quantitative da moeda → M x V = Yr x P (Equação de Fisher) Demanda por liquidez M = L (Y, i) Keynes Com L (i) como uma função decrescente da taxa de juros Oferta de moeda Com Ms (oferta) determinada por o Banco Central e L (demanda) dependente da renda (Y) e da taxa de juros (i) Multiplicador monetário m M = m x BP BP = N + R (a base monetária existe em notas em circulação e reservas bancárias) Com m = 1/r r = taxa de reservas r = R/D R = Ro + Rv As reservas bancárias existem em reservas obrigatórias (ou compulsórias) e em reservas voluntárias Veja modelo gráfico da determinação da taxa de juros (p. 64) Relação entre taxa de juros e o mercado financeiro i = (100 – PB)/PB PB = 100/(1 + i) Se o preço de debêntures (bonds) PB baixa, a taxa de juro implícita (i) vai aumentar e vice versa Se o banco central aumenta a taxa básica de juros (SELIC no Brasil, Federal Funds Rate nos Estados Unidos), os preços de debêntures (PB) em circulação vai cair e vice versa Operações do banco central: Comprar/vender títulos para afetar a massa monetária e a taxa de juros diretamente Aumentar/reduzir empréstimos para os bancos comerciais para afetar a massa monetária e a taxa de juros indiretamente Aumentar/reduzir a taxa de reservas obrigatórias (ro) para dar impulsos negativos ou positivos dos empréstimos bancários Aumenta “r”, causa c.p. baixar “m” e vice versa. (não confundir com o multiplicador da renda) O modelo keynesiano é um modelo de curto prazo o que significa que se refere a um período sem mudanças da capacidade.

America the Illiterate

"The core values of our open society, the ability to think for oneself, to draw independent conclusions, to express dissent when judgment and common sense indicate something is wrong, to be self-critical, to challenge authority, to understand historical facts, to separate truth from lies, to advocate for change and to acknowledge that there are other views, different ways of being, that are morally and socially acceptable, are dying. Obama used hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign funds to appeal to and manipulate this illiteracy and irrationalism to his advantage, but these forces will prove to be his most deadly nemesis once they collide with the awful reality that awaits us..." Chris Hedges: "America the Illiterate" http://www.rense.com/general84/amrr.htm

Novos podcasts

Teoria de Preços Análise de Mercados Problemas do Intervencionismo Impactos de Intervenções Governamentais Controle de Preços link: http://continentaleconomics.com/OnlineCampus.html

Balanço conta corrente (trimestral) Estados Unidos

Base monetária - Estados Unidos

Dívida pública na mão do banco central

Federal Funds Rate (taxa de juros básica)

Dívida pública Estados Unidos

M1 estoque monetário

Multiplicador monetário

MZM - Moeda zero maturidade

Crédito ao consumidor

Declaração final da cúpula G20

Folha de Sâo Paulo: "Na declaração final da Cúpula do G20, neste sábado em Washington (EUA), os líderes se comprometeram a realizar uma reforma dos mercados financeiros por maior transparência e regulação, e que promova uma maior integridade no sistema... No documento, os líderes do grupo --cujos países representam 85% da economia mundial-- se comprometem a aplicar medidas fiscais para estimular as economias nacionais, e lista seis áreas que devem ser priorizadas antes de 31 de março de 2009., além de reformar o FMI (Fundo Monetário Internacional)... Leia íntegra em inglês: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u468156.shtml

Cúpula G20

"... A capital dos Estados Unidos retornou neste domingo (16) à normalidade após a Cúpula do G20 (que reúne os países mais ricos e os principais emergentes), chamada de "histórica" por alguns participantes, mas na qual os observadores vêem, por enquanto, mais promessas que ações concretas... O jornal americano "The New York Times" destacou hoje que "embora as propostas tenham sido apresentadas ambiciosamente, refletem principalmente medidas que os países já tinham iniciado"..." http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u468342.shtml

