2018 External Sector Report: Tackling Global Imbalances amid Rising Trade Tensions
July 2018
HIGHLIGHTS
The IMF’s 2018 ESR shows that global current account balances stand at about 3¼ percent of global GDP. Of this, 40-50 percent are now deemed excessive, i.e. some countries are saving too much, and others are borrowing too much. And while global imbalances remain broadly unchanged in recent years, they have become increasingly concentrated in advanced economies.
From a global perspective, excess surpluses have been especially large and persistent in a small group of countries, most prominently in Germany and China, and to a lesser extent, in Korea, Netherlands, Sweden and Singapore. Excess deficits remain mainly in the United States and the United Kingdom, some euro area debtor countries, and a few vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (e.g. Argentina, Turkey).
This finding matters because persistent excess imbalances may become unsustainable, putting the global economy at risk and aggravating trade tensions. They can also make deficit countries vulnerable to sudden reversals of capital flows, when lenders get nervous and pull out their money.
|
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário