As melhoras cidades do mundo para morar

"In Mercer Consultings annual Quality of Living Survey, Europe once again dominates the list of 215 countries around the world. The top three cities are, by rank, Vienna, Zurich (last years winner), and Geneva. Commonwealth nations fare pretty well, too, winning 9 of the top 30 spots—even though London comes in only at 38. The U.S. also fares poorly, barely making it into the top 30 with Honolulu and San Francisco in the bottom two places. The top city in Asia is Singapore, at no. 26. No cities from Africa or South America are in the top 30. The bottom? Baghdad once again comes in at 215..." Leia mais: http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/04/0428_best_places_to_live/1.htm

Aula Economia Internacional 4a cancelada

Por causa de uma renunião departamental com prioridade não vai ter aula na Quarta, 29 de Abril na disciplina Economia Internacional. Como compensação, se precisa prepara o próximo tema da disciplina: Balanço de Pagamento. O texto já está na pasta no DID I. Quando aprender, procure entender os conceitos (como conta corrente, conta capital, etc.) e as tecnicas de contabilidade do BP.

Progresso tecnologico

Como aprendemos, o cescimento econômico, aumento da renda por capita, depende da taxa do progresso tecnologico. Porèm, não é fácil obter progresso tecnológico: "... 99.8% fail. Only 3,000 patents out of 1.5 million patents are commercially viable. “In truth, odds are stacked astronomically against inventors, and no marketing outfit can change them. ‘There are around 1.5 million patents in effect and in force in this country, and of those, maybe 3,000 are commercially viable,’ [Richard Maulsby, director of the Office of Public Affairs for the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office], says. ‘It's a very small percentage of patents that actually turn into products that make money for people. On top of all that, to get ripped off for tens of thousands of dollars adds insult to injury.” Patent success rates. Patent odds of success. Percent of patents commercialized. (Richard Maulsby, director of public affairs for the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office, quoted in Karen E. Klein, Smart Answers, “Avoiding the Inventor's Lament,” Business Week, November 10, 2005) Order the Official Gazette of the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office on CD ROM...." -- Leia mais:http://www.inventionstatistics.com/Innovation_Risk_Taking_Inventors.html

Podcasts

Novos podcasts: Determinantes macroeconômicas do crescimento econômico Adam Smith: Economia e Sociedade Karl Marx: Economia e Sociedade Corrupção, comportamento eleitoral e desenvolimento econômico

Prova Macro III

Prof. Dr. Antony Mueller Prova 1 Macro III – 23 de Abril 2009 NOME: ..................................................... 1. Define poupança (S) usando as variáveis S, I, s, K, Y S = .................................... 2. Interprete a seguinte equação com um mínimo de palavras Kt+1 – Kt = sYt – δKt .............................................................................................................................. 3. O produto por trabalhador efetivo aumenta/baixa com o aumento do capital por trabalhador com uma taxa a) crescente b) constante c) decrescente 4. A formula xY = f (xN, xK) significa retornos de escala a) constantes b) crescentes c) decrescentes d) elípticos 5. O montante de investimento por trabalhador efetivo necessário para manter um nível constante de capital por trabalhador efetivo e dado por: a) (δ + gA + gN)(K/AN) b) I + S = Y c) Y = C + I + G d) Y = C + I + G + EX – IM e) I = S f) (A + N) = δK g) (δ + gK + gN)(Y/AN) 6. Seguinte da teoria macroeconômica de crescimento econômico é possível que um país pobre torna-se rico? a) Sim, porque tem retornos de capital crescentes b) Sim, porque se pode importar e imitar a tecnologia avançada c) Sim, se os pobres trabalham mais d) Não, porque um país pobre está na armadilha de pobreza para sempre e) Não, porque os países ricos não deixam os países pobres crescer 7. Desenhe a função do produto por trabalhador efetivo (Y/AN) versus o capital por trabalhador efetivo (K/AN) e designe com os símbolos corretos os eixos e a reta: 8. Relacione as taxas de crescimentos (produto por capita) com os períodos Período Taxas de crescimento anual (%) 1. 1500-1700 (Europa) a) 10 b) 5 c)1,5 d) 0,5 e) 0,2 f) 0,1 2. 1700-1820 (Europa) a) 10 b) 5 c)1,5 d) 0,5 e) 0,2 f) 0,1 3. 1820-1950 (EUA) a) 10 b) 5 c)1,5 d) 0,5 e) 0,2 f) 0,1 9. No estado de crescimento equilibrado, o crescimento da renda por capita (Y/N) depende de a) Mais consumidores b) Mais trabalhadores c) Progresso tecnológico d) Mais capital e) Mais dinheiro f) Mais trabalho por capita 10. Complete em (.........) o “circulo de riqueza”: 11. A instituição mais importante para fomentar o crescimento econômico é ...................................................................................................................