Reforma do sistema financeiro internacional

Antony Mueller: Reforming the World's Financial Order. Institutional and Theoretical Aspects (2001) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Abstract Modern financial markets are characterized by rapid innovation and expansion as well as intensive internationalization. The liberalization of capital markets since the 1980s has been accompanied by a shift from structural regulations towards prudential supervision along with endeavors to establish international norms on capital adequacy. During the same period, the markets have been hit by a series of crises, which have caused concern that more strict and direct controls are warranted. This paper argues that although liberalized capital markets do in some way possess an inherent tendency towards instability, almost all cases of severe disturbances in the international capital markets are the result of excessively expansive fiscal and monetary policies, which at some point had to give way to a sharp liquidity contraction. In order to stabilize the system, the monetary and fiscal authorities quite often accelerated expansive measures, exposing investors, lenders and borrowers to misleading interest rate and price signals which resulted in a postponement of the adaptation process and in a number of cases to the prolongation of stagnation. Given the international integration of modern financial markets, misplaced monetary and fiscal policies cause various international spillover effects. Repeated bailouts of borrowers and creditors by central banks, governments and international institutions have led to the persistence of moral hazard as the assumption of implicit guarantees to stabilize financial markets has lowered the perception of risk and resulted in over-exposure. This analysis leads to the conclusion that while more strict regulations might be applied to off-balance financial innovations and that capital adequacy norms should be more strictly enforced on an international level, further direct control seems to bring more harm than good and deflect the attention from the causes of financial instability which are the inadequate control of liquidity." Fonte: http://www.iwp.uni-koeln.de/DE/Publikationen/zfw/1-01/mueller.htm Mueller: Reforming the World Financial Order. Institutional and Theoretical Aspects . In: Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 50 (2001), Nr. 1, pp. 15-34

Encontro G20

"... A cúpula que reunirá esta semana em Washington os chefes de Estado e de governo das principais economias do mundo visa a iniciar a reforma do sistema financeiro em mais de meio século, mas não produzirá mudanças imediatas, segundo os analistas..." Leia mais: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u467824.shtml Tarefa: Identifique as posições e intereses dos grupos e faz uma comparação com a posição e os interesses do Brasil.

Encontro G20

Ainda tem muitas diferenças entre os participantes: "...Europeans want universal banking regulations and broad changes in financial governance. The Bush administration stands opposed and Barack Obama, who is to replace Bush on Jan. 20, 2009, is considered likely to back increased stimulus spending and tougher national regulations but unlikely to agree to set up a global regulator... ...Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who also is acting president of the G20, echoed those concerns earlier this week, saying: "This situation means that we also think about change in multilateral institutions which have lost much of their representativeness in the last years." Nor is the G20 - admittedly more inclusive than the G8 - sufficiently representative to come up with solutions on behalf of the rest of the world. "Our way out has to be global," Lula told a news conference. Established in 1999, the G20 consists of the G8 - Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, and the United States - plus Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey, with the last slot taken by the European Union (EU) as a bloc." http://www.truthout.org/111408S Tarefa: Descreve qual é a posição do Brasil e mostre se é adequada para segurar um futuro próspero ou não.

Petrobras

"...Petrobras is already the biggest company in Brazil, with a market value of more than $240 billion, and it is the government's largest single taxpayer. It employs some 52,000 workers, but the new oil find has kindled optimism that new jobs and opportunities lay ahead, especially in the shipping industry in ports along the Atlantic coast... Last November, Petrobras announced its discovery of the Tupi field, which holds an estimated 5 to 8 billion barrels of oil. In September, the company said that the nearby Iara field holds up to 4 billion barrels. But analysts estimate that the region could contain up to 80 billion barrels, about the same as Venezuela. Brazil currently produces more than 2 million barrels a day. By 2015, that could increase to 3 million... When Petrobras began operations in 1954, it was producing just 2,700 barrels a day, less than 3 percent of the country's needs. Brazil remained a heavy crude importer over the next two decades, but the oil shock of the 1970s unfurled a technological fervor. Unlike Mexico, whose discovery of the Cantarell field in 1976 – one of the world's largest oil reserves – thrust it easily into oil exportation, most of Brazil's richest deposits were offshore. "We learned early that to be successful we had to have technological domain," says Carlos Tadeu da Costa Fraga, the executive manager of Cenpes, which was created in 1955 and today, with 2,000 employees, is the largest research center in Latin America. "In deep waters, we have much more experience than other countries in the world." In the 1970s, Petrobras developed equipment and techniques to pump oil that lay deeper than most other companies could reach at the time. And today a new task is at hand as Brazil gets set to tap its newest oil find, which sits at some of the deepest levels in the world – more than 7,000 meters under the ocean's surface. But investment in technology is only part of the story. In 1997, Brazilian lawmakers created a concession model, opening up what had been a monopoly to outsiders who compete with Petrobras on bidding and developing leases. Its shares have been publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange since 2000. The government owns the majority of voting shares, but today 70 percent of total equity is in the hands of private investors, making it much more responsive to global accounting standards and corporate governance..."-- Leia mais: http://www.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=Brazil+as+a+new+kind+of+oil+giant+|+csmonitor.com&expire=&urlID=32435054&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.csmonitor.com%2F2008%2F1114%2Fp01s04-woam.html&partnerID=309791

