segunda-feira, 30 de novembro de 2009

Macro III - Projeto de pesquisa

Bolsas:
Chamada Pública nº 26/2009 - Projeto "Acompanhamento e avaliação do impacto do PAC sobre a infraestrutura de transportes no Brasil"
Prazo de inscrição: 30/11/2009
Chamada Pública PNPD nº 026/2009

sábado, 28 de novembro de 2009

Dinâmica Macroeconômica - notas

As notas corrigidas por os trabalhos entregados estão no sistema. Verifique.
O nosso último encontro neste semestre vai ter lugar na segunda, 30 de Novembro, as 15 horas.

sexta-feira, 27 de novembro de 2009

Taxas de pobreza: China, India, Brasil


Por centos do povo com menos de $1.25 por dia em termos de poder de compra 2005.
Note também o coeficiente Gini que mede a desiqualdade: não mudou com 57.6 para o Brasil embargo a taxa de pobreza baixou.

Gestão da complexidade

"... we can learn to manage complex systems... But it demands humility. And I would add, along with humility, managing complex systems also demands the ability to admit we are wrong, and to change course. If you manage a complex system you will frequently, if not always, be wrong. You have to backtrack. You have to acknowledge error... And one other thing. If we want to manage complexity, we must eliminate fear. Fear may draw a television audience. It may generate cash for an advocacy group. It may support the legal profession. But fear paralyzes us. It freezes us. And we need to be flexible in our responses, as we move into a new era of managing complexity. So we have to stop responding to fear...--
Michael Crichton

Crise da dívida

A crise da dívida de Dubai vai diminuir o fluxo de capital aos países emergentes, incluindo o Brasil:
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai’s debt woes may worsen to become a “major sovereign default” that roils developing nations and cuts off capital flows to emerging markets, Bank of America Corp. said.

quarta-feira, 25 de novembro de 2009

Taxa de câmbio do real

O real é a moeda mais sobrevalorizada do mundo diz Goldman Sachs:
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s real is the “most overvalued” currency as a “wall of money” coming into Latin America’s biggest economy may overwhelm government efforts to curb its rally, said Goldman Sachs Group Inc....--
Fonte

segunda-feira, 23 de novembro de 2009

sexta-feira, 20 de novembro de 2009

Macro III - novo recurso para o trabalho

Fonte para o trabalho (graças à Rafael):
Uma excelente apresentação de Guido Mantega sobre o PAC

Dinâmica Macroeconômica - notas provisórias

Verifiquem as suas notas no portal - se tem dúvidas ou se quer falar sobre o trabalho, nosso próximo encontra vai ter lugar na segunda.
Os seguintes alunos não ten nota suficiente:
3131138
4134386
8130351
7130290
9130554
1130682
2130091
7130302
2130091
3131117
caso tem dúvidas escreve mail:
antonymueller@gmail.com

terça-feira, 17 de novembro de 2009

Index mundial de corrupção


CPI ranking mundial 2009
(com o Brasil na posição 75)

Macro III - recursos para o trabalho

Fontes principais do PAC (graças à Felipe)
Site oficial do programa
Medidas
Aspectos institucionais
Análise dos custos

Macro III - trabalho

O tema do trabalho é
"O PAC: Análise das metas e medidas do Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento e avaliação das consequências do plano"

Dinâmica Macroeconômica - trabalhos e plano

Tema do trabalho opcional com entrega até 26 de Novembro:
"A teoria de investimentos. Uma comparação das abordagens de Keynes, Kalecki e Schumpeter"
Ca. 3 páginas, max. 5 páginas
O que conta é:
- contextualização inteligente
- nitidez da análise (precisão)
- estrutura (lógica)
- uso da terminologia adequada
- apesentação didática (estilo)

