ve ignored it and used the probability theory as the sole tool for dealing with both. Part of the problem was that no theory of decision-making under uncertainty existed until recently. Based on Herbert Simon’s work, we are now developing such a theory of intelligent heuristics that are able to deal with situations of uncertainty. The science of heuristics addresses three questions. The first is descriptive: What are the heuristics in the adaptive toolbox of a species, an organization, or an individual, and how do people choose between heuristics? The second is normative: In which situations is a heuristic better than a complex strategy? This question is known as the study of the ecological rationality of heuristics, which proceeds using analysis and simulation. The third question is one of intuitive design: How can systems be designed that help experts and laypeople make better decisions, be it in developing simple rules for safer financial regulation or improving medical diagnosis? The methodological tools are threefold: formal models of heuristics (instead of vague labels such as “System 1”), competitive testing of heuristics against complex strategies (instead of null hypothesis testing), and tests of the predictive power of heuristics (instead of data fitting). The heuristic revolution complements the probabilistic revolution and overcomes the earlier misconception of heuristics as biases."
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