Encontro do G20

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- A two-day summit on the global economic crisis begins today in Washington with world leaders likely to agree on little more than trying to spend their way out of a global recession. The Group of 20 heads of state are divided on what needs to be done after that. European leaders are demanding greater state controls over financial markets. President George W. Bush, who hosts a dinner of his counterparts at the White House tonight, takes a narrower view..."-- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ahyQOB.59C8A&refer=news

Dívida pública

Quem faz parte do G20?

veja: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20_industrial_nations

BaCen: Novas regras para depósitos compulsórios

da Folha Online, em Brasília O Banco Central anunciou nesta quinta-feira uma nova mudança nos depósitos compulsórios para colocar mais dinheiro na economia. Será alterada a forma de recolhimento de cerca de R$ 40 bilhões, o que representa quase 20% de todo o compulsório depositado hoje no BC. A contração do crédito e a falta de liquidez (dinheiro em circulação) é o principal reflexo da crise financeira no Brasil. O compulsório adicional sobre depósitos à vista, a prazo e poupança (chamado pelo BC de "exigibilidade adicional"), que hoje é recolhido em espécie, passará a ser recolhido em títulos públicos a partir de 1º de dezembro. Veja as medidas já anunciadas no Brasil para combater os efeitos da crise 10 questões para entender o tremor na economia Entenda a evolução da crise que atinge a economia dos EUA ... http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u467232.shtml

Economia Monetária

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's National Monetary Council is allowing banks to use government bonds instead of cash to meet certain reserve requirements that total 40 billion reais ($17.5 billion) in a bid to increase liquidity...-- http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a9pAWVB5bv4g&refer=news

Mission impossible for Obama

O caminho de pobreza

- The financialization of the economy, moving from manufacturing to speculation; - Very high levels of debt; - Extreme economic inequality; - Costly military overreaching. Adopted from Kevin Phillips: "Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism" (2007)

O caminho de prosperidade

"Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice: all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things." Adam Smith Lecture in 1755, quoted by Dugald Stewart

O desafio de Obama

Fox business YouTube video: O que podemos esperar sob a nova presidência nos anos que vem? veja: http://heyokamagazine.com/heyoka.20.geraldcelente.htm As previsões de Gerald Celente: Os Estados Unidos vai se tornar numa nação "undevoloped" ("dedesenvolvida") com - tax revolt (rebelião contra imposts) - job marches (demonstrações trabalhistas - food riots (rebelião para comida) - squatter revolt (rebelião de pessoas sem moradia) Gerald Celente prevê um período de tempo pior que a grande depressão. Em vez de "we can" o novo governo vai realisar que "we can't". Os Estados Unidos vai entrar num declinio econômico geral. Até hoje os Estados Unidos ainda não estão preparado para este choque e continuam estar em um estado de negação, incluindo negar que já estamos numa forte recessão. Não vai ter mais um Natal como festa extrema de consumo.

Novos podcasts - Fundamentos de economia

Análise de Demanda e Oferta Teoria de Preços Análise de Mercados Problemas do Intervencionismo Link: http://continentaleconomics.com/OnlineCampus.html

Grandes caídas da bolsa de valores

Dados mercados emergentes

Taxas marginais de impostos durante a Grande Depressão

TAM

SÃO PAULO - A desvalorização do real perante o dólar também prejudicou o resultado trimestral da TAM. A companhia aérea voltou ao vermelho no terceiro trimestre, ao registrar prejuízo líquido de R$ 112,7 milhões. Segundo a empresa, essa perda reflete a queda de 4,1% do real ante o dólar e as perdas com operações de hedge de combustível. No mesmo intervalo de 2007, a TAM havia tido lucro de R$ 48,5 milhões...-- http://www.valoronline.com.br/ValorOnLine/MateriaCompleta.aspx?tit=TAM+perde+R$+112,7+milhões,+pressionada+por+valorização+do+dólar&codmateria=5255091&dtmateria=10+11+2008&codcategoria=12&tp=371237771