Plano para o resto do semestre:
19. 11. - Prova de substituição
23. 11. - Entrega da notas provisorias (com publicação no sistema no 20 de Novembro)
            - Esclarar dúvidas caso que tem
26. 11. - Entrega dos trabalhos - determinação da nota final
30. 11. - Publicação das notas finais no sistema

sábado, 14 de novembro de 2009

Brasil! Brasil! - The Economist diz: o futuro chegou

"... Brazilians have learned to temper their optimism with caution—even now, when the country is enjoying probably its best moment since a group of Portuguese sailors (looking for India) washed up on its shores in 1500. Brazil has been democratic before, it has had economic growth before and it has had low inflation before. But it has never before sustained all three at the same time. If current trends hold (which is a big if), Brazil, with a population of 192m and growing fast, could be one of the world’s five biggest economies by the middle of this century, along with China, America, India and Japan..."
Leia mais no survey do The Economist sobre o Brasil.

quarta-feira, 11 de novembro de 2009

A atualidade de Schumpeter


Hoje, no Investor's Business Daily, foi publicado um artigo sobre a teoria de Schumpeter mostrando a atualidade da sua obra. É bem possível que no futuro ainda mais vai crescer a importância da teoria schumpeteriana para o pensamento econômico - talvez também no Brasil.

PIB ranking 2008 em US dólar


terça-feira, 10 de novembro de 2009

Minsky e Mises - abordagens para entender a crise

Reuters:
"When it comes to managing the business cycle, Keynesian and laissez faire economics have failed rather spectacularly, their prescriptions leading to increasingly violent bubbles and busts. For this reason there have been calls for a “new economics.” To get there, perhaps we just need to rediscover forgotten economists like Hyman Minsky and Ludwig von Mises..."
Leia mais sobre Minsky e Mises
Mais recursos: The Minsky Moment
Ludwig von Mises sobre Inflação e Deflação

segunda-feira, 9 de novembro de 2009

20. aniversário da queda do muro de Berlim


Festividades 9 de Novembro de 2009 em Berlim
20 anos depois a queda do muro
no 9 de Novembro de 1989
Background story

Dinâmica Macroeconômica - Prova

Nossa 3. prova vai ter lugar na quinta, 12 de Novembro.
O tema é: a teoria econômica dinâmica de Schumpeter
Para resumo veja Data Show
Podcasts: Schumpeter's teoria do
capitalismo e do desenvolvimento econômico

Schumpeter's teoria do capitalismo -

Schumpeter's teoria da inovação e do empreendedor -

Schumpeter's teoria do desenvolvimento econômico -

Schumpeter e a sua obra na perspectiva da realidade econômica de hoje
Link do Site

20 anos depois a queda do muro de Berlim

09/11/2009 - Potência econômica, Alemanha emerge da crise, mas ainda enfrenta desafios
Anne Dias
Do UOL Economia
Em São Paulo
A unificação da Alemanha foi -e ainda está sendo- uma grande prova de fogo. Unir os dois lados do país não significou apenas derrubar um muro de concreto em 1989. De acordo com o governo alemão, juntar duas Alemanhas tão diferentes custou cerca de € 1,56 trilhão (cerca de R$ 4 trilhões pelo câmbio atual) ao povo alemão.
Todo este dinheiro foi destinado à reconstrução da infraestrutura do país, principalmente da parte leste. Foi preciso reconstruir o sistema de saneamento básico, refazer calçadas e até ajudar financeiramente pequenas e médias empresas a abrir as portas.
"E esse custo ainda representa um peso para toda a economia alemã", diz o economista Antony Mueller, professor de macroeconomia na Universidade Federal de Sergipe...
Leia mais

Resultado da pesquisa de opinão sobre "capitalismo"


Fonte

sábado, 7 de novembro de 2009

O ciclo econômico - a teoria de Mises

No Wall Street Journal de ontem Mark Spitznagel explica bastante bem o ponto central da teoria de Ludwig von Mises sobre o ciclo econômico e a sua relevância para hoje:
"Ludwig von Mises was snubbed by economists world-wide as he warned of a credit crisis in the 1920s. We ignore the great Austrian at our peril today..."
Leia mais

sexta-feira, 6 de novembro de 2009

Dinâmica Macroeconômica - novos recursos

Data Show
Schumpeter's teoria dinâmica
do desenvolvimento
econômico

Podcast 
Schumpeter e a sua obra na perspectiva da realidade econômica de hoje
LINK DO SITE 
Nota:
Se você abre o blog com Mozilla Firefox, pode assistir imediatamente em "stream" o podcast. Se você abre com Internet Explorer precisa fazer um download (que demora). Neste caso é mais fácil usar o link para o site.