Armadilhas em interpretar estadísticas

Porque muitos medicos, journalistas e políticos não saben interpretar correctamente as estadísticas de saúde e fazem falsas conclusões: "SUMMARY Many doctors, patients, journalists, and politicians alike do not understand what health statistics mean or draw wrong conclusions without noticing. Collective statistical illiteracy refers to the widespread inability to understand the meaning of numbers. For instance, many citizens are unaware that higher survival rates with cancer screening do not imply longer life, or that the statement that mammography screening reduces the risk of dying from breast cancer by 25% in fact means that 1 less woman out of 1,000 will die of the disease. We provide evidence that statistical illiteracy (a) is common to patients, journalists, and physicians; (b) is created by nontransparent framing of information that is sometimes an unintentional result of lack of understanding but can also be a result of intentional efforts to manipulate or persuade people; and (c) can have serious consequences for health..." Leia mais: http://www.psychologicalscience.org/journals/pspi/pspi_8_2_article.pdf

Crescimento econômico

Este filme de desenho animado explica a relação entre poupança, investimentos, capital e crescimento econômico: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFxvy9XyUtg&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Elewrockwell%2Ecom%2Fblog%2F&feature=player_embedded O filme está baseado nesta palestra do meu amigo Hans Hoppe: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyeF7H3tHFw

Próximas aulas Macro e Economia Internacional

Por causa do feriado, a próxima aula em Macroeconomia na semana que vem vai ter lugar na quinta, dia 23 de Abril quando temos a prova. A próxima aula em Economia Internacional vai ter lugar na quarta, dia 22 de Abril. Vamos recuperar a aula do dia 20 no fim de semestre. Tarefa para Economia Internacional: Estudar o capítulo 4 e formular perguntas. Na próxima aula começamos o capítulo 5 (Política comerical na prática). A maior importância ten as partes: "Proteção à indústria nascente" "Políticas de empobrecimento do vizinho" "Raúl Prebisch e o processo de substituição de importações"

Macro III. Prova do 23 de Abril

Nas preparações para a prova, procure entender o que significam os seguintes equações: I = S + (T-G) I = S It = sYt I = Δ K I = S = sY = Δ K Y = f(K, N) xY = f (xK, xN) Y/N = F (K/N, N/N) = F (K/N, 1) = F (K/N) Kt+1 = (1 – δ) Kt + It (Kt+1/N) – (Kt/N) = s f(Kt/N) – δ (Kt/N) s f(K*/N) = δ (K*/N) Y*/N = s/δ Y/AN = f (K/AN) I/AN = s (Y/AN) I/AN = s f (K/AN) δK + (gA + gN) K Investimento necessário: (δ + gA + gN) (K/AN) A taxa de crescimento de Y/N é igual a taxa de crescimento de Y menos a taxa de crescimento de N. Logo: A taxa de crescimento de Y/N é (gY – gN) = (gA + gN) – gN = gA O produto (Y) cresce à taxa (gA + gN), o número de trabalhadores cresce à taxa gN, e o produto por trabalhador cresce à taxa gA. Quando a economia está no estado de crescimento equilibrado, o produto por trabalhador cresce à taxa do progresso tecnológico.

Prorogação da prova em Macro III

Decidimos prorogar a prova seguinte os pedidos dos participantes. Em vez de ter lugar o dia 16 de Abril, a prova vai ter lugar o dia 23 de Abril.

Macro III: Recursos para prova de 16 de Abril

Para a preparação da prova, veja e estude as postagens dos dias 14 de Abril abaixo conjunto com as postagens mais antigas do 8 e 7 de Abril e do 31 de Março 2009.

Macro III: Acumulação de capital versus progresso tecnológico

Macro III: Efeitos de um aumento da taxa de poupança

Macro III: Efeitos da taxa de poupança

Macro III: Dinâmica do capital e do produto

Entende as cracterísticas do crescimento equilibrado:

O capital por trabalhador efetivo (TE) e o produto por TE são constantes.

O capital pro trabalhador e o produto por trabalhador crescem à taxa de progresso tecnológico gA.

O trabalho cresce à taxa de crescimento populacional gN.

O capital e o produto crescem a uma taxa igual à soma do crescimento populacional e da taxa de progresso tecnológico (gA + gN).

China reduz a compra da dívida Americana

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/13/business/global/13yuan.html?_r=2&ref=WRH

China perto de $ 2 trilhões em reservas

BEIJING (AP) -- China's central bank said Saturday that its foreign exchange reserves rose 16 percent year-on-year to $1.9537 trillion by the end of March. China's reserves, already the world's largest, increased by $7.7 billion in the first quarter -- $146.2 billion less than the same period last year, the People's Bank of China said in a notice on its Web site. That rise was substantially less than the fourth quarter increase of almost $45 billion, according to China's official Xinhua News Agency, showing the impact of slowing exports due to the financial crisis. In March, the reserves increased by $41.7 billion, it said, $6.7 billion more than the same period last year. Analysts believe China holds up to 70 percent of its foreign reserves in U.S. dollar-denominated assets, including Treasury securities...-- http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-foreign-exchange-apf-14904107.html

Macro III Prova 1

A primeira prova em Análise Macroeconômica é avisada acontecer o 16 de Abril. O tema é o crescimento econômico. A literatura básica é o livro de texto "Macroeconomia" de Olivier Blanchard, os capítulos 10, 11 e 12. Procure aprender interpretar os modelos em seu significativo econômico. Encontre abaixo (pastagem do 7 de Abril) o modelo gráfico básico e uma lista com as fórmulas fundamentais para a sua orientação.

Como confrontar a crise

Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world By Nassim Nicholas Taleb Published: April 7 2009 20:02 Last updated: April 7 2009 20:02 1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest. 2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism. In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal. 3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean. 4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards. 5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. Complexity from globalisation and highly networked economic life needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products. The complex economy is already a form of leverage: the leverage of efficiency. Such systems survive thanks to slack and redundancy; adding debt produces wild and dangerous gyrations and leaves no room for error. Capitalism cannot avoid fads and bubbles: equity bubbles (as in 2000) have proved to be mild; debt bubbles are vicious. 6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning . Complex derivatives need to be banned because nobody understands them and few are rational enough to know it. Citizens must be protected from themselves, from bankers selling them “hedging” products, and from gullible regulators who listen to economic theorists. 7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Cascading rumours are a product of complex systems. Governments cannot stop the rumours. Simply, we need to be in a position to shrug off rumours, be robust in the face of them. 8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial. The debt crisis is not a temporary problem, it is a structural one. We need rehab. 9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. Economic life should be definancialised. We should learn not to use markets as storehouses of value: they do not harbour the certainties that normal citizens require. Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control). 10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. Finally, this crisis cannot be fixed with makeshift repairs, no more than a boat with a rotten hull can be fixed with ad-hoc patches. We need to rebuild the hull with new (stronger) materials; we will have to remake the system before it does so itself. Let us move voluntarily into Capitalism 2.0 by helping what needs to be broken break on its own, converting debt into equity, marginalising the economics and business school establishments, shutting down the “Nobel” in economics, banning leveraged buyouts, putting bankers where they belong, clawing back the bonuses of those who got us here, and teaching people to navigate a world with fewer certainties. Then we will see an economic life closer to our biological environment: smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage. A world in which entrepreneurs, not bankers, take the risks and companies are born and die every day without making the news. In other words, a place more resistant to black swans. The writer is a veteran trader, a distinguished professor at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5d5aa24e-23a4-11de-996a-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss A dimensão da crise vista do banco central Americano: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20090406a.htm

Macro III: Modelo básico de crescimento econômico

O nível de investimento por trabalhador efetivo necessário para manter um dado nível de capital por trabalhador efetivo é representado pela reta positivamente inclinada com uma declividade da reta igual a d + gA + gN.

Macro III: fórmulas básicas de crescimento econômico

O estoque de capital no início do ano t+1 é igual ao estoque de capital no início do ano t adjustado pela depreciação, somado ao investimento duranto o ano t, que, em sua vez, é igual à taxa de poupança multiplicada pelo produto (ou em termos por trabalhador N). -

A mudança no capital do ano t para o ano t+1 é igual ao investimento duranto o ano t menos a depreciação durante o ano t. -

O produto por trabalhador no estado de crescimento equilibrado é igual à razão entre a taxa de poupança e a taxa de depreciação. -

O nível de capital da regra ouro é o nível de capital assoicado ao valor da taxa de poupança que produz o maior nível de consumo no estado de crscimento equilbrado. -

O nível de investimento necessário para manter um dado nível de capital por trabalhador efetivo. -

"Supernovo" - Artigo sobre ciclo de negocios

Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman’s Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations Tara M. Sinclair1 Department of Economics And the Elliott School of International Affairs The George Washington University Washington, DC 20052 tsinc@gwu.edu THIS DRAFT September 14, 2008 JEL Classifications: C22, E32 Keywords: Asymmetry, Unobserved Components, Markov-Switching, Business Cycles Abstract Recent research has shown that unobserved components (UC) models can, under certain conditions, be estimated without imposing the common zero-correlation restriction between the permanent and transitory innovations. Estimates applying this model to US real GDP suggest that US output experiences considerable permanent movements. This result is in stark contrast to the findings based on estimates of zero-correlation models which suggest that fluctuations in output are primarily transitory. If the transitory component of US real GDP is asymmetric, particularly during recessions, then the linear UC model may over-emphasize permanent movements due to the dominance of expansions in the data. This paper produces and estimates an unobserved components model that allows for asymmetric transitory movements and for correlation between all the innovations. The asymmetry is modeled using Markov-switching in the transitory component, in the spirit of Kim and Nelson’s (1999) version of Friedman’s plucking model. The findings suggest that both permanent movements and asymmetric transitory shocks are important for explaining post-war output fluctuations in the U.S. Leia mais

Blanchard

Assiste a entrevista com Olivier Blanchard sobre a política econômica atual e a política de estímulos: http://audiovideo.economist.com/?fr_story=b12e1e4b110ce3cdaded5edea993cc59b5f1b233&rf=bm&source=hptextfeature