CSN

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Cia. Siderurgica Nacional, Brazil's third-biggest steelmaker, may post its first loss in six years after bets on its own stock soured last quarter. CSN, as the steelmaker is known, may say this week it had a third-quarter loss of 414 million reais ($192 million), compared with a profit of 699.2 million reais a year earlier... The Rio de Janeiro-based steelmaker held 1.98 billion reais of so-called total-return equity swaps tied to its American depositary receipts as of June 30, according to a company filing. CSN's bets that its ADRs would extend a five-year rally turned bad last quarter after commodity prices fell, sending the equities down 52 percent... CSN also took a hit after the Brazilian real plunged 16 percent in the quarter, boosting the size of its dollar- denominated debt in local-currency terms. The increased debt, coupled with expenses related to the bad stock bets, may lead to financial costs of 1.6 billion reais..." http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aLHsN.G887R8&refer=news

Petrobras

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, the investor darling among the world's largest oil companies in the first half of the year, has become the biggest loser. Petrobras, as Brazil's state-controlled oil producer is known, is the worst performer among the top 10 publicly traded oil companies since May. The stock dropped 53 percent on concern falling energy prices and the global credit crisis will block or delay efforts to tap the biggest offshore discovery in the Americas in three decades. Earnings growth will slow from 80 percent in the third quarter to 6.2 percent next year, according to the averages of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg..." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aexpVGrbff3c&refer=news

Conhecimentos errados

"The trouble with the world is not that people know too little, but that they know so many things that aren't true."--attributed to Mark Twain Easy answers are seldom correct ones. That principle seems to be at work as the nation struggles to discover the causes of the financial crisis now rocking the economy. Looking for a simple and politically convenient villain, many politicians have blamed deregulation by the Bush Administration. ... presidential candidate Barack Obama asserted in the second presidential debate that "the biggest problem in this whole process was the deregulation of the financial system." But there is one problem with this answer: Financial services were not deregulated during the Bush Administration. If there ever was an "era of deregulation" in the financial world, it ended long ago. And the changes made then are for the most part non-controversial today... A False Narrative. In the wake of the financial crisis gripping the nation, it is tempting to blame “deregulation” for triggering the problem. After all,if the meltdown were caused by the ill-advised elimination of necessary rules, the answer would be easy: Restore those rules. But that storyline is simply not true. Not only was there little deregulation of financial services during the Bush years, but most of the regulatory reforms achieved in earlier years mitigated,rather than contributed to, the crisis. http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/upload/wm_2109.pdf

G 20

"O G20 financeiro --que congrega ministros de Economia e presidentes de bancos centrais das grandes economias desenvolvidas e emergentes-- se reúne todos os anos desde 1999. Neste ano, diante da conjuntura internacional, o foco é a crise financeira iniciada nos EUA que se alastrou pelo mundo... Juntos, os países membros representam cerca de 90% do produto nacional bruto mundial, 80% do comércio internacional e cerca de dois terços da população do planeta..." http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u465626.shtml

Brasil no mundo

"... Unlike North Americans and Europeans, Latin Americans aren't particularly keen on the idea of acting in haste, planning ahead or worrying too much about the future. They have grown accustomed to dealing with the unlikely, the implausible, the unpredictable and uncontrollable, such as the exact timing of a real-estate bubble bursting, the overnight collapse of financial institutions considered too big to fail or the defeat of a financial rescue package. Like doctors in the Amazon -- who don't have all the tools, never know what the ambulance will bring and treat the patient anyway -- Latin Americans have learned to react fast to unimaginable, unforeseen occurrences... Likewise, Obama would profit if he backs and carries on President George W. Bush's initiative to invite Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and other leaders of emerging-market economies to join the Group of Seven nations to discuss measures to weather the global financial storm. After his decisive victory on Nov. 4, Obama now has to learn to dance through crisis. Latin Americans can give him useful insights about this new rhythm. It will require creativity, flexibility and spontaneity. The quicker he learns the samba and salsa, the sooner we will all go back to listening to some soothing bossa nova." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aYvV3gyUnGbE&refer=columnist_marinis

Crise chega à Brasil

--"JUST a few months ago, Brazil’s economy was growing at its fastest pace since the mid-1990s, driven by record commodity prices and record credit growth. The country’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, declared confidently that “Bush’s crisis” in the United States would not affect Brazil. It all looks very different now. Credit is becoming scarcer and banks more suspicious of each other..." -- http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12562273