Estados Unidos: a taxa de desemprego continua subir

WASHINGTON – The unemployment rate has surpassed 10 percent for the first time since 1983 — and is likely to go higher. Nearly 16 million people can't find jobs even though the worst recession since the Great Depression has apparently ended. The Labor Department said Friday that the economy shed a net total of 190,000 jobs in October, less than the downwardly revised 219,000 lost in September. August job losses were also revised lower, to 154,000 from 201,000. But the loss of jobs last month exceeded economists' estimates. It's the 22nd straight month the U.S. economy has shed jobs, the longest on records dating back 70 years. Counting those who have settled for part-time jobs or stopped looking for work, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest on records dating from 1994...."
Leia mais

quinta-feira, 5 de novembro de 2009

O multiplicador keynesiano

link para nova literatura sobre o multiplicador keynesiano

Dinâmica Macroeconômica: Conferência da "Schumpeter Society" em 2010

A associação internacional "The Schumpeter Society" está organizando uma conferência sobre "Innovação, Organização, Sustentabilidade e Crises":

The International Joseph A. Schumpeter Society has more than 400 members from 40 countries. The Society publishes the Journal of Evolutionary Economics and awards the Schumpeter prize. Since the founding conference in 1986, the Society has held biannual open-call conferences. After Aalborg in 2010, the next conference will be held in Australia in 2012 at the University of Queensland. Examples of previous conferences are the 11th Schumpeter Conference in Nice (2006) and the 12th Schumpeter Conference in Rio de Janeiro (2008).

The 2010 Conference
As in the case of the previous Schumpeter Conferences, the 2010 Conference at Aalborg University serves as an opportunity for both established scholars and young researchers to present research that has a Schumpeterian perspective. The major topic of the 2010 conference is "Innovation, Organisation, Sustainability and Crises". But the conference more generally embraces micro-studies of the innovation, routine and selection as well as studies of the macro-problems of Schumpeterian growth and development as a process of "creative destruction". The broad range of issues implies that both economists, business economists, and other social scientists can contribute to the conference and that evidence may be provided by statistical and historical methods as well as other methods.
Leia mais

Macro III - análise da relação entre a expansão monetária e inflação - a situação atual

