Fundamentos de Economia

Prova III 17 de Dezembro 2008 Temas: A. Economia Monetária B. Política Econômica C. Crescimento Econômico A) Economia Monetária Funções da moeda Definição de moeda Moeda fiduciária Sistema bancário de reserva fracionária Dinheiro como o activo mais líquido Liquidez Meios de pagamentos Depósitos à vista (conta corrente) Reservas bancárias (voluntárias e compulsórias) taxa de reserva compulsória Multiplicador bancário dos depósitos Criação múltipla do depósito à vista Base monetária (BM) Função do Banco Central (produtor de notas, gerenciar política monetária) Criação de dinheiro por bancos comerciais (emprestimos) Demando por moeda Oferta de moeda taxa de juros B)Política Econômica Metas macroeconômicas (alta renda, alto nível de emprego, estabilidade monetária) Política: Política fiscal e política monetária Instrumentos: PF - Gastos do governo (G), impostos (T) PM - Taxa de juros (i), massa monetária (M) Política de estabilização (política conjuntural) Política econômica restritiva corrigir demanda excessiva: G-, T+, M-, i+ Política econômica expansiva corrigir demanda insuficiente: G+, T-, M+, i- Política de crescimento econômico (fortalecer a oferta) C) Crescimento Econômico Melhoria tecnológica invenção inovação poupança investimentos capital capital humana (educação, saúde) Melhoria institucional instituições jurídicas estabilidade política Condições básicas para lançar crescimento econômico (aumento da renda nacional ao longo prazo) garantia dos direitos de propriedade (property rights) estabilidade política (processo política previsivel) mercados competitivos (concorrência econômica) estabilidade monetária (moeda e preços, sistema financeiro) comércio livre (comércio internacional, abertura econômica) mercado de capitais aberto (fluxos de capital) Ausência de impostos com elevados alíquotas marginais A concorrência como método de descobrimento econômico (experimento econômico)num processo de imitação e com pioneiros

US taxa de juros à zero (0)

Macro I - estoques: produção sem vendas

"LONG BEACH, California (Reuters) – From pricey luxury sedans to popular hybrid cars, automobiles made overseas are stacking up at ports and parking lots around the United States as supplies far outstrip demand amid the nation's worst auto market in more than 25 years. At the Long Beach port near Los Angeles, Toyota Motor Corp vehicles including Prius hybrids, FJ Cruiser sport utility vehicles and Lexus IS 250 luxury sedans are being stored on a vast construction site that will one day be a new container terminal..." http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081207/us_nm/us_autos_ports Tarefa: Como este fenomeno se pode modelar na cruz keynesiana?

Moeda local

"...Residents from the Milwaukee neighborhoods of Riverwest and East Side are scheduled to meet Wednesday to discuss printing their own money. The idea is that the local cash could be used at neighborhood stores and businesses, thus encouraging local spending. The result, supporters hope, would be a bustling local economy, even as the rest of the nation deals with a recession... It's not a new concept—experts estimate there are at least 2,000 local currencies all over the world—but it is a practice that tends to burgeon during economic downturns. During the Great Depression, scores of communities relied on their own currencies. And it's completely legal..." http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-talk_moneydec03,0,2902061.story

Próximas provas

Fundamentos de Economia 17 de Dezembro Análise Macroeconômica 18 de Decembro

Taxa de desemprego Estados Unidos

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. companies slashed payrolls last month at the fastest pace in 34 years as the economy headed for its deepest and longest recession since World War II. Employers cut 533,000 jobs, bringing losses so far this year to 1.91 million, the Labor Department said today in Washington. November’s drop exceeded all 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent, the highest level since 1993...-- http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aLgwfpZSD.R0&refer=home

Como manipular a estadística

Jim Jubak: "... Most criticism of the official inflation number, the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, has focused on the statistical flimflam used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to calculate how fast prices are going up. Chief among these is a technique called hedonics. Starting in the 1990s, some economists and government statisticians began arguing that a $100 increase in the price of, say, a car wasn't really a $100 price increase if the power, safety features or general usefulness of the car improved substantially. If the subjective value of the car went up by $100, then, despite the increase in what you paid, according to the government, the price didn't go up at all. The objection to this kind of adjustment is that it introduces a huge amount of subjectivity into the process of calculating inflation. Determining the increased usefulness of a product or service requires a subjective judgment about the value of this or that feature. What is the extra horsepower of a car worth to a user? How about extra safety features? And to which user? And if the cost of a car went up by $100 even if it came with more and better features, wasn't the price still in reality $100 higher? Hedonic quality adjustments weren't the only statistical adjustments that the government made to the inflation numbers. Starting in 1983, the government also started to measure changes in the cost of housing by looking not at the cost of a house but at what an owner would get if he or she rented out that house. Since in a housing boom the price of houses rises about three times as fast as rents do, this change understated the rate of inflation. In the 1990s, the government also started to include substitution pricing in its inflation measure. In this adjustment, government statisticians assumed that if the price of something went up, people would use less and would substitute a less costly product or service. So when steak went up in price, consumers might buy more pork or chicken. Figuring out what substitution a consumer would make again added to the subjectivity of the inflation numbers. Including substitution destroyed the whole point of the exercise because it turned the government's shopping basket from an inflation measure to a set of lifestyle choices..." http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/fake-inflation-numbers-masked-crisis.aspx?page=all Veja tambem: http://www.mises.org/story/1873 Tarefa: Investigue as consequencias de um metodo de calculo que resulta em taxas de inflaçao mais baixas para outras indicadores econômicos, especialmente taxa de crescimento e produtividade.

Novos podcasts

"O que é a Moeda?" (15 Min) "Moeda e Bancos" "Moeda e a Taxa de Juros" Link: http://continentaleconomics.com/OnlineCampus.html

Base monetária US dólar

De Bush à Obama

Palestra de Prof. Antony Mueller "De Bush à Obama. Continuidade e Ruptura na Política Econômica dos Estados Unidos" 27 de Novembro de 2008 Programa de Doutorado em Sociologia Universidade Federal de Sergipe UFS Podcast: De Bush à Obama Data show: De Bush à Obama Link: http://continentaleconomics.com/OnlineCampus.html