Política cambial

SÃO PAULO - (Valor) -- "O Banco Central (BC) já injetou cerca de US$ 40 bilhões para irrigar o mercado de câmbio e, principalmente, o financiamento ao comércio exterior. As vendas no mercado à vista somaram até ontem US$ 5,1 bilhões em recursos das reservas internacionais..." http://www.valoronline.com.br/ValorOnLine/MateriaCompleta.aspx?tit=BC+já+injetou+cerca+de+US$+40+bilhões+no+mercado&codmateria=5251243&dtmateria=06+11+2008&codcategoria=10&tp=766239954

Política fiscal

"Em menos de dez anos a carga tributária deixou o patamar de 25% da renda nacional, no qual havia se mantido por mais de duas décadas, e se aproxima da marca de 36%." - Gustavo Patu, em "A Escalada da Carga Tributária" Leia mais: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/publifolha/ult10037u432272.shtml

Video Lectures

1,468 visitas ¿Quién protege al consumidor? Milton Friedman 1979 3,883 visitas ¿Qué está mal en nuestras escuelas? Milton Friedman 1979 3,733 visitas La tiranía del control Milton Friedman 1979 4,300 visitas Anatomía de la crisis Milton Friedman 1979 3,213 visitas Adam Smith y la riqueza de las naciones Liberty Fund 1978

Video lectures de Milton Friedman

2,595 visitas Creados iguales Milton Friedman 1979 8,819 visitas El poder del mercado Milton Friedman 1979 5,695 visitas ¿Cómo curar la inflación? Milton Friedman 1979 3,847 visitas ¿Cómo permanecer libres? Milton Friedman 1979 4,766 visitas De la cuna a la tumba Milton Friedman 1979

"Yo, lápiz"

"Yo, lápiz". Milton Friedman sobre a divisão de trabalho, sobre a economia como processo cooperativo: http://www.newmedia.ufm.edu/gsm/index.php?title=Yo_l%C3%A1piz

Se precisa nova teoria econômica

Edmund Phelps, director of the Center on Capitalism and Society, Columbia University, who won the 2006 Nobel Prize for economics, writes: "What theory can we use to get us out of the impending slump quickly and reliably? To use the “new classical” theory of fluctuations begun at Chicago in the 1970s – the theory in which the “risk management” models are embedded – is unthinkable, since it is precisely the theory falsified by the asset price collapse. The thoughts of some have turned to John Maynard Keynes. His insights into uncertainty and speculation were deep. Yet his employment theory was problematic and the “Keynesian” policy solutions are questionable at best... At the end of his life Keynes wrote of “modernist stuff, gone wrong and turned sour and silly”. He told his friend Friedrich Hayek he intended to re-examine his theory in his next book. He would have moved on. The admiration we all have for Keynes’s fabulous contributions should not sway us from moving on. Lea mais: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/00a01b2e-aa87-11dd-897c-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

Especulação errada

"... A Embraer anunciou na noite de ontem que teve prejuízo de R$ 48,4 milhões no terceiro trimestre de 2008, contra lucro de R$ 306 milhões no mesmo período do ano passado e de R$ 176,3 milhões no segundo trimestre...." http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u463808.shtml

Especulação errada

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Aracruz Celulose SA, the world's biggest eucalyptus-pulp maker, reached an agreement with banks to unwind 97 percent of its wrong-way currency derivatives, leading to a loss of $2.13 billion. Banks will negotiate terms to restructure the debts stemming from the derivatives contracts by Nov. 30, Aracruz said today in a statement to Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios, Brazil's securities regulator. Aracruz didn't disclose which banks are part of the agreement..."-- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=asALFmUXJaPI&refer=news http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u463825.shtml

Argentina repatria investimentos

-- "O governo argentino fixou nesta segunda-feira um prazo de três dias para que os fundos privados de pensões repatriem investimentos milionários em outros países do Mercosul, a maior parte no Brasil. A medida tem o objetivo de estimular e financiar projetos na Argentina, frente à escassez de financiamento originado pela crise internacional. O vice-presidente da Comissão Nacional de Valores (CNV), Alejandro Vanoli, explicou que "basicamente são ações do Brasil" as que deverão ser repatriadas pelas Administradoras de Fundos de Aposentadorias e Pensões (AFJP). O prazo para repatriar esses investimentos foi fixado hoje em uma resolução do "Diário Oficial" do Estado. Vanoli detalhou que se trata de cerca de US$ 600 milhões (R$ 1,3 bilhão) que as AFJP tinham em ativos do Mercosul, bloco formado por Argentina, Brasil, Paraguai e Uruguai e que tem a Venezuela em processo de adesão..." http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u463565.shtml