Keith Fitz-Gerald do Minyanville Investimentos explica:
"Everything we know about classic economic theory suggests the US economy should be experiencing Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation right now, thanks to the nearly $2.2 trillion the US Federal Reserve has pumped into the system.
But we’re not... yet.
Classic economic theory says that money supply can be used to stimulate the economy and our central bankers seem to agree. That’s why they’ve pumped more than $1 trillion dollars into the economy, engineered countless bailout bonanzas for zombie institutions, put Detroit on life support, and delivered a bunch of financial Band-Aids to the trauma ward -- all in a desperate bid to make Americans feel better about the global financial crisis.
To their way of thinking, the trillions of dollars have been a success. That’s why any meeting of the Group of Eight nations looks more like a mutual affection society with central bankers eager to claim credit and backslap each other in congratulations for having avoided the “Great Depression II.”
But by taking the Federal balance sheet to more than $2 trillion from $928 billion 2008, they’ve created a situation that should have resulted in an epic inflationary spike to accompany the 137% increase in liabilities.
Yet that hasn’t quite happened.
Core inflation -- which denotes consumer prices without food and energy costs -- has actually decreased from 2.5% in 2008 to 1.5% presently. And that has many investors who have heard the siren call of the doom, gloom, and boom crowd wondering if they’re worried about nothing.
So what gives?
Well, there are four reasons we haven’t yet seen hyperinflation:
1. Banks are hoarding cash.
Despite having received trillions of dollars in taxpayer-funded bailouts and lived through a litany of shotgun weddings designed to reinvigorate the shattered lending markets, most banks are actually hoarding cash.
So instead of lending money to consumers and businesses like they’re supposed to, banks have used taxpayer dollars to boost their reserves by nearly 20-fold, according to the Fed. The money the bailout was supposed to make available to the system is actually not passing “Go,” but rather getting stopped by the very institutions that are supposed to be lending it out.
Three-year average annualized loan growth rates were 9.6% before the crisis; now they are shrinking by 1.8%, according to Money magazine.
2. The United States exports inflation to China, which remains only too happy to continue to absorb it.
What this means is that low-priced products from China help keep prices down here. And this is critical to something that many in the “China-is-manipulating-their-currency” crowd fail to grasp. If China were to un-peg the yuan and let it rise by the 60% or more it’s supposedly undervalued by, we’d see a jump in prices here in everything from jeans to tennis shoes, toys, medical equipment, medicines, and anything else we import in bulk from China.
Chances are, the shift wouldn’t be dollar-for-dollar or even dollar-for-yuan, but there’s no doubt it would be significant. Many economists I’ve talked to privately think 25% to 35% is probable. So the next time you hear a “Buy American” extremist, you might want to share this little inconvenient truth.
Now, before I get a bunch of hate mail about this, let me just say I want to “Buy American” too. I’m all for supporting our native industry and our own domestic job markets. But in today’s world, “made anywhere” is really hard to do and even harder to support.
The interconnected nature of businesses and global manufacturing chains, not to mention the payment system, makes that nearly impossible. Granted, perhaps that’s part of the problem, but that’s a subject for another time. The lessons we learned in the 1930s are clear, and they must be acknowledged -- protectionism only makes matters worse, no matter how we feel about it personally.
3. Consumers are still cutting back.
Therefore, the spending that normally helps pull demand through the system is simply not there. I don’t know how things are in your neighborhood, but where I live, people are still cutting back.
Indeed, data from the US Department of Commerce and the Federal Reserve Board show that consumer spending growth averaged 1.4% a year prior to the crisis and is now shrinking at a rate of 0.7%. What this means is that people have figured out that it’s more important to save money than it is to spend it.
And, given that consumer spending makes up 70% or more of the US economy, this is a monumental change in behavior that all but banishes the last vestiges of the “greed is good” philosophy espoused by Michael Douglas as Wall Street pirate Gordon Gekko in 1987.
4. Businesses continue to cut back rather than hire new workers.
Therefore, wages and wage inflation figures are lower than they would be if the economy was truly healthy and the stimulus was working.
This is especially tough to stomach because it means people are still being marginalized, laid off, and “part-timed” instead of being hired. And that means that most of the earnings growth we’ve seen this season has come from expense reductions rather than top line sales growth -- and those are two very different things.
But while this is tough, it’s also helped keep inflation lower than it would otherwise be. Prior to the financial meltdown, job growth averaged about 1% a year over the last three years, now it’s falling by 4.2%.
The upshot?
Any one of these factors could change at any time. And that means investors who are relying on the Fed’s version that everything is okay and that the government is managing inflation may be in for a rude awakening.
The only thing the Fed is doing is managing to manipulate the data, and even then, not very well."
Fonte

domingo, 1 de novembro de 2009

Dinâmica macroeconômica: A vida das empresas


O Indice Dow Jones comencou em 1884 com estas empresas:
July 3, 1884 (Customer's Afternoon Letter, nine railroads, a steamship line, and one communications company)
Chicago & North Western
D. L. & W.
Lake Shore
New York Central
St. Paul
Northern Pacific pfd.
Union Pacific
Missouri Pacific
Louisville & Nashville
Pacific Mail (steamship)
Western Union (communications)

