segunda-feira, 31 de outubro de 2011

Expectativas racionais

Gross: Additional Easing Programs to Push Yields Higher

Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the additional easing programs hinted at by Federal Reserve officials will push yields on longer-term Treasuries higher.
“Sovereign monetary and fiscal policies, while generating undersized real growth, have managed to produce disproportionally large inflation,” Gross wrote in a monthly investment outlook posted on Newport Beach, California-based Pimco’s website today. “Developed economies -- the U.S. included -- have experienced 3 percent plus inflation in the midst of a New Normal economy. Portfolios should avoid longer dated issues where inflation premiums dominate performance.”
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Comentário: Isto é um exemplo como o mercado financeiro opera aparentemente paradoxial, mas sim, na verdade, mais massa monetária quando cria inflação, não provoca taxa de juros mais baixas, mas sim mais altas, como se vê agora e como e analisado do Bill Gross. Analise como a curva dos termos de rendimentos muda.

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