Em 1896 se criou o "All industrials":
May 26, 1896 (First all industrials list -- 12 stocks)
American Cotton Oil
American Sugar
American Tobacco
Chicago Gas
Distilling & Cattle Feeding
General Electric
Laclede Gas
National Lead
North American Company
Tennessee Coal & Iron
U.S. Leather pfd.
U.S. Rubber

Em 1999 tinha esta empresas:
Component Stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Effective November 1, 1999

Alcoa (NYSE: AA)
American Express (NYSE: AXP)
AT&T Corp. (NYSE: T)
Boeing (NYSE: BA)
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT)
Citigroup (NYSE: C)
Coca Cola (NYSE: KO)
Disney (NYSE: DIS)
DuPont (NYSE: DD)
Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK)
Exxon-Mobil (NYSE: XOM)
General Electric (NYSE: GE)
General Motors (NYSE: GM)
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HWP)
Home Depot (NYSE: HD)
Honeywell (NYSE: HON)
IBM (NYSE: IBM)
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)
International Paper (NYSE: IP)
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD)
Merck (NYSE: MRK)
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
MN Mining Manufacturing (3M) (NYSE: MMM)
Morgan JP (NYSE: JPM)
Philip Morris (NYSE: MO)
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)
SBC Communications (NYSE: SBC)
United Technologies (NYSE: UTX)
Walmart (NYSE: WMT)

 Empresas atualmente no Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

Companies included in the DJIA

The Dow Jones Industrial Average consists of the following 30 companies:[2]
Company  ↓ Symbol  ↓ Industry  ↓ Date Added  ↓
3M MMM Conglomerate 1976-08-09 1976-08-09 (as Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing)
Alcoa AA Aluminum 1959-06-01 1959-06-01 (as Aluminum Company of America)
American Express AXP Consumer finance 1982-08-30 1982-08-30
AT&T T Telecommunication 1999-11-01 1999-11-01 (as SBC Communications)
Bank of America BAC Banking 2008-02-19 2008-02-19
Boeing BA Aerospace and defense 1987-03-12 1987-03-12
Caterpillar CAT Construction and mining equipment 1991-05-06 1991-05-06
Chevron Corporation CVX Oil & gas 2008-02-19 2008-02-19
Cisco Systems CSCO Computer networking 2009-06-08 2009-06-08
Coca-Cola KO Beverages 1987-03-12 1987-03-12
DuPont DD Chemical industry 1935-11-20 1935-11-20 (also 1924-01-22 to 1925-08-31)
ExxonMobil XOM Oil & gas 1928-10-01 1928-10-01 (as Standard Oil)
General Electric GE Conglomerate 1907-11-07 1907-11-07
Hewlett-Packard HPQ Technology 1997-03-17 1997-03-17
The Home Depot HD Home improvement retailer 1999-11-01 1999-11-01
Intel INTC Semiconductors 1999-11-01 1999-11-01
IBM IBM Computers and technology 1979-06-29 1979-06-29
Johnson & Johnson JNJ Pharmaceuticals 1997-03-17 1997-03-17
JPMorgan Chase JPM Banking 1991-05-06 1991-05-06 (as J.P. Morgan & Company)
Kraft Foods KFT Food processing 2008-09-22 2008-09-22
McDonald's MCD Fast food 1985-10-30 1985-10-30
Merck MRK Pharmaceuticals 1979-06-29 1979-06-29
Microsoft MSFT Software 1999-11-01 1999-11-01
Pfizer PFE Pharmaceuticals 2004-04-08 2004-04-08
Procter & Gamble PG Consumer goods 1932-05-26 1932-05-26
Travelers TRV Insurance 2009-06-08 2009-06-08
United Technologies Corporation UTX Conglomerate 1939-03-14 1939-03-14 (as United Aircraft)
Verizon Communications VZ Telecommunication 2004-04-08 2004-04-08
Wal-Mart WMT Retail 1997-03-17 1997-03-17
Walt Disney DIS Broadcasting and entertainment 1991-05-06 1991-05-06